The Falcons’ defense has a flaw the New York Jets can exploit
By now, the New York Jets’ offense has become a meme representing an utter failure. Starring Tim Boyle, Dalvin Cook, Randall Cobb, Max Mitchell, and Xavier Newman, they have scored only 10 offensive touchdowns the entire season. Their third-down and red-zone offense are historically inept. They have the second-highest offensive sack rate in the NFL at 11.2% of dropbacks.
Trying to win with that level of putrid play is difficult. Still, the Jets have six games remaining in the season, and they’d prefer not to outdo last year’s season-ending six-game losing streak. This week’s home game against the Atlanta Falcons is one of the most winnable remaining contests on their schedule.
No team is a good matchup for the Jets’ offense, and the Falcons’ defense is pretty strong. They rank sixth in defensive success rate and 12th in EPA per play allowed. The Jets have struggled against far worse defenses than that.
Still, one weakness of Atlanta’s defense could be the key to scoring some points. There’s no guarantee the Jets will be able to execute, but it should be the crux of their game plan.
The Falcons struggle against deep passes
Atlanta has been in the bottom tier of the league in defending against passes 20+ yards downfield. On those attempts, opposing passers have gone 18-for-44 (40.9% completion percentage and success rate, T-26th) for 620 yards (T-23rd) with six touchdowns (T-28th), one interception (T-23rd), 14.1 yards per attempt (25th), and 0.732 EPA per attempt (28th). Overall, they’ve taken seven accepted defensive pass interference penalties with 23.7 yards per penalty (28th).
But the Jets struggle to throw them
The problem for the Jets is that, just like almost everything else, deep passing has been a weakness of theirs this season. They’re 11-for-36 (30.6%, 20th) for 330 yards (30th) with no touchdowns (T-last), three interceptions (T-16th), 9.17 yards per attempt (T-27th), and -0.199 EPA per attempt (30th). They’ve received eight defensive pass interference calls overall (T-5th) but for just 12.1 yards per penalty (23rd), indicating most of those calls likely did not come deep downfield.
The other issue for the Jets is that they simply have no receivers besides Garrett Wilson. Allen Lazard suffered a benching after a miserable performance; Cobb is statistically the least efficient receiver in the NFL; Xavier Gipson and Jason Brownlee became undrafted free agents for a reason, and their long-term ceilings in the NFL are both as fourth or fifth receivers at best; Malik Taylor has been nothing more than a special teamer in his career and has maxed out his practice squad elevations.
Target weakest link
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the primary culprit in Atlanta’s deep struggles has been safety Richie Grant. Grant is the Falcons’ strong safety, playing in the box 32% of the time compared to 46% at deep safety.
Here are Grant’s statistics against 20+ yard routes compared to 74 qualified defenders (min. 30 snaps):
- 6 completions (2nd-most)
- 211 yards (4th-most)
- 66.7% completion percentage (4th-most)
- 3 touchdowns (2nd-most)
- 149.3 passer rating (2nd-highest)
- 18.8% completion percentage over expected (11th-highest)
- 15.9 target EPA (3rd-most)
- 23.4 yards per target (7th-most)
- 6.4 yards per cover snap (second-most)
In other words, when Grant has been beaten deep, he’s been beaten badly. Overall, he is not good in coverage, allowing five touchdowns, 395 passing yards (second-most among safeties), and a 136.3 passer rating. The Jets need to find a way to exploit this.
The real damage has been done against Grant in zone coverage (316 out of 395 yards). That means the Jets should be looking to overload his zone in two-high looks, which is likely when most of his deep yardage has been allowed. He should be the defender they seek to place into conflict. Jeff Okudah is another option, but he has not been quite as poor in the deep part of the field; that distinction belongs to Grant.
How?
Nathaniel Hackett needs to mix it up more with deep concepts. Of course, the offensive line’s inability to block makes it difficult to hit a deep shot. However, with the Jets’ season on the brink, the risk may be worth the reward.
Many Jets fans are looking across town at how Tommy DeVito has performed over the last couple of games for the Giants. It’s a pretty good blueprint for how to try to win with a decimated offense. The Giants do have a deeper receiving corps, even if it lacks anyone with the high-end talent of Wilson. Still, their offensive line is the only one that has given up a higher sack rate than the Jets, and it’s 5% more than the Jets’ at an astounding 16.5%.
