Treylon Burks, Arkansas, NFL Mock Draft, NY Jets
Treylon Burks, Arkansas Football, New York Jets, NFL Draft, Getty Images

Joe Douglas’ New York Jets draft picks tend to meet one of two criteria, and these 2022 prospects fail to meet either of them

We’ve spent the past week identifying some trends that could help us identify the 2022 NFL draft prospects who have the highest likelihood of being drafted by Joe Douglas and the New York Jets.

Today, we’ll turn the tables and try to identify some prospects who might have a very low chance of being drafted by New York.

I wanted to see if I could find any must-have traits amongst the players drafted by Douglas and the Jets between the 2020 and 2021 drafts. Is there anything that a prospect needs in order to become a Jet?

As I dug through the profiles of Douglas’ 19 draft picks, I noticed that 17 of them met at least one of these two criteria:

  • Had a Relative Athletic Score (RAS)* above 7.55, which was the 2020-21 NFL average among drafted players
  • Was a team captain in college

*RAS is a 0-to-10 rating that takes into account a player’s performance in various testing drills relative to their height, weight, and position. When multiplied by 10, the player’s RAS indicates where their athleticism ranks all-time among players at his position; i.e., a 9.0 RAS ranks at the 90th percentile.

Almost every single one of Douglas’ draft picks was either an above-average athlete, a team captain, or both. Only two of his 19 picks failed to meet either of the two conditions listed above.

Those two exceptions were California safety Ashtyn Davis and Auburn linebacker Jamien Sherwood.

Davis wasn’t a team captain, but he likely would have made the RAS cut if he completed enough testing to earn a score. However, because he did not participate in drills that offseason, a RAS could not be calculated for him.

New York drafted Davis as a project-type player who offered high upside thanks to his supreme athleticism. A track star for the Golden Bears, Davis’ speed was his most commonly praised attribute on film. So, we can comfortably say he meets Douglas’ athleticism criterion despite not having official confirmation.

That makes Sherwood the only true exception to this rule. Sherwood performed poorly in pre-draft athletic testing with a RAS of 4.24 and was not a team captain for the Tigers.

Seen below is a list of each Jets draft pick in the Douglas era. You can see that they all checked at least one of the two aforementioned boxes except for Davis and Sherwood.

PlayerYearRoundPickPos.SchoolRASCaptain?
Zach Wilson202112QBBYUN/AYes
Alijah Vera-Tucker2021114GUSC9.80Yes
Elijah Moore2021234WRMississippi8.68No
Michael Carter20214107RBNorth Carolina6.23Yes
Jamien Sherwood20215146LBAuburn4.24No
Michael Carter II20215154CBDuke5.73Yes
Jason Pinnock20215175CBPittsburgh9.78No
Hamsah Nasirildeen20216186LBFlorida State7.78No
Brandin Echols20216200CBKentucky9.15No
Jonathan Marshall20216207DTArkansas9.99Yes
Mekhi Becton2020111OTLouisville9.85No
Denzel Mims2020259WRBaylor9.77No
Ashtyn Davis2020368SCaliforniaN/ANo
Jabari Zuniga2020379EDGEFlorida9.74No
La'Mical Perine20204120RBFlorida5.31Yes
James Morgan20204125QBFlorida International3.88Yes
Cameron Clark20204129GCharlotte4.31Yes
Bryce Hall20205158CBVirginiaN/AYes
Braden Mann20206191PTexas A&M7.19Yes

Douglas has actually drafted only two players who checked both boxes: Alijah Vera-Tucker and Jonathan Marshall. What we’ve tended to see is that he doesn’t necessarily care whether a player is a team captain if he has excellent athleticism, but if he is going to draft a lesser athlete, he strongly prefers for that player to be a team captain.

Of Douglas’ seven draft picks with a sub-7.55 RAS, six of them were team captains.

Anyway, the bottom line is this: 89% of Douglas’ picks thus far had a RAS above 7.55 or was a team captain (95% if you throw in Davis), so if you’re a 2022 draft prospect who fails to check one of those two boxes, you probably don’t need to start browsing the real estate market in Morris County.

I scanned through the top 200 prospects on the consensus big board at NFL Mock Draft Database and identified 48 players who did not meet either of the two criteria we’re looking for (I excluded players who did not complete enough testing to qualify for a RAS).

These prospects seem to have a minimal chance of being drafted by the Jets.

