Sitting at 2-4, the New York Jets face the stiff challenge of needing to make a red-hot run over the final 11 games to have a chance at the playoffs. The margin for error is slim after a cold start to the year.
Daunting as that may seem, it has been done plenty of times before. Just within the last five seasons (2019-23), there were six teams that started 2-4 and went on to finish with a winning record and a playoff spot. Four of those six teams made it to the divisional round, and two of them made it to the conference championship.
Of those six teams, one stands out as a particularly intriguing comparison for the 2024 Jets.
The 2019 Tennessee Titans
In one specific way, the 2019 Titans may be the closest comparison to the 2024 Jets of any recent team to start 2-4.
Through six games, the Jets are 2-4, but they have a +5 point differential. The disparity between their 2-4 record and +5 point differential can be largely blamed on their poor kicking; they’ve made just 67% of their field goal attempts (4 misses total).
The Titans had a very similar start. They were 2-4, but had a +6 point differential over that span. If it weren’t for their 44% field goal percentage (5 misses total), they probably would have had a better record to match their positive point differential.
It is very rare to see a team start its season in this specific fashion. Over the past 15 seasons, the 2024 Jets and 2019 Titans are the only two teams to start 2-4 with a positive point differential and a sub-70% field goal percentage.
A start like this (outscored opponents overall, but two games under .500 with placekicking likely costing at least one win) is a telltale sign that the team is due to start winning more games when their luck balances out. That was the case for the 2019 Titans, in epic fashion.
The Titans went 7-3 over their final 10 games, finishing 9-7 and earning the AFC’s sixth seed. Not only did they make it into the dance, but they stole the show, winning two playoff games on their way to an AFC Championship Game defeat in Kansas City.
These stark in-season turnarounds usually do not happen out of nowhere. They are often are sparked by a major change. Tennessee’s 2019 turnaround is one of the biggest examples of this.
After starting the year 2-4 behind quarterback Marcus Mariota, the Titans switched to Ryan Tannehill ahead of their seventh game, and Tannehill immediately ripped off two consecutive wins on his way to finishing 7-3 as the Titans’ starter. Tannehill was a massive upgrade, as he finished the season with a league-leading 8.0 net yards per pass attempt versus Mariota’s 5.6, which ranked 29th out of 36 qualifiers.
The Jets will not be switching quarterbacks this week, but like Tennessee, they can bank on some major changes to spark improved play, rather than merely praying for a turnaround out of nowhere. New York named Todd Downing (who was actually the tight ends coach for the 2019 Titans) as the new offensive play caller ahead of last week’s game, resulting in instant positive changes to the team’s offensive identity. They also added superstar wideout Davante Adams this week, who will make his debut in Pittsburgh.
Having made two major changes that can improve the team from where it was at the start of the year, New York has a great chance to mimic what Tennessee did.
Through six games, Tennessee was already playing slightly above-average football in totality (as evidenced by their +6 point differential, or +1.0 per game), but poor kicking dug them into a woeful record when they really “should” have been 3-3 or 4-2. However, having started 2-4, continuing to play “slightly above-average” would not have been good enough for the Titans to forge the type of finish they needed to make the playoffs.
If the Titans continued playing +1.0-level football and their kicking/close-game luck balanced out, they’d probably have finished somewhere around 5-5 or 6-4 over the final 10 games, which would have left them at 7-9 or 8-8. That’s not good enough when you dig yourself into a hole to start the season. Even as a team with a positive point differential, if you want to get from 2-4 to the playoffs, you have to hope your luck improves and play much better football to tilt luck in your favor.
After making the quarterback switch in Week 7, the Titans didn’t just luck into winning more games while playing the same level of football. Their overall performance in totality improved from “slightly above-average” to “great,” as they recorded a substantially better point differential of +66 over the final 10 games (+6.6 per game). That level of play is deserving of a 7-3 record over a 10-game sample. The Titans just needed their close-game luck to balance out so their point differential would translate into a corresponding win total, and that happened for them.
The key to Tennessee’s point-differential spike was their propensity for getting blowout wins and avoiding blowout losses.
Over the final 10 games, the Titans went 4-0 in games decided by 14+ points. In six games decided by 10 points or less, they went an even 3-3. That’s a winning formula. The Titans didn’t need incredible close-game luck to be a 7-3 team. By getting a ton of blowout wins and avoiding blowout losses, they reduced their reliance on nail-biter games that could go either way based on one bounce of the ball.
The Jets must aim to mimic this model going forward.
Sure, you could claim the Jets “should” be 3-3 or 4-2 at this point – based on their +5 point differential (+0.8 per game) and the fact that, as Jets fans know, they likely would have had two more wins if Greg Zuerlein made his late field goals. But they’re not 3-3 or 4-2. They’re 2-4.
