Best Week 9 prop bets for New York Jets-Indianapolis Colts
On the other side, the Indianapolis Colts (3-5) are in the doldrums after losing a crucial divisional matchup with the Titans, crushing their chances at competing for the AFC South title.
Nevertheless, oddsmakers still love the Colts’ chances of winning handily as they host the Jets on Thursday night. Most outlets have the Colts as 10.5-point favorites.
Here are some of the most intriguing prop bets to consider for the game, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mike White: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+114)
While it is understandably nerve-wracking to rely on White after only one good start, this matchup is a juicy one for him to keep his success going.
Indianapolis has allowed 19 touchdown passes this season, the second-worst total in football. That’s an average of 2.4 per game.
Six of the eight starting quarterbacks to face the Colts this season were able to throw at least two touchdown passes. Only Jimmy Garoppolo (1) and Davis Mills (0) failed to hit the mark.
Mike White has thrown four touchdown passes over 77 pass attempts to begin his career, a rate of 5.2% that is above the NFL average of 4.7%. He tossed three scores last week against a top-notch Bengals defense that entered the game having allowed only seven, tied for third-fewest in the NFL.
The Jets’ 30th-ranked scoring defense could struggle to keep up with the red-hot Colts offense, which has dropped at least 30 points in three consecutive games and at least 25 points in five consecutive games. Because of this, White could be forced into throwing the ball frequently throughout all four quarters, giving him plenty of opportunities to go over the 1.5-touchdown mark.
Look for White to launch another pair of scores against a Colts defense that is susceptible to aerial damage – especially in a likely shootout.
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Mike White: Longest pass Over 34.5 yards (-113)
White’s longest completion against the Bengals only went for 26 yards, but there are a few factors working in his favor that could allow him to pull off a chunk gain of at least 35 yards in Indy.
The Colts’ last line of defense is flimsy. With Julian Blackmon and Khari Willis sidelined, Indianapolis will be starting two backup safeties, Andrew Sendejo and George Odum.
These injuries only perpetuate the struggles that Indianapolis has already had with preventing long passing plays. The Colts have given up a completion for 35+ yards in five of their eight games this season, tied for the sixth-most such games in the league.
The second factor working in White’s favor is that the Colts will likely build their game plan around taking away the short passing game and making White beat them deep against man coverage.
Against Cincinnati, White had zero completions that traveled over 20 yards downfield. He only had four completions against man coverage.
Indianapolis is a zone-heavy team that plays with a similar approach to the Bengals team that White just squashed, but the Colts have the advantage of seeing a full game of tape on White’s strengths and weaknesses, which the Bengals did not. Matt Eberflus is a good defensive coordinator and knows he must adjust to shut down the extremely conservative attack that White commanded last week.
An aggressive defensive game-plan that forces downfield throws will give White plenty of chances to notch that one big completion he needs to win you this bet.
White could also hit the over on a short pass. The Colts have the second-worst cornerback unit in the NFL when it comes to missed tackles, with 23 misses total (2.9 per game). New York shredded the Bengals in the screen game, and Cincinnati is the only team whose corners have missed more tackles than the Colts’. There is a decent chance that a screen could break loose against this whiff-prone secondary.
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Michael Pittman Jr.: Under 68.5 receiving yards (-110)
Michael Pittman Jr. is the Colts’ clear-cut top passing option with team-highs of 5.6 receptions per game and 74.3 receiving yards per game.
However, the Jets’ cornerbacks have been shutting down top wideouts all year.
Here is what the Jets have given up to No. 1 receivers this season (designated based on the opposing team’s leader in snaps played among wide receivers for that game):
- D.J. Moore: 6 catches for 80 yards
- Jakobi Meyers: 4 catches for 38 yards
- Courtland Sutton: 5 catches for 37 yards
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 3 catches for 29 yards
- Olamide Zaccheus: 2 catches for 20 yards
- Jakobi Meyers: 5 catches for 44 yards
- Ja’Marr Chase: 3 catches for 32 yards
That’s an average of 40.0 yards per game, going under the 68.5-yard mark by more than 20 yards in six consecutive games since allowing D.J. Moore to hit 80 yards in the season opener.
While that list is not made up of many impressive names, the Jets passed their biggest test in Week 8 against Ja’Marr Chase, holding him to 32 yards after he came in averaging 107.7. Additionally, Courtland Sutton’s total of 32 yards stands as his second-worst mark of the year, as he is averaging 78.1 yards in all other games.
Indianapolis is likely to shy away from the outside passing game and focus on attacking the Jets’ linebackers and safeties, who have been getting scorched by tight ends and running backs in the passing game.
The Jets have allowed the most receiving yards per game to running backs (79.0) and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (66.0). Meanwhile, Colts quarterback Carson Wentz has had a lot of success when targeting his non-wide receivers, tossing six touchdowns and earning a 100.4 passer rating.
Running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines should be focal points, in addition to tight ends Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle. So, Pittman Jr. could take a schematic back seat in addition to facing the matchup difficulty of a tough Jets cornerback group that is having a good season.