Analyzing New York Jets LB Jarrad Davis’ strengths and weaknesses

The New York Jets added Jarrad Davis to boost the linebacker room, but is he capable of starting in an every-down role? The New York Jets kicked off their 2021 free agency spending spree by signing former Detroit Lions linebacker Jarrad Davis, a Florida product who was the 21st overall pick in the first round of the 2017 NFL draft. Linebacker was a prime need for the Jets entering the offseason. Making the switch to Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich's 4-3 defense, they needed to find a starter to place next to C.J. Mosley and a third linebacker who could rotate in whenever the team places a three-linebacker look on the field. Which role will Davis fill? Which role should he fill? Let's dig into his strengths and weaknesses. Positives Much-improved 2020 season Davis (6-foot-1, 245 pounds) had a rough first three seasons as a starter for the Lions (more on that later). In 2020, Detroit moved Davis into a limited role that placed him on the field for only 23.5 snaps per game, or about 34% of the Lions' defensive snaps on average. That switch proved to be a productive one for Davis. He allowed a career-low 7.9 yards per reception, posted a career-high 72.1 coverage grade at Pro Football Focus, and all-in-all, mustered up an overall PFF grade of 62.2 that was also a career-high and placed him at the 70th percentile among qualified linebackers. Davis gave up a career-low 5.4 yards after the catch per reception and committed zero penalties, his first season with fewer than four penalties. Pass rushing One thing that Davis has always done well throughout his career is get after the quarterback. He has 68 pressures on 301 rush opportunities, a blistering rate of 22.6% that is significantly higher than the 2020 linebacker average of 14.3%. With 10.5 sacks and 23 quarterback hits in his 55 career games, Davis has posted about 3.1 sacks and 6.7 quarterback hits per 16 games. He had a six-sack season back in 2018. Forcing fumbles Davis has a great feel for punching the ball loose. He has forced seven fumbles over 305 career tackles, a rate of 2.3%. That ranks third-best among linebackers with at least 300 tackles since 2017, trailing only Jamie Collins (2.5%) and Lavonte David (2.6%). Negatives Track record as a starter Davis started every game he appeared in for the Lions over his first three seasons, and he generally did not play well. Here are some of his most noticeably poor numbers from 2017-19 and where they ranked among linebackers with at least 500 snaps. 2019: 38.6 overall PFF grade (worst among LB with 500+ snaps), 15.4 yards per reception allowed (worst) 2018: 51.0 overall PFF grade (54th of 61), 17 missed tackles (6th-most) 2017: 52.8 overall PFF grade (55th of 65), 19 missed tackles (3rd-most) Tackling Missed tackles have been a problem for Davis throughout his career. With 57 career missed tackles against 301 career defensive tackles, Davis has a missed tackle rate of 15.7% that stomps the 2020 positional average of 10.7%. He did not improve in this area in 2020, actually getting worse as he missed 10 tackles against 42 defensive tackles for a gruesome 19.2% miss rate. That ranked third-worst among qualified linebackers. Run defense Davis does not have a very good resume against the run with a composite career run defense grade of 50.5 at PFF (2020 LB average: 55.3). He has not ranked in the top half of PFF's run defense grade since his 2017 rookie season. His career missed tackle rate against the run is 13.9%, beating the 2020 linebacker average of 10.0%. Pre-2020 coverage Davis did not produce well in coverage prior to the 2020 season. Keep the sample sizes in mind here - just 123 coverage snaps in 2020 versus 1,201 from 2017-19. Other notes Age/Durability Davis is 26 years old and will turn 27 in November, placing him in the heart of his prime. In terms of durability, Davis has played in 55 out of 64 possible games in his career, an 85.9% rate and an average of 13.8 games per season. Davis missed two games in 2020, one due to COVID-19 and one the following week with a knee injury. In 2019, Davis missed five games. He missed the first two games of the season with an ankle injury and the final three games with another ankle injury. Davis had a 16-for-16 year in 2018. In his 2017 rookie season, he missed two games with a concussion. Usage/role Davis averaged 23.5 snaps per game for the Lions in 2020, playing about 34% of the team's defensive snaps in his average game. He participated in as few as 17% of the plays and as many as 63%. That was a huge slice compared to 2019 when he played about 90% of the snaps in his average game and logged 65.4 snaps per contest. The playing time that Davis received in 2020 makes him a perfect fit to fill the No. 3 linebacker role in the Jets defense. Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich's 2020 defenses gave a very similar amount of playing time to their third linebackers. In San Francisco, Azeez Al-Shaair played 29% of the snaps, while in Atlanta, Mykal Walker played 36% of the snaps. Walker played anywhere from 15% to 56% of the snaps in the majority of his games - extremely similar to Davis' range of 17% to 63%. Davis is capable of occasionally kicking out to the edge, playing outside linebacker (on the line of scrimmage) on 8.5% of his snaps over the past two seasons. He has also dabbled in slot cornerback (2.1%) and outside cornerback (1.9%). Typically, Davis would play either the MIKE (middle) or SAM (strong-side) linebacker spot when he subbed in for the Lions in 2020. He rarely lined up on the weak side of the formation, but he did play at WILL occasionally. Detroit began using Davis more frequently on special teams in 2020 due to his diminished defensive role, and he had some success. Davis played 40 snaps for the kickoff coverage team - a unit he had never been a part of in the NFL (not even in the preseason) - and he made four tackles without missing any. Davis also rushed for the punt return and field goal block units. Film Target prevention was a key aspect of Davis' improved coverage in 2020. He was credited with a target in his direction once every 8.4 snaps in coverage, a rate that ranked at the 78th percentile among linebackers with at least 100 cover snaps. Here, Davis shows off an example of how linebackers can prevent targets in their direction. As the MIKE linebacker in a 4-3 under look, Davis jumps the tight end's out-breaking route before the tight end even makes his outside break, prompting Kirk Cousins to hold the ball and take a sack from Romeo Okwara. Playing 3-4 WILL (a rare weak-side rep), Davis stays disciplined in his hook/curl zone on this play, showing good spatial awareness as he avoids any compulsive movements and understands where the threats are. He mirrors Watson's eyes and movements, sliding with him toward the sideline and blocking the throwing lane for two potential targets in the end zone. As Watson scrambles, Davis makes the right decision to vacate his zone and pursue, pressuring Watson into throwing the ball away. This next play is a really nice fundamentally-sound rep from Davis and a preview of a matchup that Jets fans could see twice in 2021 if both players are healthy. Playing 3-4 MIKE, Davis avoids biting too hard on the play fake and stays put in his zone. When Derrick Henry leaks out of the backfield, Davis angles his body to defend the checkdown to Henry, prompting Ryan Tannehill to keep the ball and escape the pocket. Davis chases Tannehill outside to take away the scramble, forcing Tannehill to flip the ball to now-Patriots tight end Jonnu Smith. Davis continues sprinting and lays a hard shot on Smith. Some good and bad here from Davis. Again playing 3-4 MIKE, Davis bites hard on a pump fake by Drew Brees, allowing a catch to the tight end (Josh Hill), but Davis recovers and gets back into the play, forcing a fumble from behind. Let's take a few looks at Davis' abilities as a rusher. Standing up over the B-gap, Davis rushes against the center. The center opens his hips up aggressively to the outside, so Davis gets his hands inside and creates some push before disengaging and taking advantage of the opened gate. Davis gets the hit on Matt Ryan, forcing an incompletion. As the lone off-ball linebacker here, Davis shows a blitz through the right A-gap before skipping over to the left A-gap. Davis gets skinny to slip past the left guard. Saquon Barkley tries to pick up Davis, but is unable to square up his target as Davis lays his shoulder into Barkley's shoulder, flattening the star running back. Davis hits Daniel Jones and forces him to throw an inaccurate pass. Davis shows off why he can occasionally play the edge on this rep. Lined up out wide, Davis rushes one-on-one against the right tackle. Davis flashes his hand to draw the RT's hands before transitioning into a speed rip. The RT gets Davis into the ground, but Davis squeaks by just enough to get his hands on Watson's legs, pressuring him into stepping up. Davis stays with the play and piggybacks Watson from behind for a half-sack. This isn't an actual rush, but Davis makes a great play as the QB spy on Deshaun Watson, mirroring Watson's scramble to force him into making a low-percentage throw that gets deflected. Davis was a coverage liability over his first three seasons, so let's take a look at some examples of those struggles. Davis is not a guy who can be counted on to run up the seam effectively. Here are two examples. First, Davis mans