Sauce Gardner has a great chance of becoming a star at some point in the future. But will he be dominant in his very first season?
Chosen fourth overall in the 2022 NFL draft, New York Jets rookie Sauce Gardner is widely expected to become a high-level NFL cornerback someday. However, cornerback is one of the toughest positions in the NFL for a rookie. We typically see young corners take a few years before they become the player they will be throughout their prime.
Take Darrelle Revis, for example. The legendary Jets cornerback gave up 748 yards in his 2007 rookie season, which ranked as the 13th-most in the NFL and turned out to be the worst mark of his career. His 87.5 passer rating allowed would turn out to be his second-worst mark, beating only his 2016 season with the Jets.
So, it’s fair to expect that Gardner will go through some rookie lumps before reaching the beginning of his prime in either 2023 or 2024.
But Gardner drastically raised expectations for his rookie year with an outstanding preseason run. In three games, Gardner dropped into coverage on 24 snaps and was not targeted a single time – the most coverage snaps without a target of any cornerback in the NFL this preseason. His consistent proficiency in both man and zone coverage was extremely admirable.
Was Gardner’s standout preseason a sign that he is ready to become a star from the get-go? Or should Jets fans still be prepared for Gardner to endure some year-one growing pains?
Let’s take a look back at the recent history of rookie cornerbacks to set some fair expectations for Gardner’s rookie year.
2021 rookie cornerback production
Collectively, rookie cornerbacks were burnt toast in 2021.
Rookie corners allowed 836 completions on 1,183 targets (70.7%) for 9,994 yards (8.4 yards per target), 62 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions (3.1-to-1 ratio). That’s a passer rating of 106.6, well above the NFL average of 90.8 on all pass attempts.
However, the numbers are far more respectable if you only look at the corners who were drafted in the first round:
- Eric Stokes (Packers, 29th pick, 645 coverage snaps)
- Patrick Surtain (Broncos, 9th pick, 533 coverage snaps)
- Greg Newsome (Browns, 26th pick, 410 coverage snaps)
- Jaycee Horn (Panthers, 8th pick, 95 coverage snaps)
- Caleb Farley (Titans, 22nd pick, 37 coverage snaps)
The five first-round corners combined to allow 143 completions on 253 targets (56.5%) for 1,739 yards (6.9 yards per target), 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions (1.7-to-1 ratio). That’s an 81.1 passer rating.
Those are solid numbers. If one player accumulated those numbers in a season, he’d probably be considered somewhere around a top 20-to-25 corner (low-end CB1).
For Gardner, that would be an excellent jumping-off point for his career. He’d provide a strong immediate impact in 2022 while setting himself a high floor going forward. Having a rookie season of that caliber would give him a very realistic chance of springing into the elite tier with a year-two leap.
Surtain was the best player of this bunch, showing that it is certainly possible for a rookie corner to accumulate top-flight production. He allowed 49-of-85 passing for 560 yards (6.6 yards per target), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. His allowed passer rating of 69.7 ranked 8th-best in the NFL out of 82 qualified corners.
Here’s what should excite Jets fans regarding Surtain: Like Gardner, Surtain had an outstanding preseason. Surtain allowed 1-of-4 passing for 12 yards on 34 coverage snaps across three preseason games. It turned out to be a sign of things to come for Surtain. Will the same be true for Gardner?
Stokes and Newsome enjoyed solid rookie seasons, but from a production standpoint, they were not as impressive as Surtain. And sure enough, their preseason performances were not as impressive, as they combined to allow 5-of-7 passing for 91 yards. Farley struggled in his extremely limited regular-season playing time and also had a shaky preseason beforehand.
It’s worth noting that this group’s numbers would likely be even better if Horn stayed healthy for the entire season. Horn allowed only one catch over his first three games before missing the rest of the year. Just like Surtain, Horn’s rookie success was foreshadowed by an impressive preseason run. Horn allowed 0-of-5 passing in his direction over two preseason games.
If you’re willing to consider Horn a rookie stud based on his small sample size, then he joins Surtain as 2-of-5 first-round corners who were fantastic right off the bat. Horn and Surtain had dominant preseasons while the other three corners did not. This is stellar news for Gardner.
