Could NY Jets fill LT spot with high-profile cut candidate?

Perhaps the New York Jets’ most appealing tackle solution isn’t on the market yet

Many times throughout the past couple of months, we’ve discussed the lack of talent within the free agent offensive tackle market. This could be problematic for a New York Jets team that desperately needs help at tackle.

While the market looks shallow at the moment, it’s always possible for the talent pool to deepen after players are cut around the league. There will be more players available to sign than it currently appears.

One of the most intriguing cut candidates at tackle is Cam Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Alabama product has been a solid starting left tackle for Jacksonville since 2017. He is one of the highest-paid left tackles in football, ranking sixth at the position with an average salary of $18 million per year on his current contract (per Spotrac).

Cutting Robinson would have little to do with his performance. Jacksonville finds itself in a shaky cap situation and has the pieces in place to survive the loss of Robinson, so the team might decide to part ways with him to reap the savings he would provide.

Jacksonville would net $16.1 million in savings by releasing Robinson. With two homegrown highly-drafted tackles on the team (first-round pick Anton Harrison and second-round pick Walker Little), they would not have to put any of the savings toward replacing Robinson.

Should the Jets make an aggressive bid for Robinson if he hits the free agent market?

Jets free agent profiles:

• Ravens G Kevin Zeitler
• Raiders T Jermaine Eluemunor
• Saints G James Hurst
• Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley
• Buccaneers WR Mike Evans
• Cowboys T Tyron Smith
• Rams G Kevin Dotson
• Packers G Jon Runyan
• Packers T David Bakhtiari
• Bengals WR Tee Higgins
• Jaguars G Ezra Cleveland
• Chiefs T Donovan Smith
• Patriots T Michael Onwenu

Basic info

• Age: 28.3
• Height: 6-foot-6
• Weight: 335 pounds
• College: Alabama
• Experience: 7 years (Drafted Round 2, Pick 34 overall by Jacksonville in 2017)
• Teams: Jaguars (2017-present)
• Previous contract: 3 years, $54M (Signed in March 2022)

Measurables

• Data from 2017 Combine (via Mockdraftable)
• Percentiles among all-time offensive tackle prospects

• Height: 6’6″ (61st percentile)
• Weight: 322 pounds (74th)
• Arm length: 35.5in (90th)
• Hand size: 10.5in (81st)
• 40-yard dash: 5.15s (73rd)
• Vertical jump: 26in (24th)
• 3-cone: 7.81s (46th)
• 20-yard shuttle: 4.82s (36th)

Robinson earned a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 7.98/10.

Role

In all 84 of his career games, Robinson started at left tackle. Outside of two snaps at left guard in 2022, he’s never moved away from left tackle (save for some plays in 2022 and 2023 where the Jaguars had six linemen on the field and shuffled players around).

Robinson only made nine starts in 2023. He missed the first four games due to a PED suspension and later missed another four-game stretch due to a knee injury, which he returned from before the end of the season.

2023 performance

Excellent pass protection

Every available metric agreed that Robinson was one of the best pass-blocking tackles in the league this season. Here are his ranks out of 83 qualified tackles (min. 200 pass-block snaps) in four different metrics designed to capture overall pass-blocking quality:

• 10th in Pro Football Focus net pressure rate (-2.4%)
• 17th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade (77.9)
• 13th in Sports Info Solutions blown pass-block rate (2.9%)
• 11th in Next Gen Stats pressure rate (7.4%)

Robinson’s average ranking across the four categories was 12.8, placing eighth-best among qualified tackles:

1. Tyron Smith, DAL (4.0)
2. Terron Armstead, MIA (4.3)
3. Tristan Wirfs, TB (7.5)
4. Kolton Miller, LV (9.5)
5. Laremy Tunsil, HOU (9.8)
6. Trent Williams, SF (11.0)
7. Penei Sewell, DET (11.3)
8. Cam Robinson, JAX (12.8)
9. Dion Dawkins, BUF (14.8)
10. Rob Havenstein, LAR (15.0)

Brutal run-blocking

While Robinson’s pass-blocking numbers were pristine across the board, his run-blocking numbers were equally poor.

