Should the NY Jets re-sign Mekhi Becton in 2024?

The New York Jets have an interesting conversation on their hands with Mekhi Becton

Undoubtedly, the New York Jets’ top priority in the 2024 offseason will be the offensive line. As the Jets aim to make a deep playoff run behind 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers, they will want to ensure their aging veteran quarterback is as well-protected as possible. If the unit replicates its ghastly performance in 2023, Rodgers is in for another short-lived season.

Mekhi Becton will be one of the most important cogs in the Jets’ 2024 offensive line rebuild. The Jets’ 2020 first-round pick is headed for unrestricted free agency following his fourth season in New York, as the Jets declined his fifth-year option. General manager Joe Douglas must decide whether Becton should be a part of the team’s future – and how much money the team is willing to pay him to make that happen.

After missing the Jets’ previous 33 games entering the 2023 season opener, Becton has finally stayed healthy and put an extensive number of reps on film for the Jets to evaluate. Becton has been the Jets’ second-most reliable offensive lineman in 2023 from a durability standpoint, starting 12 of the team’s 13 games. He started at right tackle in the first two games and has been at left tackle over his last 10 starts.

Should the Jets re-sign Becton in 2024? Perhaps even use the franchise tag?

To answer those questions, we have to evaluate how well Becton has performed in 2023. That’s what we are here to do today.

Using film and numbers, let’s dive into Becton’s production throughout his first 12 games of the 2023 season.

Pass-blocking

According to Pro Football Focus, Becton has allowed 37 total pressures on 469 pass-blocking snaps. This gives him an allowed pressure rate of 7.89%, which ranks 57th out of 70 qualified tackles (min. 250 pass-blocking snaps). So, he is allowing pressure more frequently than most tackles. The league average for tackles this season is 6.48%.

Becton’s losses in pass protection tend to be harmful. Of his 37 pressures allowed, nine of them were sacks, which ranks as the second-most sacks allowed among tackles.

NFL Next Gen Stats also tracks pass-blocking stats. Their conclusions are different than PFF’s, as PFF’s data is tracked by humans whereas NGS relies on player tracking data, so it’s worth looking at Becton’s production in their system as well.

The result is similar. At NGS, Becton ranks 50th out of 70 qualified tackles with an allowed pressure rate of 11.71%. In the NGS system, the league average for tackles is 10.49%.

As for sacks, NGS has Becton on the hook for eight of them, ranking as the ninth-most among tackles.

Overall, it’s clear that Becton’s pass-blocking numbers are well below average. He allows pressure at a high rate and has a strong tendency to take bad losses that turn into sacks.

However, some might argue that Becton is playing in an unfavorable environment that is not conducive to good pass-blocking numbers. With bad receivers who cannot separate, bad offensive linemen around him, and a quarterback in Zach Wilson who tends to take unnecessary sacks, it’s fair to say that Becton’s surroundings are likely harming his statistics.

One stat that aligns with this theory is Becton’s average dropback time. On average, Becton’s pass-blocking snaps have lasted 3.13 seconds, ranking 18th-highest out of 70 qualified tackles. The league average is 2.98 seconds. It seems clear that the Jets’ offensive linemen are being asked to hold up for a relatively long time due to the lack of separation downfield along with Wilson’s tendency to hold the ball.

Considering that Becton’s reps last longer than the average tackle, it certainly means he is forced to deal with more “high-danger” reps than many of his peers (i.e. plays where pressure is likely to occur due to how long the ball is held). Becton probably gets credited with some allowed pressures on plays where the ball would’ve been out already in a league-average offense.

While these excuses sound legitimate in theory, the problem is that Becton’s pass-blocking numbers are still below average even when you isolate his performance in specific situations that put all offensive linemen on an equal plane.