2020 rookie cornerback production
The 2021 season was a good one for first-round corners. But if we go back one more year to 2020, the picture is not nearly as promising.
There were six corners drafted in the first round of the 2020 draft:
- A.J. Terrell (Falcons, 16th pick, 607 coverage snaps)
- Jeff Gladney (Vikings, 31st pick, 543 coverage snaps)
- C.J. Henderson (Jaguars, 9th pick, 270 coverage snaps)
- Jeff Okudah (Lions, 3rd pick, 266 coverage snaps)
- Damon Arnette (Raiders, 19th pick, 216 coverage snaps)
- Noah Igbinoghene (Dolphins, 30th pick, 188 coverage snaps)
These six corners combined to allow 250 receptions on 353 targets (70.8%) for 3,457 yards (9.8 yards per target), 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions (7.0-to-1 ratio). That’s a 118.2 passer rating.
Okudah is the scariest warning sign from this class as it pertains to Gardner. Like Gardner, Okudah was a top-five pick, being selected third overall. He was arguably an even more highly-regarded prospect than Gardner. Yet, despite all of the hype, Okudah had a woeful rookie year in which he allowed 38-of-50 passing for 578 yards (11.6 yards per target).
Terrell broke out in his second season and became one of the best corners in the NFL, but he’s the only member of this group who took a major leap in Year 2.
The biggest issue in regards to the 2020 class’s predictive value for Gardner is the fact that we do not have preseason production to look at (due to the lack of a preseason that year because of COVID-19). Regardless, this group’s ghastly production is a clear warning that rookie years can be tumultuous for corners no matter how talented they may seem.
2018 rookie cornerback production
I skipped the 2019 class since it only had one cornerback drafted in the first round, which wasn’t even until the 30th pick (Deandre Baker).
The 2018 draft featured three cornerbacks in the first round:
- Denzel Ward (Browns, 4th pick, 540 coverage snaps)
- Jaire Alexander (Packers, 18th pick, 461 coverage snaps)
- Mike Hughes (Vikings, 30th pick, 159 coverage snaps)
Hughes had a tough rookie year (112.4 passer rating), but Ward and Alexander were instant-impact studs, setting the stone for them to become stars in the future.
Ward and Alexander combined to allow 95 completions on 161 targets (59.0%) for 1,113 yards (6.9 yards per target), 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, culminating in a passer rating of 77.5. Ward ranked 6th-best out of 78 qualified corners with an 83.6 coverage grade at Pro Football Focus while Alexander ranked 22nd with a 73.0 grade. They only committed a combined total of five penalties.
Once again, we see a correlation regarding preseason performance. Ward allowed only 36 yards on 6 targets over three preseason games, earning a solid PFF coverage grade of 69.8. Alexander earned a 90.8 coverage grade at PFF over three preseason games.
So, how good will Sauce Gardner be in 2022?
Looking at the performances of first-round rookie corners in recent years, it seems clear that there is a wide range of possibilities. These guys have been anywhere from atrocious to great.
What’s promising for Gardner is that we saw a correlation between preseason and regular season production among the corners in the sample we studied today. Players like Surtain, Horn, Ward, and Alexander flashed their star-level talent in the preseason and then became immediate plus-starters in the NFL.
Thanks to his exquisite preseason, the odds of Gardner producing at a “good starter” level this year are looking strong. By that, I’m talking somewhere around the top 15-to-20 range. He should be able to land in that tier at the very least.
It seems unlikely that Gardner will be a superstar this year – it’s just so rare for rookie corners to play at that level, or rookies at any position for that matter – but I expect him to be a productive starter who sets himself up for a leap to stardom in Year 2.
Excellent analysis as usual, Michael. Question: it’s obvious that the lack of throws in Sauce’s direction demonstrates his great coverage skills. But that result would not show up in your numbers. Is there a way to judge a corner based on the lack of throws in his direction?
