Will the New York Jets win another game in 2024?
The question is somewhat rhetorical. The Jets will most likely win another game in 2024. This Jets team is not at the same level as last year’s 2-15 Carolina Panthers. Since the NFL switched to a 17-game format in 2021, no other team has won fewer than three games. At some point, things will even out and the Jets will win a garbage-time game or two. Last year’s team won three of its final five contests.
But is there any game the Jets should be confident about winning? Their only victories are against the Titans and Patriots — teams one spot behind and ahead of their 15th-place ranking, respectively, in the AFC standings. They just lost to those same Patriots.
There is no team remaining on the Jets’ schedule with a worse record than they have. The only team on their schedule with a worse DVOA than theirs is the Miami Dolphins, and the Dolphins have played most of the season with Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley at quarterback. Even the Jaguars have a better team DVOA than the Jets (23rd-ranked vs. 25th).
So while it may be hyperbolic to say the Jets won’t win another game given the way the NFL usually tilts, it’s not as outrageous as it might sound to the more optimistic fan.
More to the point, should the Jets win another game? Is it in their best long-term interests?
Tanking
I evaluated the pros and cons of tanking in an article about the Giants last season. One clear conclusion I drew is that there is no such thing from a player’s perspective.
“From the players’ perspective, there is no such thing as tanking. Each player’s biggest assets are his body, physical talent, and production on the field. No player would risk even one of those assets for the sake of the ‘greater good,’ even those who might seem to have a guarantee to continue with the team long-term. The NFL changes in a heartbeat; one injury or one change of leadership and the completely secure player becomes expendable.”
That continues to be true for the Jets in 2024. While many of their players seem to have no heart invested in the game, they still cannot tank. Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and D.J. Reed could have tens of millions of dollars on the line. Davante Adams, Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, and Mike Williams are fighting to show they still have something left in the tank. Allen Lazard hopes he’s still on an NFL roster next season. This may be Javon Kinlaw’s only chance to be a starter in the NFL.
No Jets player is tanking.
As for the general manager and coach, tanking isn’t an option, either. Both Joe Douglas and Jeff Ulbrich have their jobs on the line. When Woody Johnson said the Jets’ roster is the most talented it has ever been under his ownership, many may have interpreted that to mean Douglas had a measure of job security, but it’s hard to imagine he will be retained if the Jets’ season continues as it has gone thus far.
Ulbrich is the interim head coach. Not only are the Jets 0-3 under his leadership, but they have come apart at the seams even more appallingly than under Robert Saleh despite Haason Reddick’s return and Davante Adams’ arrival. Ulbrich will probably be able to get a defensive coordinator job elsewhere, but he needs to win to secure his own NFL future.
The only person in this equation who may have some incentive to tank is Woody Johnson himself. Former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores alleged owner Stephen Ross offered him money to tank. While the Dolphins weren’t punished because no actual tanking took place, it seems plausible that Flores simply refused Ross’ offer. Still, Johnson is way too sensitive to the media and fans’ perception to consider such a move.
Therefore, tanking won’t happen.
Fan perspective
Do Jets fans want to see the team lose out? This topic seems to divide a fan base tremendously.
Jets head coach Herman Edwards said, “You play to win the game.” But, as stated earlier, that’s what the players and coaches want. Is that what’s best for the team?
Again, I refer to my article about the Giants:
“The question is really about the essence of fandom itself. The diehards will disdain anyone in favor of tanking, calling them “bandwagoners” for not sticking with the team through thick and thin. On the other hand, the pro-tank fans will fire back that they’d prefer to see their team with a chance to build in the long term rather than watching a few wins at the expense of true team-building.”
I don’t know if there is a right or wrong answer here. Fandom is emotional in nature, which makes this question inherently emotional rather than rational.
I will note, though, that in the case of the 2023 New York Giants, losing out would undoubtedly have been the best for the team — as I wrote at the time. General manager Joe Schoen tried desperately to trade up for Drake Maye.
Had the Giants lost out, Schoen would have had his pick of Maye or Jayden Daniels. Regardless of how those picks work out, Schoen sought a new quarterback and could not draft one (at least not one he thought was worthwhile). Instead, the Giants are stuck with another year of the Daniel Jones experience and a bleak future outlook.
Future ramifications
Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap argued that the Jets should completely tear things down despite the dire salary cap ramifications. His reasoning is that the Jets have been in half-in/half-out mode since they fired Mike Tannenbaum in 2012, but if they go into a full rebuild, they can finally build a team the right way instead of constantly trying to paper over holes.
