Examining the value of Joe Douglas’ recent trades for the New York Jets

Joe Douglas has been finding ways to squeeze some value out of expendable pieces on the New York Jets roster. With the recent trades of Jordan Willis (to San Francisco), Steve McLendon (to Tampa Bay), and Avery Williamson (to Pittsburgh), Joe Douglas recouped some value for a trio of players that most likely were not going to be a part of the organization in 2021. Willis, a third-round pick of the Bengals in 2017, has been a fringe player in the NFL. At the time of the trade, he had played only 46 snaps over two games for the Jets this season, being listed as a gameday inactive in his most recent few games. Willis has just three sacks in 44 career games over four seasons. Even from a pressure-producing perspective, Willis' career pressure rate of 7.6% is well below the 2020 EDGE average of 10.5%. Douglas was somehow able to use Willis to turn a 2021 seventh-rounder into a 2022 sixth-rounder. McLendon is still a solid player, but he is going to turn 35 years old in January and was set to become a free agent after the season anyway. His odds of returning next season were very low. Douglas flipped McLendon to Tampa Bay to turn a 2023 seventh-rounder into a 2020 sixth-rounder. Formerly a top-tier inside linebacker, Williamson has taken a huge step back following his return from an ACL injury, allowing the most yards (404) and catches (37) among linebackers this season. Hours before being sent to Pittsburgh, Williamson had a nightmarish game against the Chiefs in which he allowed 13-of-13 passing on throws in his direction for 190 yards, two touchdowns, and nine first downs. He is going to be a free agent following the season's conclusion. By shipping a player on an expiring contract who is producing at an atrocious level to the Steelers, Douglas turned a 2022 seventh-rounder into a 2022 fifth-rounder. Using three players who were almost guaranteed to provide the Jets with absolutely no value in 2021 and beyond, Douglas converted three seventh-round picks into two sixth-round picks and a fifth-round pick. Exactly how much positive value did Douglas net the Jets by making those three climbs up the draft board? Let's dig into the data. This chart showcases the average amount of "approximate value" (AV) that players selected in each round have produced per season (from 2010-19). As explained here, AV is Pro Football Reference's estimate of a player's impact. Click here to check out the Jets' all-time AV leaders and get a feel for the stat. The average amount of AV produced per season by fifth-round picks in the 2010s was 1.4. Sixth-round picks produced 0.89 AV per season while seventh-round picks produced 0.58. So, the three seventh-rounders that the Jets initially owned should be expected to produce a combined total of 1.74 AV per season based on the data above. The composite package that the Jets received in return - two sixths and a fifth - should be expected to produce a combined 3.18 AV per season. That's an increase of 82.8%. On a per-player basis, the Jets' three newly-acquired picks should be expected to produce 1.06 AV per season compared to the 0.58 of the three seventh-rounders. While an increase of 0.48 is hardly a groundbreaking one, it's something, and when you can get something for pieces that were going to give you nothing, it's a victory. Here are a few more charts showcasing the difference in value between the final three rounds. This chart showcases the percentage of seasons in which picks from each round have made a Pro Bowl. This is a look at the percentage of seasons in which picks from each round have been a primary starter (8+ starts) for their team. This is a look at the percentage of all possible regular season games that players picked in each round have appeared in. Not to mention, fifth and sixth-round picks can be massive weapons on the trade market. Teams use Day 3 selections to buy low on great players all the time. Desmond King, who has been a fantastic slot corner throughout his four-year career, just got sent to the Titans for a sixth-round pick. Another deal: The #Chargers are trading DB Desmond King to the #Titans for a 6th rounder, source said. — Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 2, 2020 The Cardinals got Kenyan Drake for a sixth last season, and he has averaged 90.3 scrimmage yards per game since joining Arizona. Dallas got Robert Quinn for a sixth last season as well, and he proceeded to have an 11.5-sack season. Back in 2015, the Jets got Brandon Marshall for a fifth-rounder, and he set the franchise's single-season receiving yardage record. Baltimore acquired star defensive end Calais Campbell from the Jaguars for a fifth this past offseason, and Campbell has continued to be a star this season. There are far fewer examples like this for trades involving seventh-rounders as the centerpiece. Plus, as Robby Sabo details, there is value to be gained from making moves that showcase respect for veteran players by trading them to contenders. It's great to improve future draft position. It's even better to trade hardworking veterans to winning teams during such a lost season. Players and agents remember these "respect" moves on the part of a general manager. Solid job by Joe Douglas, again. #TakeFlight — Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) November 2, 2020 Subtle things like this can help a general manager and his organization build credibility, something the Jets have lacked for a long time. Having the trust and respect of people around the league is hugely important, playing a big role in increasing a team's desirability as a destination for not only free agent players, but coaches and front office staff members as well. Shrewd work by Douglas so far. With the trade deadline looming at 4 p.m. tomorrow afternoon, Douglas still has about 25 hours to do some more wheeling and dealing.