Well, I would say you can judge a corner based on the lack of throws in his direction by accounting for how many snaps he played in coverage. For example, Sauce played 24 coverage snaps this preseason and saw 0 targets. That was the most coverage snaps without a target by any CB in the NFL this preseason.
Generally when a defender is seeing a low number of targets relative to their number of snaps in coverage, it’s a pretty good sign that they’re earning it based on the quality of their coverage. But that’s not always the case. There can be some luck involved. That’s why going back and watching the film is key for any stat; to see if it’s being earned or if it’s a product of luck/outside factors.
In Sauce’s case, his lack of targets in the preseason was completely earned. When watching him on a rep to rep basis, you can see that he was executing his assignments and locking his man down on just about every play. The film proves that his 0 targets on 24 coverage snaps is legitimate.
So, I would say that’s the main way to give CBs credit for the lack of throws in their direction: simply look at their targets compared to their playing time and see if their target number is low relative to expectation, then verify that the film shows the stat is legitimate.
From a team perspective, a CB doing what Sauce has been doing should have a positive effect on the entire pass defense. Look no further than the MC2 pick vs. the Giants. With Sauce locking up one side, QBs will force throws to the other side of the field, giving those guys chances to make plays.
Nice explanation of why the lack of targets are indicative of the C-Bet skill and value. But can low targets be built into the analytics so comparisons like the ones you use in the article can take that into account? For (extreme) example, what if Sauce gave up a pedestrian QB rating of 85, but had 1/3 the average targets per passing down? That would be fantastic, but wouldn’t show in the stats.
In other words, Sauce’s great preseason performance is invisible to the analytics.
That’s a great point. I think what comes into play here is the fact that there will never be a single catch-all statistic to evaluate any position, and you have to bring different metrics into play to get the full picture.
This is especially true at CB. Just like you said, if Sauce gives up an 85 passer rating or something like that because he’s allowed decent production in the rare instances he gets targeted, but he almost never gets targeted, we have to take both stats into play to truly evaluate him.
Say that Sauce allows 15 YPG on an 85 passer rating and Player B allows 50 YPG on an 80 passer rating. Obviously, we’re taking Sauce. Player B might be *slightly* more efficient at preventing production when targeted, but Sauce was substantially better at preventing targets in the first place, meaning he allowed far less production overall.
Bryce Hall is a decent example of this last year. Hall’s yardage numbers in coverage were actually pretty good. In stats like yards per cover snap and yards per target, he was around the 50th-60th percentile among starters. But the problem is that he allowed 6 TD, had 0 INTs or FFs, and gave up quite a first downs, so the yardage paints a slightly misleading picture regarding the amount of value that he yielded on throws in his direction.
Hello Michael! You never know with a CB but Sauce has impressed with his talent and maturity, thats a good sign. An even better sign is they arent throwing at him. Thats the true measure of a CB.
Absolutely, he’s shown a lot so far. We’ll see what happens but to this point he’s passed every test.
Hes got the look to him and I think, as someone else already mentioned, the pass rush is going to be better. If you can rush the passer it makes playing CB a lot less hard.
This guy will play well immediately, he will be tested early, and often, the coaches are ready for that and will help him when they can. The pass rush is critical, the less time the quarterback has, the less time the corner is left on an island. Can’t wait! Just extend This season!
You make a good point about the pass rush, that is going to make a big difference for the entire secondary.
I remember talk of Okudah being “the best player in the draft” ouch. Teams will pick on Gardner, try to scheme up ways to attack him, but what I like for him is, he’s part of a solid group. DJ Reed is not slouch and Whitehead looks the part with a SB ring. I think that will take some of the heat off Gardner and allow him to be good. There will be hiccups but so far he’s shown signs of having an “impactful” rookie season.
I’d love to develop him to the point they can mix in a bit more man coverage. Personally, I think they will. I’m not taking anything from last season as a defensive “trend” for them. My belief is they want to mix it up a bit from when Saleh was in SF, to adapt to the offenses. I can see a bunch of second down blitzing if a team is behind in down and distance to try and create 3rd and “longer” where they can safely play their zone. Stuff like that and Gardner should provide them that flexibility The question is when?