How many times have you heard it? How often have we heard Robert Saleh preaching about what he envisions his football team to be?
“Physical.”
“Aggressive.”
“All gas, no brake.”
Time and again, the Saleh-led New York Jets were conceived in a specific way that forced onlookers to envision something that hadn’t yet played out in reality. This thought project is just one of the many reasons why high hopes reigned supreme heading into the 2024 NFL season.
Naturally, as has played out more routinely than a clutch Francisco Lindor at-bat, the Jets’ expectations have not yet matched reality. Interestingly, the very same reason expectations are turbo-charged—Saleh’s team-identity goals—represents the culprit for what’s holding the team back.
Forcing team identity goals to the point of rigidness creates far too much predictability on the field.
Slow starts: Game planning was too internal
“If we handle our own business, we can beat anybody.”
Admittedly, there is a certain point in which a strong internal structure is important, but the percentage with which the Jets focused on internal business sunk them in the Saleh regime.
The numbers for what I’m about to say are not needed considering every Jets fan understands reality: The team’s slow starts to games were both horrific and telling. (And we’re not simply discussing the offense.)
Against Minnesota last week, Aaron Jones sliced up the Jets to open the game. In Saleh’s first three years, the “start slow, make in-game adjustments, only to scratch back” trend was firmer than anything experienced.
Week 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs just a year ago points to a horrendous defensive effort out of the starting block. Even the season opener against the Buffalo Bills featured Josh Allen jumping all over them.
Naturally, the Jets’ slow starts continued under Saleh in 2024, which boils down to a lack of opponent-specific game-planning.
New York’s 23-17 loss to the Minnesota Vikings began as horrendously as possible for the team in green and white. In addition to the defense allowing Jones to cut through them, the offense’s game plan curiously featured ideas that could not match up better against Brian Flores’s aggressive defense.
For some absurd reason, the Jets’ called a power on the first offensive play. Of course, they ran it right into an ultra-aggressive early-down Vikings defense that sent Harrison Smith off the edge:
Not even five Hall of Fame offensive linemen could enjoy consistent success against these numbers:
Ok, hey … it happens. Never can an offense go through the entire game without putting itself in at least one horrible situation. Right? And besides, it is just one play of one single game.
Well … . This porous game-planning put the Jets behind the eight-ball to start nearly every game.
Everybody knows Flores as a defensive play-caller. He’s extremely aggressive, and he also understands the Jets to their core—a team that badly wants to establish the rushing attack, something they have failed to do all season.
With that in mind, how in the world is power the first call of this particular contest? It’s a play that doesn’t allow flexibility in the face of overwhelming numbers, and it also relies on your own players being better than the opponent’s.
While, sure, New York’s second play was a play-action on a second-and-9 situation against a Vikings’ five-man rush (resulting in an errant Aaron Rodgers throw), the Jets’ rushing attack was far too predictable. Plus, after stopping the first rush attempt cold, it’s a safe bet to believe Flores doesn’t aggressively attack with his run fits on second down. After all, Flores has already hit his goal on the series: He put the offense in a tough situation (second and 9).
Therefore, play-action does nothing there.
On third and long, Flores, of course, brings the heat with a seven-man rush, forcing an incompletion. Whereas second and 9 is still a run-pass situation, third and long is pass all the way.
Formation predictability
A side effect of a team attempting to impose its will against the defense is formation predictability. When trying to run the ball out of heavier looks (21, 12, or 13 personnel), an offense becomes quite predictable if nothing’s happening.
Gaining nothing or a yard on early downs ultimately forces the offense to open it up with 11 personnel or lighter on third and long.
Incredibly, the Jets did not attempt their first rush out of 11 personnel or lighter until the 1:22 mark of the first half:
And what do you know? Breece Hall actually popped for a nice seven-yard gain on first down. Sure, the Vikings are going to play it a little more conservatively in this situation, with the first half winding down, but it was absolutely more about the formation (via unpredictability).
All told, the Jets used heavier looks (12, 21 or 13 personnel) 10 times in the first half. They ran the ball six times and threw the ball four times (one of which was a wide receiver screen on a great call that should have hit for more yardage).
The run-pass ratio wasn’t the problem; instead, it boiled down to run-fitting predictability.
Without a more open look, Flores knew he could aggressively run fit without worrying too much about the over-the-top game. When an offense goes heavy and condensed, to boot, it’s much easier to recover on the back end if/when fooled.
The Jets’ longest rush out of a heavy look in the first half was two yards. The first time they hit the ground in 11 personnel or lighter, they pop off for seven yards.
When sprinkling in the first series of the second half, here’s how the Jets’ run-pass ratio (and output) looks out of heavier personnel:
- 8 rush attempts out of 12 plays using heavy-personnel formations (rush gain long of two yards).
- 4 pass attempts out of 12 plays using heavy-personnel formations.
Tempo, tempo, tempo
Never does predictability boil down to the run-pass ratio, either. Although it’s a major component, it’s simply one element of a much larger pie.
For instance, the Jets’ first play of the Denver Broncos game was, indeed, a pass. New York began with 21 personnel (the old-school 21 personnel, pro formation with a classic I-form) and ran right into a sack.