This seemingly ignores what Joe Douglas tried to do in 2020-22. In the first two rounds of those drafts, he picked a quarterback, running back, three wide receivers, a left tackle, a guard, an edge defender, and a cornerback. He definitely whiffed on some premier free agents over that time (Laken Tomlinson, C.J. Uzomah, Corey Davis), but the crux of the issue was that he whiffed in the draft in 2020-21.
Still, Fitzgerald’s overarching point makes sense: the Jets are in no man’s land right now. They have a bunch of aging veterans whose performance is rapidly declining, underachieving young players who will want to be paid soon, and many positions they will not be able to replace in one offseason. Therefore, starting anew makes more sense than playing the halfway game once more.
The first step to starting anew is getting a high enough draft pick to take a top quarterback. Yes, the 2025 quarterback class is considered weak — but the 2021 class was considered quite deep, and look how that turned out. Of course, on the flip side, the 2022 class has been as poor as expected. Drafting a quarterback is always a toss-up, but there is no real alternative in the NFL.
Fitzgerald provides a further explanation for why the Jets should start fresh:
“Teams are competitive even in years they tear things down like this if they make the right draft selections and personnel decisions. The Commanders are 6-2, the Vikings are 5-2, and the Broncos are 5-3 this season. The Broncos and Vikings are one and two in NFL at $81 million and $68 million in dead money while Washington is at $40 million. Teams like the Texans and Bears who have gone through these kind of teardowns recently are playing competitive football.
Of course[,] if you get it wrong you wind up like Carolina, but that is no different than what the Jets have produced for the last 10 years[,] anyway [—] so what do they really have to lose?”
Furthermore, if the Jets do rebuild and draft a quarterback, that passer could be in the best position to succeed with the team since Mark Sanchez. Sanchez walked into an offense littered with talent. The same cannot be said for Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, and especially Zach Wilson. Sanchez was simply a bust, but the other three never really had a chance.
While the Jets certainly may have holes in their offense, they may have as many as four of their five offensive linemen for next season. As poor as the line has been this season, there seems to be enough individual talent for a better offensive line coach to create a cohesive unit. Their pass-catching corps is still severely depleted, but it’s not the worst situation to walk into.
(Additionally, look at Jayden Daniels’ receiving corps. He has Terry McLaurin, a bunch of no-names, and the ghost of Zach Ertz. If a quarterback has adequate protection, or, in Daniels’ case, can create time, the team can at least somewhat compensate for a less-than-ideal pass-catching group.)
The muddy middle
In the NFL, mediocrity often perpetuates more mediocrity. There is no opportunity to make truly franchise-altering draft choices, and big free agency investments usually yield more misses than hits while damaging a team’s salary cap situation.
There are specific instances when mediocrity is a good sign. If a team receives some indication that they have found their franchise quarterback, being okay is a good foundation to build on for the future. This applies particularly if the team has a bedrock of other stars who will be on the team for years to come, especially young players.
For example, the 2022 Lions started 1-6 before winning eight of their last 10 games to finish 9-8. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson unlocked Jared Goff’s strengths. With three key offensive linemen (Taylor Decker, Penei Sewell, and Frank Ragnow), a star receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown), and a promising defensive lineman (No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson), the Lions looked like a team that could build a sustainable future. And with continued team-building, their Super Bowl window appears wide.
The Bears will be happy with mediocrity this season if Caleb Williams develops. Their team isn’t there yet, but they have the foundations of a stingy defense and some exciting offensive pieces.
If a team doesn’t have the quarterback, though, mediocrity is perpetual purgatory. The Jets have seen that over the past few seasons, even with talent at many other positions. They need to start over.
Risk
The biggest risk of starting anew is that the Jets’ young players may want out. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are quite emotional and could very well ask for trades. However, the Jets cannot operate their entire franchise just to keep their young players happy.
Salary cap
Fitzgerald listed the dead cap figures for the Commanders, Vikings, and Bears in 2024. He neglected to mention that the Jets’ will likely be steeper than the other teams’.
Letting Aaron Rodgers go is not optional at this point. The Jets will have a $63 million cap hit in 2026 if they pick up his 2025 option bonus. However, they still have two options if they release him after the season — whether or not to designate him as a post-June 1 release. If they do, his dead cap charge will be $14 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026. If they don’t, the dead cap charge will be $49 million in 2025.