Robinson’s 51.0 run-blocking grade at PFF ranked 68th out of 83 qualified tackles. Sports Info Solution’s blown run-block rate was in agreement, placing Robinson last among tackles with a 6.7% rate. While I think SIS’s offensive line metrics tend to be erratic and fairly unreliable (even more so than PFF’s), it grabs my attention when a player fares extremely poorly on both sites.

Robinson was part of a brutal Jaguars run game that ranked 30th in yards per rush attempt (3.6). However, I looked into the differences in Jacksonville’s rushing success with and without Robinson on the field, and Robinson comes out looking a little better.

In games where Robinson played the majority of the snaps, the Jaguars averaged 4.1 yards per attempt on designed runs to the left side. In all other games, that number was 3.0. This eases a small bit of concern about his run blocking struggles – although, as we’re about to get into, Robinson’s poor individual run blocking metrics in 2023 were nothing new.

Comparing 2023 performance to previous track record

Robinson’s 2023 statistical output was pretty much exactly the same as it was in 2022 and 2021. He’s gone three straight seasons with impressive pass blocking and poor run blocking.

In each of the past three seasons, Robinson posted a PFF pass-blocking grade above 74.0, ranked better than the positional average in both PFF’s pressure rate and SIS’s blown pass-block rate, and posted a PFF run-blocking grade below 58.0.

The accuracy of offensive line metrics can be shaky, but when you have a steady picture like this, featuring consistency in multiple metrics across multiple seasons, it is likely that the numbers are telling the correct story. You know what you’re getting with Robinson: Great pass protection and shoddy run blocking.

Robinson had a rough start to his career with penalties but has developed into an average player in that area. Over the past three seasons, Robinson committed 17 penalties on 2,304 offensive snaps, an average of 7.4 penalties per 1,000 snaps that is almost identical to the 2023 league average for tackles (7.3).

Scheme fit

At least from a statistical perspective, it appears Robinson has consistently struggled in all concepts as a run blocker throughout his career, so it’s not as if this aspect of his profile matters too much. Still, it’s worth taking into account.

The Jaguars’ run scheme was fairly balanced in 2022, which was head coach Doug Pederson’s first season with the team. Based on PFF’s tracking, Robinson had 161 zone-blocking snaps and 151 gap-blocking snaps. However, in 2023, the Jaguars started leaning heavier toward the gap-blocking game. Robinson had 77 zone-blocking snaps and 107 gap-blocking snaps.

While I’m not sure there’s necessarily an ideal run scheme for maximizing Robinson’s impact in the run game, I do love how his pass protection would fit with the Jets. I think he is the perfect type of tackle to help an Aaron Rodgers-led Jets passing attack reach its full potential.

Robinson has extremely long arms at 35.5 inches (90th percentile among tackles), which he has used to become a highly reliable pass-blocker over the past few years. More specifically, his build and skill set has led to tremendous success in true pass sets (excludes plays with fewer than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks, and throws under 2 seconds). In 2023, Robinson allowed pressure on just 5.5% of his true pass sets, ranking fifth-best among left tackles:

1. Tyron Smith, DAL (3.4%)
2. Kolton Miller, LV (4.2%)
3. Laremy Tunsil, HOU (5.0%)
4. Tristan Wirfs, TB (5.3%)
5. Cam Robinson, JAX (5.5%)

We know Aaron Rodgers will never have issues getting the ball out quickly and limiting interceptions, but to play up to his fullest potential, Rodgers must be able to make big plays downfield. With a left tackle who can protect at an elite level on long-developing passing plays, Rodgers would receive enough time and space to maximize the potential of the Jets’ downfield game, allowing Garrett Wilson (and whoever else the Jets add at wide receiver) to feast in the deep parts of the field.

Here are three clips from the Jaguars’ Week 6 win over the Colts that I thought served as great examples of Robinson’s abilities in pass protection. With long arms, a sturdy build, and a strong anchor, Robinson can dominate one-on-one reps, creating stellar pockets for the QB.

Durability

Playing in 84 out of 115 games in his career (12.4 out of every 17 games), Robinson does have some injury concerns.

As mentioned earlier, Robinson played only nine games in 2023. He missed four games due to a PED suspension and four more with a knee injury, although he returned to play the final two games of the season.