So, continuing to play like a +0.8 team won’t be enough to dig themselves out of this hole. If they keep playing at the slightly above-average level they’ve played so far and their kicking/close-game luck balances out, they’ll probably finish 6-5, leaving them at 8-9. If they’re really lucky, they might go 7-4 to finish 9-8, which could be enough for a playoff spot, but they may have to rely on tiebreakers in that scenario, which you never want to do.
As I described recently, the Jets’ goal should be to finish on an 8-3 run, giving them a final record of 10-7. That would all but guarantee them a playoff spot. Since the league expanded to 30 teams in 1995, no 10-win AFC team has ever finished below 7th place in the conference.
Winning 8 of the next 11 games should be the Jets’ standard – especially with the ridiculous amount of talent they have in place and the lofty goals they set before the season. Throw in the league’s easiest remaining schedule based on DVOA, and it is an extremely attainable goal for this team.
Like the 2019 Titans, though, they cannot simply rely on better luck in close games as the path to get there. They need to use their in-season changes to spark much-improved overall play that ensures they will get the 8-3 record they need.
Through six games, the Jets only have one blowout win. Four of their six games went down to the wire. If these trends hold, they will only get two blowout wins over the next 11 games, while approximately seven of their games will be close. To go 8-3 in that scenario, they’d have to go a whopping 6-1 in those seven close games. That isn’t impossible (Hello, 2022 Vikings), but it is extremely difficult.
The goal is to mimic Tennessee’s enormous point-differential improvement, which was sparked by their record in blowouts. Tennessee won four games by 14+ points and did not lose any games by 14+ points. The Jets should aim to do the same. If they pull off the same 4-0 record in games decided by 14+ points, then they only have to go 4-3 in the rest of their games to finish 8-3.
How did Tennessee get so much better at blowing teams out? They finally maximized their high ceiling on offense, which is precisely what the Jets are trying to do.
Like the Jets, the Titans already had a strong defense in place, and they were being held back by their offense. Through six games, the Titans were allowing only 15.3 points per game, compared to the Jets’ current average of 18.0. However, the Titans were scoring a measly 16.3 points per game, not far behind the Jets’ current average of 18.8.
The Titans offense was loaded with talent, though. With A.J. Brown and Corey Davis at wide receiver, Derrick Henry at running back, and a stacked offensive line, they were built to be successful. Once they made the change at quarterback, everything clicked, and they averaged 30.4 points per game over the next 10 games.
Tennessee’s defense actually declined significantly over the next 10 games, allowing 23.9 points per game compared to their 15.3 over the first six games. But the offensive improvement was so enormous that it did not matter. From Weeks 1-6 compared to Weeks 7-17, Tennessee’s leap in points per game (+14.1) was nearly a touchdown larger than the decline in points allowed per game (-8.6). With the combination of an elite offense and a decent defense, the Titans were a great team.
New York’s outlook is very similar. The Jets are loaded with offensive talent, but they just haven’t nailed down the proper chemistry to fire on all cylinders. The quasi-OC change from Nathaniel Hackett to Todd Downing already resulted in major positive signs. Add an all-time-great receiver who has legendary chemistry with Rodgers, and the Jets are poised to start getting the most out of their offensive talent the same way Tennessee did.
Also similar to Tennessee, the Jets could be in for a defensive downturn, as injuries are stockpiling. Jermaine Johnson is already out for the season. Chuck Clark just went on injured reserve. Michael Carter II and D.J. Reed will miss at least the next game and possibly more. C.J. Mosley has been banged-up. Considering the Jets already lost a lot of defensive pieces in the offseason, the unit is starting to look as thin as it has than it has in years. If Haason Reddick never shows up, the Jets’ defensive ceiling might only be “solid” rather than the “elite” tag they flirted with in recent years.
But as the Titans showed, a respectable defense is enough if your offense is outstanding. The Jets have everything they need to start playing like an outstanding offense, and it is time to start showing it on the football field.
New York is far from dead at 2-4. Based on what the Jets have shown so far, they are fully capable of becoming the next team in a long line of them to make the playoffs after starting 2-4. As the 2019 Titans showed, though, these turnarounds do not happen out of nowhere. They are a combination of pre-existing potential and a certain spark to unlock that potential.
The Jets have the pre-existing potential. We know that. Now, with their coaching changes and the addition of Adams, they have the spark, too. All they have to do now is go out and do what the Titans did: maximize their potential on offense, astronomically increase their scoring, and get a healthy collection of blowout wins to reduce their reliance on close-game luck. Do all of that, and the Jets will be on their way to the magical 8-3 finish they are fully capable of achieving.
