Best Week 11 prop bets for New York Jets-Miami Dolphins
Reeling from back-to-back blowout losses, the New York Jets (2-7) are hoping to get their season back on track during an eight-game stretch that gives them the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL (.400 winning percentage).
Kicking off that stretch of beatable opponents is the division rival Miami Dolphins (3-7), who have won two consecutive games after a 1-7 start.
New York is 2-2 at home and will look to improve upon the 0-4 record that Joe Flacco posted as the team’s starting quarterback in 2020. The Dolphins are 1-4 on the road. Miami is a 3.5-point favorite at most outlets.
Here are some of the most intriguing prop bets to consider for the game, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Elijah Moore: Over 32.5 receiving yards (-110)
Elijah Moore is averaging only 34.3 receiving yards per game this season, but he has caught fire recently.
Over his last three games, Moore averaged 65.0 receiving yards, posting at least six targets and 44 yards in each game.
Miami is allowing 188.7 yards per game to wide receivers this season, ranking as the fourth-most in the NFL. Moore should eat a large slice of that pie considering that much of the aerial success allowed by Miami has been yielded to rotational receivers rather than go-to weapons.
The Dolphins are allowing 74.3 receiving yards per game to wide receivers who are not their team’s No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver, which ranks second-highest in the league.
Despite his production, Moore is essentially the Jets’ third wide receiver right now. Since Week 3, he has played only 50% of the Jets’ offensive snaps on average, and he typically ranks third or fourth among the team’s wide receivers in snaps played. Last week, he was third behind Jamison Crowder and Corey Davis. Moore was not a starter in any of his past five games.
Facing a bad pass defense that particularly struggles to stop wideouts who play a supporting role, the red-hot Moore should have no problem going over 32.5 yards.
Plus, Joe Flacco showed in 2020 that he can unlock the full potential of the explosive wideouts around him. Second-round rookie Denzel Mims posted 71 yards and 62 yards in his two outings with Flacco under center, which still stand as his best and third-best career totals. Mims averaged only 32.0 yards in his seven games with Sam Darnold.
The alternate line of 40+ receiving yards for Moore at +134 is one I would be comfortable bumping up to.
Alternate Elijah Moore lines:
- 25+ receiving yards (-200)
- 40+ receiving yards (+134)
- 50+ receiving yards (+225)
- 60+ receiving yards (+360)
- 70+ receiving yards (+550)
Michael Carter: Over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
Michael Carter ranks eighth among running backs with 34.0 receiving yards per game this season. Over his last four games, Carter is averaging 60.5 receiving yards, posting at least 37 yards in each game.
There is some concern that Carter’s receiving production may dip with Flacco under center instead of the conservative Mike White. Joe Flacco was an aggressive quarterback while playing under Adam Gase in 2020.
However, when he last played in a Shanahan scheme like Mike LaFleur’s, Flacco was actually a very conservative quarterback who provided a substantial boost to his running backs’ receiving production. That was with the Broncos in 2019 under offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello.
In 2019, Flacco’s average pass traveled only 7.1 yards downfield, ranking fifth-lowest out of 39 qualified quarterbacks. As a checkdown maestro, Flacco loved throwing to his running backs, tossing them 6.9 receptions for 47.6 yards per game. In six of Flacco’s eight games, either Royce Freeman or Phillip Lindsay (Denver’s two primary RBs) eclipsed 24.5 receiving yards.
Freeman and Lindsay averaged 22.8 and 20.0 yards, respectively, over Flacco’s eight games. After Flacco was benched, they averaged 9.3 and 4.5 yards throughout the rest of the year, respectively.
Neither Freeman nor Lindsay is known for their receiving, but Flacco had them making plenty of plays in the passing game during his time as a Shanahan quarterback. Imagine what he could do with Carter, who is significantly more talented as a receiver than either of those two players.
Miami ranks in the middle of the pack with 37.3 receiving yards per game allowed to running backs this season, ranking 16th-lowest. The Dolphins have allowed a running back to catch for over 24.5 yards in six of their 10 games.
However, the Dolphins have not faced a difficult schedule of pass-catching backs. They’ve only faced one of the league’s top-eight running backs in receiving yards per game. Carter will be a new challenge for them.
Like Moore, Carter’s alternate line of 40+ yards is intriguing. At +230, that could be a worthy play considering Carter hit the mark in three of his past four games.
Alternate Michael Carter lines:
- 25+ receiving yards (-112)
- 40+ receiving yards (+230)
- 50+ receiving yards (+390)
- 60+ receiving yards (+630)
Myles Gaskin: Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
We flip to the Miami side, where the Dolphins should be able to exploit a Jets defense that has been getting beaten by the same things every week throughout the season.
This should be an easy one. Gaskin might be able to clear this mark on one reception in the first quarter.
The Jets are allowing 71.4 receiving yards per game to running backs, which ranks second-worst behind only the Seahawks. Most importantly regarding this bet, they have allowed a running back to post at least 21 receiving yards in all nine of their games this season.
Gaskin is averaging 20.2 receiving yards per game and has posted over 20.5 receiving yards in just four of his 10 games, but against this Jets team, every running back looks like Marshall Faulk in the passing game.
I’m liking the alternate line of 60+ receiving yards for Gaskin at +800. The Jets have allowed a running back to catch for 60+ yards in four games this season.
Two of the players to do it are stud receivers – Christian McCaffrey and Cordarrelle Patterson – but two others, Brandon Bolden (79 for Patriots in Week 7) and Jeremy McNichols (74 for Titans in Week 4), have come nowhere close to hitting the season-high mark they posted against the Jets. Bolden is averaging 16.3 receiving yards in all other games this season while McNichols is averaging 15.7.
Who is to say Gaskin can’t be the next ho-hum receiving back to explode on the Jets? He had 74 yards through the air against Tampa Bay in Week 5, so he has proven he is capable of such a game. At +800, it could be a shot worth taking.
Alternate Myles Gaskin lines:
- 25+ receiving yards (+122)
- 40+ receiving yards (+310)
- 50+ receiving yards (+520)
- 60+ receiving yards (+800)
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