Like Flores, Vance Joseph is also an extremely aggressive defensive coordinator. What in the world did you think he was going to do on the first play of the game?
Yet again, the Jets played poorly to open the game. They desperately attempted to get the rushing game going early and often, but they deployed a standard tempo that often leaned on the sluggish side.
Interestingly, Nathaniel Hackett hit all the right notes against the New England Patriots just a week prior. Look at how they started their impressive 24-3 victory on Thursday night against the Pats:
The Jets came out in a 3×1 bunch look that was condensed across the board. Figuring New England would be on its toes defensively—which they certainly were—the play-action boot worked perfectly.
Garrett Wilson nearly snags a first down on the sift action underneath the zone play fake.
Sure, the pass itself out of this look is a great call to start the night, but taking note of the whole mentality is much more important.
Aaron Rodgers led a no-huddle, hurry-up look right from the jump against the Pats. While the first drive ultimately stalled, it had nothing to do with the game plan. Instead, it dealt with a crippling penalty.
As we saw that night, however, it did not matter. Coming out with this shocking mentality—which was very “un-Jet-like” stunned New England to its core. Its usually aggressive defense couldn’t take the same liberties it put on film over the course of the first two weeks.
The same success can be applied to the defense, too.
Generally speaking, we understand the Jets’ defense. They’re a talented unit that often bends but does not break while priding itself on locking it down in the red zone.
A staple of this New York unit is its conservative strategic nature. (Yes, they are aggressive in nature, as per hustle and gap-filling, but the Xs and Os showcase a conservative brand of defense.)
The Jets defense rarely blitzes. It can do this courtesy of its (arguably) league-best pass-coverage play. But on this night, Jeff Ulbrich sent the heat at Jacoby Brissett on the very first third-and-long situation (as seen in the above video).
Now, both the offense and defense have started the game with very uncharacteristic mentalities—as far as the book on the Jets is concerned.
Jerod Mayo’s team found itself stunned, and it never recovered.
The fix is more opponent-specific
Why would Robert Saleh approve a more aggressive game plan against the Patriots yet return to the same-old Jet-like tactics against the Broncos and Vikings? Well, I have no idea. Your guess would be as good as mine.
My best guess, however, would boil down to Saleh’s internal ways.
We already understand why the Jets have remained stubborn in the rushing attack area; heck, every coach would remain stubborn in this area, as rushing the ball is a necessity, and Saleh’s mandate includes a worthy rushing attack.
The problem lies within the modern game.
Remaining stubborn to one idea isn’t nearly as good as it used to be. Teams of the 1990s or even 2000s could continue pounding the ball, time and again, understanding that one will pop for a solid gain eventually. With physicality still a major component in football, relying on your players to unanimously win provides the chance to hit one big—providing enough tries are triggered.
Today, however, strategy and scheme rule the roost. If the numbers aren’t there, very little else matters. And the only way to get the numbers on your side, scheming your way is the only avenue.
The Jets should have, quite literally, recycled the Patriot’s game plan each week. Sure, variations would show face, but an uptempo feel on offense with aggression on defense, to begin the game, would continually keep the opposition off-balance.
Not until the entire NFL received the message, loud and clear, should the Jets then consider changing.
Additionally, concerning oneself with one team’s identity and one’s own play cannot cancel poor scheming in today’s NFL. After the Vikings’ loss, Saleh said that his team’s top priority in the week leading up to the London affair revolved around playing “clean ball.”
Hey, considering the number of penalties the Jets have committed in the Saleh era, I get it. The penalty issue has been unacceptable and lends absolute truth to the “accountability” factor interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich has been preaching all week.
The problem with “clean ball” is when it reigns supreme in the hierarchical structure.
Whether it’s penalties or turnovers, “clean ball” is complementary in nature. For example, the New York Giants finished tied for first in turnover margin in 2023 (+0.7 per game). They finished 6-11.
The Kansas City Chiefs finished tied for 23rd in turnover margin per game (-0.4), and they won the Super Bowl. The Detroit Lions made an NFC championship game appearance after finishing tied for 13th (+0.1).
Demeco Ryans made a splash in 2023, as his young Houston Texans won a playoff game. How in the world did they do that when leading the league in penalty yards per game, with 78.2?
The answer is simple: It’s no longer 1988.
Scheme and opponent-specific strategy are, by far, the No. 1 game in modern football. From Kyle Shanahan to Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes to Josh Allen, successful franchises understand that scheming ways to get a jump on the competition is the clear-cut top dog in today’s football hierarchy.
Unfortunately, no matter Robert Saleh’s solid head-coaching qualities—such as defender development, having an eye for personnel, communication, etc.—none of it matters when the entire league knows what the Jets intend to do on Sunday.
Now, with Jeff Ulbrich at the head-coaching helm and Todd Downing calling the offensive shots, the New York Jets have a golden opportunity to use their recent predictability against the rest of the National Football League.
Make them get to the point where they have to respect the unexpected. Once accomplished, then, and only then, can true team identity goals, from a strategic standpoint, start to come into focus.
Until then, provide the players the best chance to succeed—against the specific opponent of this very moment (Buffalo Bills)—and allow the chips to fall where they naturally may.
