New York Jets analytics-based 7-round mock draft (Vol. 2)

Michael Nania wields the power of advanced statistics to conduct a seven-round 2020 New York Jets mock draft. [sc name="nanianumbers" ] In just two weeks, the most unique NFL Draft in league history will commence. This is the second of a few analytics-based Jets mock drafts I will be concocting. These mocks will be a bit different from anything else out there. I will be relying on the advanced stats to make each selection for the Jets across all seven rounds, going with the best player available according to the data (yes, team needs will be taken into account). These mocks are conducted using The Draft Network's Mock Draft Machine (Predictive Board). No trades are made. Keep in mind that these picks are not necessarily my personal preferences and are based almost entirely on statistics, so don't knock me too harshly! Round 1, Pick 11 Note: rankings are among players in all of college football (Divisions I, II, and III) unless otherwise noted The pick: OT Jedrick Wills (Alabama) Vol. 1 pick: WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma) Also considered: WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama), WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma) Key names off the board: OT Tristan Wirfs (#4, Giants), OT Mekhi Becton (#5, Dolphins), OT Andrew Thomas (#8, Cardinals), LB Isaiah Simmons (#10, Browns) This scenario is a stunner for the Jets. Three of the top four tackles were gone within the first eight picks - Tristan Wirfs went fourth to the Giants, Mekhi Becton fifth to the Dolphins, and Andrew Thomas eighth to the Cardinals. You would fully expect Cleveland to crush the Jets' dreams and take Jedrick Wills at #10, but instead, the Browns shocked the draft community by taking linebacker Isaiah Simmons after his surprising tumble. Perhaps the Browns lost internet connection and were forced to auto-pick? Hey, something like that could happen this year. If this actually played out on draft day, there is no question that Joe Douglas would immediately send the card up to the podium with Wills' name on it (metaphorically, of course, in this particular draft). Jets fans would send their regards to the Browns and begin placing orders for Gotham Green jerseys with the name "Wills" on the back. However, this is not the actual NFL Draft - this is an analytical mock draft! We have to go with the numbers! Do they think Wills is good enough to be chosen here over Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb? The answer is a resounding yes. Wills has the numbers to back up his eye-popping tape. In the talent-stocked SEC, Wills posted incredible run-blocking grades and still maintained stout pass-protection numbers, yielding just 13 pressures (eight hurries, four hits, one sack) over 427 snaps in protection. He is the real deal. Round 2, Pick 48 The pick: WR Tee Higgins (Clemson) Vol. 1 pick: OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia) Also considered: WR K.J. Hamler (Penn St.), WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona St.), WR Michael Pittman (USC), WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame), WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (Michigan) Key names off the board: WR Laviska Shenault (#34, Colts), IOL Lloyd Cushenberry (#39, Dolphins), OT Ezra Cleveland (#45, Buccaneers), OT Austin Jackson (#46, Broncos) After taking a tackle in round one, the hope going into round two is to take a wide receiver. Fortunately, we have plenty of options. Tee Higgins, K.J. Hamler, and Brandon Aiyuk are the analytically-favored options in this scenario. Aiyuk offers a tantalizing blend of after-the-catch prowess and deep productivity. He averaged an absurd 20.2 yards per target on deep opportunities (20-plus yards downfield) while also recording 10.9 yards after the catch per reception. The biggest question mark with Aiyuk is whether he has the ability to win in 50-50 situations, as he came down with only three of 14 (21.4%) contested targets over his career. Hamler is a tremendous play-maker out of the slot. From 2018-19, he collected 41 receptions of 15-plus yards out of the slot, fourth-most in college football. His hands are a major issue, however. On routes out of the slot over the last two seasons, Hamler has caught only 80.7% of his catchable targets, which places him 103rd out of 106 qualifying receivers. Higgins wins out as the best option, offering a combination of elite size (something the Jets sorely lack at wide receiver) and outstanding production. Standing at 6-foot-4 and 216 pounds with 34⅛-inch arms (96th percentile), Higgins ranked second among FBS wide receivers (minimum 300 receiving snaps) with 3.67 yards per route run in 2019, trailing only Lamb. Round 3, Pick 68 The pick: CB Cameron Dantzler (Mississippi St.) Vol. 1 pick: WR Tyler Johnson (Minnesota) Also considered: OT Lucas Niang (TCU), OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn) Key names off the board: WR Michael Pittman Jr. (#56, Dolphins), WR K.J. Hamler (#57, Texans) OT Lucas Niang (#61, Titans), WR Bryan Edwards (#67, Lions) As much as I wanted to continue piling on offensive help for Sam Darnold here, Auburn cornerback Cameron Dantzler was just too good to pass up, and the Jets are sore for help at that position. Dantzler allowed a passer rating of 57.0 on targets into his coverage in 2019, which placed him at the 92nd percentile among cornerbacks. That wasn't even his best season. He allowed a 41.1 rating in 2018 and a 28.9 rating in 2017, giving up one touchdown, five interceptions, and 5.9 yards per target over 31 career games. Dantzler's lankiness (just 188 pounds at 6-foot-2) is an issue, but he still thrived a press-man corner at Auburn. He forced an incompletion (through a deflection, contact, etc.) on 24.1% of targets in 2019, an elite rate. That skill-set could be exactly what is on Gregg Williams' radar. Williams needed to cover up weaknesses at cornerback late in 2019 by playing a lot of conservative