28 of the NFL’s 32 teams have completed their first three games of the 2024 season, one of those being the New York Jets. It is still extremely early, but with the season nearly 20% complete, we can start placing at least a smidgen of stock into season-long rankings.
And, boy, are things shaping up nicely for Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers’ rapidly improving Jets offense.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
With Week 3 nearly in the books, the Jets have one of the best offenses in football by quite a few different measures. That’s a sentence Jets fans have not been able to speak (while referencing real life rather than a vivid dream or Madden) in a very long time.
According to the analytics website RBSDM, the Jets currently rank fourth in offensive EPA (Expected Points Added) per play and fourth in offensive success rate.
Offensive EPA Per Play:
- Buffalo Bills (0.219) **2 games played**
- Washington Commanders (0.183) **2 games played**
- New Orleans Saints (0.155)
- New York Jets (0.112)
- Baltimore Ravens (0.104)
- San Francisco 49ers (0.089)
Offensive Success Rate:
- Buffalo Bills (52.0%)
- Kansas City Chiefs (50.5%)
- Detroit Lions (49.3%)
- New York Jets (48.6%)
- Baltimore Ravens (48.5%)
- San Francisco 49ers (48.1%)
Save for the surprising appearance of a Commanders team that has yet to play its third game, the Jets are almost exclusively joined by elite company. The Bills, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, and 49ers are some of the NFL’s most well-established offensive juggernauts of the past few years. That is a great sign that the Jets’ success in these metrics is something worth noting.
For Jets fans, the most promising aspect of these rankings is the idea that New York has barely begun to scratch its ceiling. Through three games, the Jets have noticeably improved each week. That improvement culminated in a dazzling prime-time performance against the Patriots in Week 3 (0.216 EPA per play, 3rd-best of the week), but even in that game, the Jets left plenty of meat on the bone. New York had three trips into New England territory that did not yield any points.
Numerous aspects of the Jets’ offense are still working their way into peak form, the most notable of those being the Aaron Rodgers-Garrett Wilson connection. On the year, Wilson is averaging only 5.0 receptions for 50.0 yards; the latter would be a career-low. Fortunately, though, we can see the potential for this duo to be dominant. Against New England, Rodgers and Wilson barely missed on a plethora of big-play opportunities, contributing to ending multiple potential scoring drives. But the opportunities were there. They just need to get on the same page.
In addition, the Jets are still waiting for their highly talented offensive line to find its groove in the run game. The unit has shown gradual improvement each week, but even in Week 3, when the Jets ran for a season-high 133 yards, those yards were largely created by the fantastic rushing performances of Braelon Allen and Breece Hall. Of their combined 109 rushing yards, 88 came after contact. Allen was particularly stellar, turning multiple hits behind the line of scrimmage into positive gains.
Braelon Allen. #Jets pic.twitter.com/UeC1RCq6Ov
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) September 23, 2024
As for Rodgers himself, the four-time MVP quarterback has looked better and better each week.
Rodgers threw the ball extremely well in his season debut against San Francisco, but he was noticeably unwilling to move. He rarely held the ball for more than a beat or two, and when he did, he almost never left the pocket. He also showed a lack of confidence in other players beyond his most trusted targets, as he threw the ball to only three teammates (although a severe lack of possession time contributed to this issue).
The following week, Rodgers showed a bit more willingness to hold onto the ball and move around, although he looked somewhat uncomfortable when doing so. However, Rodgers spread the ball around to more targets and had success when doing so, delivering clutch throws to all different players as he led the Jets to a comeback win.
Finally, Rodgers put everything together in a Thursday night masterclass that reminded the world why he is in the GOAT conversation. Despite taking the field on a short week, Rodgers appeared to rediscover confidence in his mobility, as he uncorked a bunch of needle-threading throws on the run and added three rushing attempts for 18 yards. Rodgers also excelled in the point guard role, tossing multiple receptions to eight different teammates.
Despite all of these works in progress, the Jets are still the NFL’s fourth-best offense in EPA per play and success rate. Let that one sink in.
As raw as this unit has looked to Jets fans, it’s already one of the league’s best units. With the best yet to come, the next step is the throne.