up against Chiefs running back Darrel Williams out of the backfield. Davis takes too hard of a downhill angle and Williams zooms straight past him for the 30-yard pickup. This time, Davis is not in man coverage, but he is tasked with picking up the point man of the bunch (Marcell Ateman) and running with him up the seam. Davis picks up the route too late and does not have the recovery speed to make up for it. Man coverage isn't a forte of Davis', either. Kyle Rudolph schools him here, getting Davis to bite hard on an outside jab before cutting back over the middle. Finally, let's check out some of Davis' struggles against the run, especially with missed tackles. Davis does a nice job of finding the football on this play, getting a good jump and fending off the right tackle to track down Aaron Jones from the back side, but he misses the tackle and Jones goes on to score. On the front side of this outside zone play, Davis is a step late off the ball as his eventual matchup, the left guard, gets plenty of momentum to the outside before Davis even budges. The LG is able to get some explosion upfield, meeting Davis two yards downfield and generating some downfield push on Davis, knocking him about four yards off the ball. Davis is able to shed the block and meet Derrick Henry as he rumbles through the B-gap, but Henry shakes Davis off with ease. No missed tackle here, but Davis pursues too hard to the front side on this toss play, allowing Aaron Jones to cut back and zip by him for 12 yards. The Jets' approach at linebacker in free agency thus far has been a bit puzzling. They entered the offseason needing two players at the position - a starting every-down WILL to place beside C.J. Mosley and a third linebacker who would play a key rotational role that figures to put him on the field for approximately one-third of the defensive snaps. Joe Douglas and company rushed to sign Davis on the first day of legal tampering, but even with one gaping hole remaining at the linebacker position after signing Davis, they proceeded to watch substantially better linebacker options such as Jayon Brown, Nicholas Morrow, and Keanu Neal (who will be converting from safety) go off the board for one-year deals at cheaper costs than Davis. Starting Davis in an every-down role is a questionable proposition. He struggled in all three of his seasons as a starter, while players like Brown and Morrow - who each fetched less money than Davis - actually have track records of strong play as starters, especially in coverage. It would have been a tremendous idea to sign one of those two players (or Neal, if the Jets believed in his transition to safety) to start next to Mosley and kick Davis to the No. 3 role that he excelled in last year. Instead, the Jets have been highly passive on this market, and they're left with a very thin position group. Of course, no team can force a player to sign with them, and every player has multiple teams interested in them. You can never knock a team for not signing a given player. Teams quite simply cannot control a player's decision. However, I do think it is fair to criticize the Jets for their overall approach at this position so far. Linebacker was and is a major need for them, but they have not treated it that way. It's not as if they missed on one expensive star who opted to sign with a two-time reigning conference champion, a la Joe Thuney - multiple high-quality players have signed for price tags that are substantially lower than any follower of the sport would have expected pre-free agency. Considering how much cap space the Jets still have ($30.9M as of Sunday morning, 4th-most) and how incredibly affordable Brown, Morrow, and Neal turned out to be, it would have been understandable if the Jets got aggressive in looking to outbid the competition to fill an important hole. Spending a couple of extra millions to get one of the market's top-tier players at a reasonable cost would have been a smart usage of cap space, not a wild overpay in the mold of signings like Mosley (who, despite his status as an excellent player, was certainly overpaid massively) and Trumaine Johnson. As for Davis, he projects well to a No. 3 linebacker role in this defense. In 2020, his enormous decrease in snaps was accompanied by a remarkable increase in productivity. His athleticism and blitzing ability should shine in a limited role. Now, the key for the Jets is finding a truly reliable starter so that Davis can stay in the role that he succeeded in last year. K.J. Wright (Seahawks) and Eric Wilson (Vikings) are two remaining free agents who can hold down the starting WILL spot and provide high-quality coverage. If Davis is forced to start and play every down, there is a decent chance that he proves to be a liability.