According to PFF, Becton has allowed 29 pressures on 218 pass-blocking snaps in “true pass sets,” which, per PFF, “exclude plays with less than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks and time-to-throws under 2 seconds.” This gives Becton an allowed pressure rate of 13.3% in true pass set situations, ranking 55th out of 71 qualified tackles (min. 100 true pass sets). The league average for tackles is 11.18%.

NGS has a similar metric that tracks how offensive linemen perform in situations where they are one-on-one with a defender (no double teams). Becton has allowed a 12.89% pressure rate in one-on-one situations, ranking 53rd out of 70 qualifiers. The league average for tackles is 10.96%.

Becton’s film seems to back up the idea that he has been below average in pass protection.

While the excuses for Becton’s poor pass-blocking stats sound fair in theory, these excuses are negated when you watch the film and see that nearly all of the sacks allowed by Becton are clean losses. Perhaps the ball could have been thrown away on some of these, but that doesn’t change the fact that Becton is usually getting beaten very cleanly, very quickly.

Becton is coming off a game against the Texans where he allowed three sacks. Once again, you can make all the excuses you want regarding the situation around him, but each of these sacks is a bad rep where Becton is inarguably at fault.

It’s difficult to argue that Becton has not been a subpar pass-blocker this year. The majority of his metrics place him somewhere from the 20th percentile to the 30th percentile among qualified tackles, and the film seems to back that up. There isn’t much on tape that suggests the metrics are telling the wrong story.

Run-blocking

Becton’s struggles extend to the run game, which is problematic considering that phase is supposed to be his strength.

PFF’s run-blocking grade is the only run-blocking metric that is readily available to the public, so we’ll just have to roll with it. As I’ve stated before, PFF’s grading system is prone to some wonky conclusions, so take their grades with a grain of salt. Still, the picture isn’t pretty.

Becton has a run-blocking grade of 51.8 at PFF, ranking 61st out of 73 qualified tackles (min. 400 offensive snaps). You can’t play the “PFF hates the Jets” card this time around, as PFF was high on Becton in his rookie season, aligning with the consensus opinion from Jets fans. In his 2020 rookie season, Becton ranked 23rd out of 72 qualifiers with a 73.9 run-blocking grade.

I hate to say it, but the film backs up Becton’s poor run-blocking grade. Most Jets fans haven’t seemed to pick up on it yet, but Becton has not looked like himself in the run game this season.

Becton frequently leans into his blocks and whiffs, causing him to get beat with side-steps or arm-overs. On combo blocks, he is often late to peel off and pick up second-level defenders, allowing linebackers to get free shots on the running back. When he’s on the front side of outside zone plays, defenders often cut inside on him to blow up the play. In general, he doesn’t do a great job of latching onto defenders and tends to get shed fairly quickly.

When I was watching the film of the Jets’ run game against Houston, I could not help but notice that Becton was involved in many of the Jets’ unsuccessful runs. The film speaks for itself.

More than anything, it’s troubling that we have not seen many of those dominant highlights that were a fixture in Becton’s rookie year. As a rookie, Becton would rack up a bunch of eye-popping blocks every week that made the rounds on social media. That has not been happening this year. It seems like the injuries have added up for Becton, as I don’t see the same physical dominance he displayed in 2020 and at Louisville.

Running behind Becton was supposed to be a focal point of the Jets’ offense this year, but in reality, the Jets are continuously getting stuffed when they try to run behind him. In Becton’s 10 starts at left tackle, the Jets’ running backs are averaging only 2.9 yards per carry when rushing to the left side. In the same games, they are averaging 4.4 yards per carry when rushing to the right side.

Even worse, the Jets are generating nearly three times as much yardage before contact on right-side carries than they are on left-side carries. In Becton’s starts at left tackle, the running backs are averaging 0.6 yards before contact per carry when going left and 1.7 when going right, per NGS. For reference, the 2023 league average for yards before contact per carry at NGS is 1.0.