DeVito has been sacked 15 times on 69 dropbacks (21.7%) over the past two weeks alone, a higher rate than Boyle (eight sacks on 60 dropbacks, 13.3%). He’s also thrown for 437 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions in that time. He has attempted eight passes of 20+ yards, completing five for 155 yards and two touchdowns.
Boyle may struggle with those throws, but the Jets’ offense is so anemic that it’s worth a try. If the undrafted rookie DeVito, whose head coach did not trust him to throw the ball at all upon his entry into the game against the Jets, can make these throws, Boyle should be able to do so. At worst, maybe he can draw a pass interference call on occasion.
Which receivers?
If Wilson ever gets a one-on-one matchup, the call should be an automatic deep shot. That’s likely what Aaron Rodgers would do if he was under center.
If Wilson is doubled, that means the other receivers will have one-on-ones. Lazard will be active this week, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be useful. He used to do a decent job on deep contested catches; that has not been the case this season.
Considering that Cobb has no speed left and Taylor can’t be elevated from the practice squad again without being released first, that leaves Gipson and Brownlee.
Gipson has 4.42 speed but is 5-foot-9 with small hands and short arms. He caught 10 of 18 deep targets, including four touchdowns, in his last year of college, but he went to an FCS school (Stephen F. Austin). Brownlee is 6-foot-2, but his 4.59 speed is unimpressive. Still, he caught 10 of 25 (40%) deep balls for 246 yards and four touchdowns in his last year in college. That included 6 of 9 contested targets.
Why not try to run these players deep and see what they can do? Brownlee had an impressive one-handed deep catch in training camp. Gipson’s speed alone makes it worth a shot despite his seeming lack of suitability. If the Jets so desire, they can also sign Taylor to the active roster, as he had an impressive deep reception in the preseason and also won a deep route against the Giants to draw a pass interference call.
Undrafted rookie Jason Brownlee makes the catch of the summer?!
(via @nyjets) @Slideweezy pic.twitter.com/fSVCJJRSfP
— NFL (@NFL) August 1, 2023
Zach Wilson throws a pretty deep ball to Malik Taylor for a long 57-yard gain.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 4, 2023
Ugly Pass Interference by #Giants Adoree Jackson in overtime pic.twitter.com/mKkoDvQDJ2https://t.co/o4zoIRbdna
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 29, 2023
Let Hall cook
The Jets haven’t used Breece Hall in the vertical passing game this season. On one play where they did, he got a matchup with an Eagles linebacker and cooked him off the line. With the Jets’ receiver struggles, they should try to use Hall as a vertical threat.
Jets need to flex out Breece Hall more often, he's a mismatch for LBs. Here they put him outside and he draws a 1-on-1 against Zach Cunningham. Hall cooks him vertically and is open for a TD (Won't kill Zach as he started his read on the other side then got pressured) pic.twitter.com/e03vxS6zSr
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) October 16, 2023
In fact, two of DeVito’s deep passes were completed to Saquon Barkley. Barkley had also been mostly a screen/checkdown threat over the past year and a half before the Giants sent him downfield in Week 11. The result was two 20+ yard completions, including a touchdown.
The Jets should take a page out of that book. Hall has had drop issues this season (9.5%), but so have the team’s other receivers. Right now, his average depth of target is -0.5 yards, and his deepest target this season is four yards downfield.
The Jets are wasting Hall’s athleticism. They need to open it up and let him take advantage of linebackers.
Take shots
Hackett is currently taking a beating in the media and among fans for his comments about the Jets’ offense.
Nathaniel Hackett said that even he's pressing. Asked what that means: "Sometimes it's experimenting with too many new things or trying to take too many shots. Sometimes, you just have to let them go out and play."
I must've missed the part of the game where they were taking…
— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) November 30, 2023
This is a valid criticism. The Jets have attempted just 33 deep passes this season, tied for 26th in the NFL. Since Week 5, after the lone game in which Hackett opened up the offense vs. Kansas City, there have been just 18 deep shots, ranked 31st. It’s hard to know what the offensive coordinator was talking about, but it doesn’t bode well for the possibility of taking deep shots against Atlanta.
If the Jets don’t push the envelope, though, it will be another dreary, unwatchable game at MetLife Stadium for the Green and White.