Robinson missed three games apiece in the 2022 and 2021 seasons. He was on injured reserve at the conclusion of both seasons. In 2022, he suffered a season-ending meniscus injury that held him out of two playoff games in addition to the final three regular season games.

Robinson suffered a torn ACL in his second season that limited him to two games in 2018.

Ultimately, Robinson has only played a full season once, coming back in 2020.

Projected cost

Spotrac projects Robinson would be worth $15.3 million per year on the open market. I think that seems fairly reasonable. It’s a slight decline from the $17.6 million per year that he signed for back in 2022.

Considering the increase in the salary cap since then, an approximately $2 million decline in his AAV makes sense given his overall stock. Robinson is a great pass-blocking left tackle and remains just 28 years old, so he is likely to soar well into the eight-figure tier, but his poor run blocking and shaky durability do shave a few millions off his value.

I would be surprised if Robinson exceeded Spotrac’s projection. However, I would not be surprised if he fell well short of it. In addition to the concerns with run blocking and injuries, there would be the simple fact that Robinson is getting cut by his team. That’s never a great look for someone heading onto the open market.

One team’s cast-off can always be another team’s stud. Still, you can’t help but second-guess a player when his old team – who knows more about him than anyone – decides they didn’t need him anymore. With this in mind, it’s possible that Robinson comes nowhere close to Spotrac’s projection. I’d view the $15.3 million number as more of a ceiling than a median projection.

Flag Check

I wrote a pair of articles that analyzed what the Jets can learn from their hits and misses in free agency. The idea was to determine which green flags and red flags at the time of the signings turned out to be the best predictors of what would happen.

Let’s take a look at Robinson’s profile and see which aspects of it are reminiscent of the Jets’ hits (like D.J. Reed and Tyler Conklin) and which aspects are concerningly similar to the Jets’ whiffs (like Laken Tomlinson and C.J. Uzomah).

Green flags

The best trait on Robinson’s resume is his consistency. Because his production is so stable on a yearly basis, you have a good idea of what you’re getting.

Furthermore, I like that Robinson tends to have stability in his metrics across multiple stat-tracking sources. This suggests that his numbers are legitimate. If he is putting up great pass-blocking numbers in four different metrics across three different websites, it is safe to assume is a great pass blocker. I don’t see Laken Tomlinson or C.J. Uzomah-esque red flags that suggest his numbers could be misleading. Robinson’s resume is reliable (in the pass game).

I also think Robinson’s overall developmental arc is promising when projecting his future outlook.

Coming out of Alabama in 2017, Robinson was viewed as a toolsy draft prospect with great upside, but he was also considered a work in progress. His rawness caused him to fall out of the first round, but he still got drafted high in the second round on the basis of his traits and potential.

Once in the NFL, Robinson proceeded to mostly live up to his lofty potential. He won the starting left tackle job from day one of his rookie year (on an AFCCG-bound team), earned a lucrative contract extension after his fourth season, and consistently generated some of the league’s best numbers in pass protection. With a resume like this, stemming from his draft profile and continuing all the way through his career, you get the sense that Robinson is viewed by NFL teams as a true high-end talent that would be welcome in any offense.

Red flags

Robinson’s run blocking isn’t something that can be ignored. While I think the Jets will (and should) value pass blocking over run blocking, it does seem like Robinson is very poor as a run blocker, not just mediocre. His pass blocking outweighs it, but it will rear its ugly head at times. It’s fair to wonder whether a player can justify earning over $15 million per year when he is regarded as a liability in one of the game’s two phases.

Robinson’s durability track record is somewhat concerning. It’s not close to a David Bakhtiari or Tyron Smith level, but it makes him slightly less appealing.

There is also the concern of Robinson being cut by his former team, as we discussed earlier.

The verdict

I think Joe Douglas should certainly make a run at Robinson if he becomes available. In this market, he’d immediately be one of the top three tackles available, joining Tyron Smith and Michael Onwenu. Perhaps Trent Brown could join the conversation. After that, though, there is an enormous gap.

As I’ve stated many times while discussing the Jets’ offseason plans, I think they should prioritize pass protection when evaluating offensive linemen. Protecting Aaron Rodgers is the single most important goal for the entire franchise. If they have to deal with some subpar run blocking, so be it.