Directional rushing stats aren’t necessarily an ideal tool for evaluating individual players, but those numbers line up with what the film is showing. Becton is not paving roads in the run game like he was expected to.

Penalties

On top of it all, Becton is highly penalty-prone. He has been called for 10 penalties, tying him for the third-most among tackles. This includes five false starts, three holding calls, one unnecessary roughness, and one ineligible downfield.

Becton had eight penalties over 739 offensive snaps in his first two seasons. With 10 penalties over 701 snaps in 2023, he now has 18 penalties over 1,440 snaps in his career. That’s an average of about 12.5 penalties per 1,000 snaps. For perspective, the league average among tackles this season is 7.7, which means Becton’s career penalty-per-snap rate is 62% higher than the 2023 league average for his position.

Should the Jets re-sign Becton?

First of all, let’s be clear: The franchise tag is off the table. According to Over The Cap, the projected cost of franchise-tagging an offensive lineman in 2024 is $21.7 million. There is no way the Jets can justify that.

Spotrac estimates Becton’s market value to be $12.9 million. That is more reasonable and very well could be the price Becton demands on the open market given his reputation as a high-ceiling first-round pick.

The NFL’s offensive line talent pool is in the midst of a dry spell. Some teams out there could be willing to pay up for the potential Becton offers. Remember, the Jets signed George Fant to a three-year, $27 million contract in 2020 based solely on projection, as Fant was a backup for most of his career. Becton’s hypothetical ceiling is far more appealing than that of Fant, who was a former UDFA. Teams are willing to pay for potential with offensive linemen and Becton offers as much of that as anyone.

A good comparison is Andre Dillard, who signed a three-year, $29 million contract ($13 million guaranteed) with the Titans earlier this year. Dillard was a first-round pick of the Eagles in 2019 but only started nine games in four years with mixed results. Nonetheless, Tenessee paid a pretty penny to bet on Dillard’s potential. It’s worth noting that the gamble is not paying off as Dillard leads tackles in sacks allowed (10) despite ranking 64th in pass-blocking snaps (270).

So, yes, Becton could absolutely end up fetching a deal that lands somewhere from $10-13 million per year. In my opinion, though, that would be an overpay. Based on all of the information we analyzed today and coupled with his career durability, I do not believe Becton is worth anything close to eight figures per year on the open market.

The durability factor is the key to all of this. Yes, Becton has stayed healthy this year, but that doesn’t erase the past. To this point, Becton has still played in just 27 of 63 possible games in his career. Becton also exited the game for at least one snap in 10 of his 27 appearances, meaning he has played 100% of the snaps in just 17 of 63 possible games.

The Jets have dealt with unfathomable injury woes along the offensive line. Injuries are mostly out of a team’s control, but they can tilt the odds in their favor by staying away from players with a prior injury history. Becton remains a massive injury risk. Relying on him to start is not a wise move for a team that must do everything in its power to control its injury issues.

Above all, Becton has not played well this season. Despite the popular narrative that Becton has been a solid starter, there isn’t much evidence out there to support that claim. His numbers are shoddy and the film backs them up.

If the Jets can re-sign Becton for an affordable cost ($6-8 million per year with low guarantees) to be their backup swing tackle and/or compete for a starting spot, then I’d be in. The Jets should load up their offensive line depth chart with as many talented pieces as possible, and Becton is as talented as they come. He does carry value for this team and can help them succeed next year – but only at the right price and in the right role.

If the Jets pay eight figures per year for Becton to be a surefire starter, I believe it would be a mistake based on everything we’ve seen from the numbers and film. His production does not warrant handing him a starting role in 2024. If that’s where Becton’s market price goes, the Jets should allow another team to take that risk.

New York should be focused on finding two starting tackles that provide a reliable track record of both production and durability. Becton does not check either box and therefore should not be considered a potential solution in the starting lineup – unless it’s part of a competition (preferably against a legitimate starter-quality talent, not a backup-level player as was the case this season).