Board RankPlayerPos.SchoolRASCaptain?
22Treylon BurksWRArkansas5.82No
30Jahan DotsonWRPenn State6.35No
38Roger McCrearyCBAuburn5.48No
48DeMarvin LealDTTexas A&M7.44No
59Isaiah SpillerRBTexas A&M5.70No
63Nicholas Petit-FrereOTOhio State6.26No
68Darian KinnardOTKentucky5.31No
69Wan'Dale RobinsonWRKentucky7.36No
70David BellWRPurdue4.04No
77Isaiah LikelyTECoastal Carolina4.88No
88Brian Robinson Jr.RBAlabama6.61No
97Ed IngramIOLLSU7.41No
102Derion KendrickLBGeorgia1.55No
103Dameon PierceRBFlorida7.13No
109Jalyn Armour-DavisCBAlabama7.18No
112Max MitchellOTLouisiana-Lafayette5.54No
113Tyler AllgeierRBBYU7.39No
117Verone McKinleySOregon2.35No
126Velus Jones Jr.CBTenenssee7.17No
129Marquis HayesIOLOklahoma6.40No
130Danny GrayWRSMU6.80No
132Jerome FordRBCincinnati6.94No
135Jalen WydermyerTETexas A&M1.00No
140Neil Farrell Jr.DTLSU0.85No
141Matthew ButlerDTTennessee7.32No
145Jake FergusonTEWisconsin6.74No
148Tyreke SmithEDGEOhio State7.15No
149John RidgewayDTArkansas4.72No
152Tyler BadieRBMissouri6.41No
154Mykael WrightCBOregon2.97No
159Dohnovan WestIOLArizona State7.01No
162Jesse LuketaLBPenn State5.65No
167Lecitus SmithIOLVirginia Tech6.52No
168Justin ShafferIOLGeorgia7.53No
169Otito OgbonniaDTUCLA4.80No
171Cole TurnerTENevada7.37No
176Kalon BarnesCBBaylor6.39No
178Chigoziem OkonkwoTEMaryland6.46No
179Zakoby McClainLBAuburn4.38No
180Leon O'Neal Jr.STexas A&M6.07No
185Andrew StueberOTMichigan5.09No
186Cordale FlottCBLSU7.46No
189Spencer BufordOTUTSA0.00No
190Abram SmithRBBaylor6.61No
195Chris HintonDTMichigan5.55No
196Chasen HinesIOLLSU6.61No
198Ty ChandlerRBNorth Carolina6.38No
199Sincere McCormickRBUTSA3.96No

New York Jets, Mock Draft Simulator, Offseason Tool, Jets X-Factor, Deebo Samuel

Interestingly, the highest-ranked player on the list is Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks at No. 22 overall. None of the Jets’ realistic options in the top-10 are eliminated by these criteria. But once we get into round two, we can start using the list to cross off some possibilities when the Jets come onto the clock.

Burks joins Penn State wide receiver Jahan Dotson and Auburn cornerback Roger McCreary as some of the most highly-regarded prospects who might not rank as high on the Jets’ draft board as they do for other teams.

Will Joe Douglas stick to the criteria he established over his first two drafts or will he open his mind to more non-elite-athlete/non-captain prospects in this year’s draft?

Just ten more days of speculation remain until the 2022 NFL draft finally kicks off in Las Vegas.

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Michael Nania is one of the best analytical New York Jets minds in the world, combining his statistical expertise with game film to add proper context to the data. Nania scrapes every corner, ensuring you know all there is to know about everyone from the QB to the long snapper. Nania's Numbers, Nania's QB Grades, and Nania's All-22 give fans a deeper and more well-rounded dive into the Jets than anyone else can offer. Email: michael.nania[at]jetsxfactor.com - Twitter: @Michael_Nania
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Barney Miller
Barney Miller
5 months ago

Funny. In your other article you have Zach’s old teammate RB Tyler Allgeier listed as a possible 4th or 5th round pick. Yet he’s neither a captain nor a 7.55 (7.39, pretty close?). Maybe his relationship with Zach puts him on the plus side of the equation?

Jonathan Richter
Jonathan Richter
5 months ago

Only 2 guys on this list have been on my wish list. RB Jerome Ford and TE Chig Okonkwo.

But I still really want a guy named Chig.

Kltroller@aol.com
Kltroller@aol.com
5 months ago

Are we going to see an “APPROVED” list next? The narrowed down cheat sheet.

Jimjets
Jimjets
5 months ago

Fascinating. As we get closer and closer I’ve got some wants. I want Jermaine Johnson and Drake London in the first round. If we can move back at either spot and still get both brilliant. But if not just stay put and take those 2 players. I think we need to trade back once or twice because I think we need to double down at WR and OL. And our other needs are obvious. If we add 3-4 extra picks we can fill needs and maybe even grab a top runner and TE – Dulcich?

Jimjets
Jimjets
5 months ago
Reply to  Michael Nania

Me too. Dulcich prolly gone by the time we’re TE hunting. He’s just so explosive. Maybe not a big time blocker but what a weapon.

Jets71
Jets71
5 months ago
Reply to  Jimjets

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trade out of this draft into another draft. This is a weak draft by all accounts, there is really no “franchise changing” player in this draft. There are some good prospects but I don’t see any of them as Bruce Smith, Lawrence Taylor, Pat Mahomes, or any of those types. I think taking fewer players in this draft is the goal, by either trading up for players who they really want, or out to another draft. I’m fine with the two guys you want, not sold on Johnson I prefer Karlaftis but do we really know which player is the better option?

Jimjets
Jimjets
5 months ago
Reply to  Jets71

Meh. Every draft is a crapshoot and no one – not kiper not mcshay none of them know anything for certain. All these experts have been saying the depth in this draft is Unmatched with great players well into the 4th and even 5th rounds. In addition JD has been setting everything up for this year. No. Not trading for more hope next year. Absolutely not.

Peter Buell
Peter Buell
5 months ago
Reply to  Jimjets

I agree. If we’re trading #s 4 or 10, I want the picks or player this year.
Next offseason the Jets will be in a good cap space. Mosely is most likely gone and depending on the season and who we fraft or can sign, Lawson could be gone too.
Both would have very little dead money and open close to $30m for younger guys.

Peter Buell
Peter Buell
5 months ago
Reply to  Jimjets

If Philly has a player of thier dreams at #4, I might think of trading 4 for #15 and 18 since the deaft is so deep.
I beleive we still get what we need most at 10, 15, 18
in edge, Wr and cb/s.
Don’t know weather Philly would prefer the 4 or 10 and 69.
It would be putting alot of trust in JD but after last year he has earned that trust imo.

Jimjets
Jimjets
5 months ago
Reply to  Peter Buell

Sign me up for that trade Peter. Yes. 3 number ones ? Done.