zone looks, but he has been known to prefer a more aggressive approach on the outside throughout his career. You can survive by playing Cover-3, as the Jets did in the second half of last season, but having cornerbacks who can win man-to-man adds so much value to a defense. Wide receivers are faced with more unpredictability and have the pressure placed upon them to win battles. Quarterbacks are put in a bind as they are forced to anticipate how rapidly-developing one-on-one matchups will play out, often leading to mistakes. Chances to make plays on the ball increase for the defense. The defensive coordinator enjoys more freedom to get creative with blitz packages and mixing up coverage looks. Just a look at the 2009-10 Jets, who enjoyed all of these luxuries thanks to what Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie could do on the outside. Round 3, Pick 79 The pick: EDGE Darrell Taylor (Tennessee) Vol. 1 pick: IOL Cesar Ruiz (Michigan) Also considered: OG Netane Muti (Fresno St.), IOL Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin) Key names off the board: OT Lucas Niang (#73, Jaguars) We knock out another crucial defensive hole in the third round, going EDGE with Tennessee product Darrell Taylor. Taylor is not a good run defender, ranking at the 25th percentile among edge defenders with a run stop percentage of 4.5%, but that is not what the Jets are after. They need pass-rushing juice - and Taylor offers just that. With 45 pressures (35 hurries, three hits, seven sacks) in 2019, Taylor ranked at the 91st percentile among edge defenders in pass-rush productivity. He relies more on power than speed, but that is a non-issue. Any type of pressure will do for a team that has not had a legitimate threat off the edge in eons. Round 4, Pick 120 The pick: WR Tyler Johnson (Minnesota) Vol. 1 pick: EDGE Alton Robinson (Syracuse) Also considered: IOL Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin), TE Thaddeus Moss (LSU), Key names off the board: OG Netane Muti (#87, Patriots), OT Prince Tega Wanogho (#98, Patriots), WR Van Jefferson (#99, Giants), WR K.J. Hill (#100, Patriots), IOL Shane Lemieux (#119, Falcons) Thaddeus Moss was an intriguing name to see on the board here, but his numbers leave a lot to be desired. While he ranked 14th among the nation's tight ends with 570 receiving yards, Moss played the most receiving snaps of any tight end in college football with 471. His average of 1.21 yards per route run ranked at just the 43rd percentile among tight ends with 200-plus receiving snaps. I settled on Minnesota wide receiver Tyler Johnson, who I took way up at #68 in my first mock. From an analytics standpoint, there is so much to like about Johnson's game. He was insanely productive, ranking third among FBS wide receivers (minimum 300 receiving snaps) in yards per route run with 3.64. In this fantasy mock, the Jets would have added two of the nation's top-three wide receivers in that category with Higgins and Johnson. In 2019, Johnson earned the best overall PFF grade in all of college football with a 91.8, a sign of his ability to make odds-defying grabs and add production above expectation. That was no fluke, as he earned the sixth-best overall grade (89.6) in 2018. He ranked top-10 in yards per route run that season as well. Johnson's athleticism may pale in comparison to other prospects, but the advanced numbers suggest that his outstanding raw production is as legitimate as can be. Round 5, Pick 158 The pick: OG Michael Onwenu (Michigan) Vol. 1 pick: CB Javaris Davis (Auburn) Also considered: CB Josiah Scott (Michigan St.) Michigan State cornerback Josiah Scott caught my eye. He will likely be relegated to the slot in the NFL, as he stands at only 5-foot-9 and was susceptible to allowing big plays (responsible for nine touchdowns in his career), but he offers intriguing upside in the slot. In press-man coverage, he allowed only 27 catches on 71 targets (38.0%) throughout his career. However, having ignored the offensive line since the first round, Michigan guard Michael Onwenu's numbers are a godsend for the Jets at this point in the draft. Over 457 protection snaps in 2019, Onwenu allowed a measly total of nine pressures (6 hurries, 3 hits, 0 sacks), ranking at the 92nd percentile among guards in pass-blocking efficiency. He allowed just four pressures over 404 snaps in protection as a junior in 2018. He also took a step upwards in the run game as a senior, posting a career-best run-blocking grade of 76.3 that ranked fifth-best among Big Ten guards in 2019 (minimum 500 snaps). Round 6, Pick 191 The pick: RB Darius Anderson (TCU) Vol. 1 pick: RB Javon Leake (Maryland) TCU product Darius Anderson offers the track record of elusiveness that you want in a running back prospect. He forced 43 missed tackles on 158 rush attempts in 2019, ranking at the 85th percentile. His average of 3.89 yards after contact per rush attempt was a bit higher, landing at the 87th percentile. While not a versatile or explosive receiver, he has soft hands, catching 22 of 26 targets with zero drops in 2019. Round 6, Pick 211 The pick: WR Isaiah Coulter (Rhode Island) Vol. 1 pick: OT Jon Runyan (Michigan) Isaiah Coulter had a breakout 2019 for FCS Rhode Island, grabbing 71 passes for 1,032 yards and eight touchdowns. He was efficient as well, ranking at the 65th percentile with 2.09 yards per route run. At 6-foot-2, 198 pounds, Coulter has a nice combo of size and route-running finesse. In addition to the competition level, Coulter's issues with drops (7.7% rate) and contested grabs (38.5% rate) are concerning, but hey, this is the 211th overall pick. Coutler's combination of high-volume production and strong efficiency makes him plenty worthy of a selection here in the late-sixth. Here it is, my second analytics-based New York Jets draft class.

Michael Nania wields the power of advanced statistics to conduct a seven-round 2020 New York Jets mock draft.

Round 1, Pick 11

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