I initially argued that the Jets should designate Rodgers as a post-June 1 release (or retirement) to spread the cap hit over two years. However, Fitzgerald argued, “If you are going to blow it up, just take your lumps now since the salary cap should allow them to do it.”
There can be arguments either way. Assuming the Jets move on from Joe Douglas, the new general manager would likely be inclined to take all the salary cap lumps in 2025, as Fitzgerald described. If Douglas remains, it is harder to say what he will do. Still, considering that Douglas did not designate Laken Tomlinson as a post-June 1 cut last year, it’s certainly possible he would just eat the dead cap in 2025.
Beyond Rodgers, the Jets will have at least $24.4 million in dead cap next year coming from voiding contracts (Tyler Conklin, Mike Williams, D.J. Reed, Javon Kinlaw, and Tyron Smith; some of that may change if they trade any of those players before the deadline).
There are other players the Jets will likely want to release, specifically Allen Lazard, Greg Zuerlein, and Davante Adams. That would add another $17.3 million in dead cap. The Jets could also designate one of them as a post-June 1 cut to mitigate that cost a bit, but if they don’t do it with Rodgers, they’re unlikely to do it with anyone else.
Assuming no post-June 1 cuts, that would bring the Jets to $90.7 million in dead cap — $9 million more than the Broncos after the Russell Wilson debacle.
Then there is C.J. Mosley. This is a disaster of Joe Douglas’ making, as he added considerable dead cap by restructuring Mosley’s contract in 2022 and then deferring even more money on the new deal Mosley signed this offseason. Mosley’s cap hit in 2025 is $12.8 million, but his dead cap charge would be $16.4 million.
Once again, the Jets could post-June 1 him, but they would be unlikely to do it. Can the Jets afford to lose that money? Jamien Sherwood is also a free agent this offseason, and although the Jets will undoubtedly try to re-sign him, his price is likely rising with each successive week.
Perhaps attempting to extend Sherwood now makes the most sense, a la what Douglas did not do with Bryce Huff, which would make releasing Mosley more palatable.
Trades
If the Jets want to go into rebuild mode, they should start at this year’s trade deadline. All of their 2025 free agents or any players they plan to let go after this season should be traded for whatever possible return.
The most obvious trade chip is D.J. Reed. Reed has played poorly over his last two games after an excellent start to the season, but he has been an above-average starting cornerback for four years now. Reed will turn 28 shortly and will likely earn a significant contract in the offseason from a team other than the Jets.
Of course, the Jets could let Reed ride out the season and hope to get a compensatory pick for him, but look at how that worked out with Bryce Huff. If the Jets can get a third or fourth-round pick for Reed now, they should do so.
The rest of the Jets’ tradable players are not nearly as attractive. With so many prominent receiver injuries around the NFL, Davante Adams and Mike Williams could fetch something in return. Would the Jets really flip Adams after picking him up just two weeks ago, though?
Maybe trading Haason Reddick makes more sense now that he is back. He did not exactly do anything in his Jets debut, but nonetheless, teams may hope he can ramp things up as the season goes on. If the Jets can get anything for him, they should trade him.
The only other player to trade is Brandin Echols, who has received interest around the NFL. The Jets might as well trade Echols along with Reed and get a look at Jarrick Bernard-Converse and Qwan’tez Stiggers. Do they have a 2025 starting cornerback on their roster, or will they need to look for one?
Will the Jets make any of these moves? Other than trading Williams, it doesn’t seem all that likely. But if they lose to the Texans on Thursday night to fall to 2-7, is there any way to justify not doing so before the November 5 deadline?
Hope for the future
The Jets’ best hope for the future is to be bad enough to take their quarterback of the future. As much as it hasn’t worked out for them in the past, it’s the only way to succeed in the NFL. The Jets have tried the veteran quarterback route twice under Woody Johnson, and both have ended in disaster.
Sure, the Jets can try to acquire a bridge quarterback next season, but that’s worthwhile only if they also draft a quarterback of the future. (That was one mistake the Jets made with Darnold and Wilson — handing them the keys to the future without any real competition, notwithstanding the faux competition Darnold had with Teddy Bridgewater).
Jordan Travis is not the answer, nor did the Jets expect him to be. They brought him in as a developmental backup quarterback.
This article does not address the coaching and general manager aspect of the equation. The only way the Jets will be able to move forward is if they get those two positions correct (plus the offensive coordinator spot).
But from a personnel perspective, the Jets losing out is undoubtedly the best prospect. Otherwise, they may be able to build a mediocre team for next year, but they will not build any sort of sustainable success.
