Tonight marks arguably the most critical test for the New York Jets offense since… who knows when?
The Jets had Super Bowl aspirations entering the 2024 season, only to get off to a start so disappointing that it resulted in Robert Saleh getting the boot after just five games. That disappointment had very little to do with a defense that currently ranks second-best in yards per game.
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Rather, Saleh’s firing was entirely due to a wildly underwhelming offense that ranks 27th in yards per game despite having one of the NFL’s most star-studded rosters on paper. The Jets also responded by demoting Nathaniel Hackett and turning his duties over to Todd Downing.
Fortunately for the Jets, despite all of the woes and drama through five games, they are one Monday Night Football win away from controlling their own destiny in the AFC East. It would be the first time the Jets held first place in the AFC East this late in the season since Week 12 of 2010.
The Jets still have all of their hopes and dreams right in front of them. But if they are going to even sniff those hopes and dreams, let alone achieve them, it all comes down to whether they can start playing up to their talent level on offense.
That brings us to tonight’s game against the division-rival Buffalo Bills. On a pivotal night for New York’s offense, a massive injury in Buffalo gives the Jets the window of opportunity they could maximize to get their offense back on track.
Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver is officially out with a hamstring injury. This is a huge loss for Buffalo.
Oliver has missed two games since 2023, and the Bills lost both of them. This includes last week’s 23-20 loss in Houston and a 29-25 loss to the Patriots in Week 7 of 2023. That Patriots team went on to win only four games while finishing 31st in scoring; their 29 points in that game turned out to be their best output of the season.
Specifically, Buffalo’s pass defense has suffered without Oliver. He is one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL, and the Bills have not looked the same without his impact.
Among the Bills’ 22 games since 2023, their two worst performances in terms of opponent yards per pass attempt were the two games that Oliver missed; they allowed 8.9 Y/A against New England and 8.7 against Houston.
Across the 20 games with Oliver on the field, their worst opponent Y/A was 8.2 against an elite Ravens team, and they allowed under 8.0 Y/A in each of the other 19 games. Their average opponent Y/A in games with Oliver healthy was a dominant 5.8.
One of the big reasons for the drop-off without Oliver is the lack of pass-rush juice. Buffalo had just one sack in each of the two losses with Oliver sidelined. In 20 games with him, they averaged 3.3 sacks per game.
With Oliver sidelined, the Jets have a significant mismatch on their hands – one they need to maximize if they are going to have a successful night offensively.
The Jets’ interior offensive line against the Bills’ Oliver-less interior defensive line is the single biggest edge in favor of New York’s offense tonight. For all of the Jets’ offensive struggles, their interior pass protection has been solid.
Alijah Vera-Tucker is the highest-graded pass-blocking right guard in the NFL at Pro Football Focus. John Simpson ranks eighth-best among left guards. Center Joe Tippmann has been up-and-down, ranking 19th among centers, but that’s not bad for the weakest link of a group with two top-8 guards. Overall, it is one of the sturdier interior pass-blocking trios in the league.
The Bills’ interior defensive line is at a significant disadvantage against Simpson, Tippmann, and Vera-Tucker. Past Oliver, Buffalo’s leader in pressures from the interior is DaQuan Jones, who is tied for 42nd among defensive tackles with just 8 of them. After Jones, the next men up are DeWayne Carter and Austin Johnson, who are tied for 90th with 3 pressures.
Oliver is also the only Bills defensive tackle with a sack this season.
Buffalo severely lacks pass-rush juice from the interior with Oliver off the field, and they’re about to face an interior trio that has done a good job in pass protection this season. For a New York offense that has struggled to generate consistency in just about every area outside of interior pass protection, this is their lone clear-cut mismatch on paper going into tonight’s matchup.
If the Jets are going to forge their long-awaited offensive breakout tonight, it is imperative to maximize their greatest on-paper advantage. The interior offensive line has a chance to create cushy pockets for Aaron Rodgers all night long. Get it done, and this could be a fun night for Jets fans.
