NY Jets: It’s time for the Sauce Gardner haters to face the facts

The numbers tell the truth about New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner

Across the NFL, Sauce Gardner might be the most heavily scrutinized player on the New York Jets. Each week, social media warriors are chomping at the bit for Gardner to lose one single rep so they can clip it and share it with a goofy caption to bait people into engaging with the post.

After all, success breeds envy. So when you kick off your NFL career with a rookie season that features an All-Pro nod, Pro Bowl appearance, and Defensive Rookie of the Year award, plenty of people will be eager to drag you down.

Toss in Gardner’s swagger, unique nickname, and the fact that he plays under the bright lights of New York, and you have a player who is tailor-made to be targeted by online critics.

Going into the 2023 season, the haters were ready for Gardner to have a sophomore slump. The Jets’ opening-week game against the Bills gave them some ammunition to work with, as Gardner was targeted five times and allowed four receptions for 59 yards. At the time, it tied Gardner’s career-high for yards allowed in a game.

Then, in Week 2, Gardner was the nearest defender on a touchdown reception by Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson. He also dropped a potential interception off of Dak Prescott. The ammunition was quickly mounting for the critics.

It certainly wasn’t an ideal start for Gardner through two games. Talk of Gardner’s sophomore slump began to heat up.

Some of the critics took Gardner’s shaky two-game start and etched it in stone as the story of his 2023 season. If you’re one of those people, then you clearly have not watched any of the past nine games. For the vast majority of this season, Gardner has essentially been the same exact player he was in his breakout rookie year.

Over his last nine games, Gardner has been practically unbeatable, allowing zero touchdowns and only 14.7 yards per game into his coverage. The latter mark ranks second-best among 77 qualified cornerbacks (min. 400 defensive snaps over the span), trailing only Jaylon Johnson of the Bears. Johnson has allowed one touchdown, making Gardner the only cornerback in the NFL since Week 3 who has allowed under 20 yards per game and zero touchdowns.

With his red-hot play over the last nine games, Gardner’s full-season body of work in 2023 now looks nearly identical to his level of play in 2022, even if you include the first two games. Take a look:

• 2023 (11 games): 225 yards allowed on 409 coverage snaps (0.55 yards per cover snap)
• 2022 (17 games): 361 yards allowed on 642 coverage snaps (0.56 yards per cover snap)

In terms of yards per coverage snap, Gardner has played at essentially the same level in 2023 as he did in 2022. Any talk of him being in a sophomore slump needs to cease.

Gardner’s 0.56 yards per cover snap in 2022 led all qualified cornerbacks. In 2023, despite improving slightly to 0.55, he ranks third-best. One spot ahead of him, though, is teammate Michael Carter II (0.54). Jaylon Johnson leads at 0.42.

Not only is Gardner the lone cornerback to rank top three in both seasons, but he is the only player from 2022’s top five who is reprising his position as well. If you extend it to the top 10, the only player from last year who remains in that group is another Jets teammate, D.J. Reed, who was seventh at 0.71 in 2022 and is sixth with 0.70 in 2023.

With back-to-back seasons ranking in the top three of fewest yards allowed per cover snap, Gardner remains arguably the best shutdown cornerback in the NFL. Other cornerbacks might rack up more highlight-reel plays than Gardner, but it can be argued that nobody is more consistent at winning their matchups on a play-to-play basis.

In fact, Gardner’s incredible consistency in coverage is the main reason why he doesn’t generate more highlights. Teams barely throw at him.

The biggest difference between Gardner’s 2022 season and 2023 season is his decline in plays on the football. Gardner led the NFL with 20 passes defended as a rookie but has seven through 11 games in 2023 (on pace for 10 in 16 games). The dip is mainly because he’s only been targeted 38 times this year, which ranks 69th among all cornerbacks. On a per-snap basis, Gardner has been targeted on just 9.3% of his coverage snaps, the second-lowest rate among 85 qualified cornerbacks (min. 250 coverage snaps).

Last season, Gardner was targeted 73 times, which ranked 31st among cornerbacks, and his target per coverage snap rate was 11.4%, ranking seventh-lowest. Gardner is on pace to finish with 55 targets in 16 games this season, which would be 18 fewer than last season.

Not only does Gardner hardly ever get targeted, but when he does, it’s usually a short pass that he cannot make a play on. In 2023, Gardner has been the nearest defender on only 11 passes that were thrown at least 10 yards downfield, ranking 80th among cornerbacks. Last season, Gardner saw 43 targets at least 10 yards downfield, tying him for second-most at the position. Here in 2023, Gardner is on pace for 16 of those targets through 16 games – less than 40% of last year’s total.

So, it’s no wonder his pass deflections are down. He gets almost no opportunities to make them since he is consistently blanketing his man, which causes the quarterback to quickly move to his next read and not even consider challenging Gardner. This style of play may not lead to sexy box-score stats and flashy highlights, but it is still extremely beneficial for the Jets’ defense.

When Gardner wins a coverage rep on a route that is the primary read in the concept, the quarterback has to waste a bunch of valuable split-seconds to read Gardner’s man and then make the decision to move off of him. So, even if Gardner does not get targeted, his coverage forces quarterbacks to move on to the next read, causing them to hold the ball longer. This buys time for the Jets’ deadly pass rush to get home. Many of the Jets’ sacks have been assisted by Gardner’s coverage.

Sauce coverage vs. Adams to help create the sack pic.twitter.com/ZkLbwKT7Ww

— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) November 17, 2023

Oftentimes, quarterbacks won’t even look at Gardner’s side of the field. This has a tremendous impact when Gardner is lined up against a star receiver, as his mere presence forces the opponent to ignore its best player and rely on its less talented weapons instead.

Considering the Jets’ other cornerbacks are also stellar, this part of Gardner’s game has led to massive success for New York. It’s not as if you can avoid Gardner and enjoy success by exploiting a weak cornerback on the other side of the field with your No. 2 receiver. If you ignore Gardner, you now have to deal with D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II, who have the talent of No. 1 cornerbacks. So, in essence, the fear of Gardner is forcing teams into attacking No. 1 corners with No. 2 and No. 3 receivers. Advantage Jets.

While Gardner affects games in a much more subtle fashion than the interception-hunting cornerbacks of the league, Gardner’s style arguably makes a far greater positive impact than the “ballhawk” style of cornerback play. Big-play-seekers often balance out their highlights by giving big plays back. Conversely, you hardly ever notice Gardner on gameday, which is one of the greatest compliments you can give a cornerback.

All Gardner can control is whether he wins his matchup and prevents his man from making a play. And in that regard, he continues to be arguably the best cornerback in the NFL. Pipe down, Sauce haters (cough, Seahawks fans, cough).