Robinson fits the bill, offering a reliable resume in pass protection. He would provide Rodgers with tremendous security on the blind side, giving him an opportunity to comfortably stand in the pocket and scan the field.

The run blocking is concerning, but given the lack of appealing options on the veteran market, I don’t think the Jets can afford to be picky about that. If Robinson becomes a free agent and the Jets avoid making an offer because of his run blocking, they could strike out on the few other high-end tackles and end up with a replacement-level tackle who is similarly poor as a run blocker yet nowhere remotely close as a pass blocker.

As always, it comes down to money. Spotrac’s estimation of over $15 million per year is rather hefty. The Jets will be on a relatively tight budget this offseason, and they also must ensure they keep enough resources available to fill multiple starting spots on the offensive line. Signing Robinson to a large contract might hinder their ability to find sufficient talent for their other OL vacancies.

With that being said, I think Robinson would still be worth it at that price. Even after signing Robinson to that deal, a path would remain for New York to fill out a strong offensive line.

The free agent guard market is deep with solid mid-level starters who probably will not be too expensive. The Jets wouldn’t have any trouble fitting someone like James Hurst or Jon Runyan into the picture after splurging on Robinson. On top of that, the Jets can still expect to add a starting tackle with the 10th overall pick in the draft.

I recently broke down Michael Onwenu and suggested that I probably would not advise the Jets to pursue him if he costs over $15 million per year. If you read that breakdown, you might be wondering why I’m advocating for Robinson in a similar price range after advising against Onwenu, as Onwenu has a better run-blocking reputation than Robinson coupled with a similar pass-blocking reputation – not to mention being younger and more durable.

Here’s the reason why I’d be okay with Robinson on a lucrative deal but not Onwenu: The certainty of their pass blocking projections.

As we’ve discussed with Robinson, it feels like a very safe bet that he will continue to protect at a high level. With Onwenu, I do not feel the same way.

While Onwenu has good protection numbers himself, I’m concerned about whether his numbers were buoyed by the environment in New England. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots had a long-running reputation for effectively developing offensive linemen. Additionally, their scheme in recent years has been predicated on releasing the ball extremely quickly, which could have inflated Onwenu’s numbers. These two questions have me skeptical of whether Onwenu’s statistical success would translate to another team.

Speaking of Onwenu’s pass-blocking numbers, they weren’t quite as good as Robinson’s in 2023. Earlier in this piece, I mentioned how Robinson ranked eighth-best among 83 qualified tackles with an average ranking of 12.8 across four pass-blocking categories (net pressure rate, PFF pass-block grade, SIS blown-block rate, and NGS pressure rate). Onwenu’s average ranking in those same categories was exactly 10 spots worse at 22.8, which placed 19th.

So, not only does Robinson offer better pass blocking production in 2023, but his success feels more sustainable to me because he did it in a less favorable environment. He had already proved himself worthy of a three-year, $54 million contract by March 2022, when he was coming off a season of blocking for a rookie Trevor Lawrence and playing in a circus situation under Urban Meyer. Robinson only continued to build on his success after that.

Plus, we don’t even know if NFL teams view Onwenu as a tackle. After moving around during his first two seasons, the Patriots solidified Onwenu as a right guard in 2022, as he started all 17 of his games there. Onwenu was the opening week starting right guard once again in 2023 until the Patriots made a mid-season change to push Onwenu back outside. The versatility Onwenu offers is a tremendous plus, but the flip side is that he doesn’t have a firmly established position where he feels like a sure thing.

Simply put, I feel much more confident saying Robinson will be a top-tier pass-blocking tackle for the Jets in 2024 than I would be if I said the same for Onwenu. That’s why I think Robinson would be a worthwhile pursuit for New York even if he is expensive. It’s all about protecting Aaron Rodgers for the New York Jets, and Robinson appears to be one of the most reliable blind-side protectors in football. That’s worth a pretty penny in the QB-driven NFL.

And, as we discussed earlier, I don’t even think it’s a guarantee that Robinson will come close to Spotrac’s projection of over $15 million per year. He might end up being far more affordable than that.

Either way, Robinson’s on-field track record is intriguing enough to the point that Joe Douglas should undoubtedly ensure he is one of the first people to give Robinson a call if Jacksonville lets him hit the open market.