Is New York Jets star Garrett Wilson the best wide receiver in the NFL?
Box-score numbers aside, there are plenty of advanced metrics suggesting that he very well might be, at least based on his performance over the first five weeks of the 2026 season.
Wilson has been especially fantastic when it comes to getting open. According to ESPN Analytics, Wilson leads wide receivers with an “open score” of 91 out of a maximum 100, a metric that uses player-tracking data to quantify a receiver’s ability to create separation.
Not only does it rank first at the position, but the gap between him and second-ranked Mike Evans (84) is larger than the gap between fourth-place DeVonta Smith and 10th-place Drake London (76).
- Garrett Wilson (91)
- Mike Evans (84)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (79)
- DeVonta Smith (76)
- Jameson Williams (75)
- Malik Washington (74)
- Demario Douglas (71)
- Kalif Raymond (71)
- Matthew Golden (70)
- Drake London (69)
Not only has Wilson been elite at creating separation, but he has also been outstanding at the catch point, particularly compared to other high-volume receivers. According to NFL Pro, Wilson’s “catch rate over expected” (CROE) is 16.0%, tops among the 15 receivers who have seen at least 40 targets.
Essentially, based on tracking data that accounts for depth of target, the distance from the nearest defender, the angle of the pass, distance from the sideline, the receiver’s speed when the ball arrives, and many other factors, Wilson’s catch rate is 16% higher than the average NFL receiver’s would be with the same diet of throws.
CROE is intended to account for the average difficulty of a receiver’s targets, allowing all receivers’ raw catch rates can be compared on the same plane; a player who sees mostly short targets will obviously catch a higher percentage of his targets than one who sees mostly deep targets, but it doesn’t mean Player A is better at catching the ball. By accounting for how often a player should be “expected” to catch each target, all players’ pure catching skill can be evaluated head-to-head.
It’s easy to see why Wilson’s CROE is so high. Wilson has been tagged with just one drop this season, per Pro Football Focus, while he has secured 8 of 11 contested targets. His 72.7% contested catch rate is the best among the 14 players who have seen at least 10 contested targets.
While Wilson’s box-score numbers are pretty enough—31 receptions for 374 yards and 3 touchdowns in 5 games—none of those numbers rank top-four among wide receivers, and he isn’t even top-10 in receiving yards. It’s the advanced metrics that showcase how fantastic Wilson has really been when focusing on factors that are within his control.
Yes, Geno Smith has been the best overall and most accurate quarterback of Wilson’s career, and it shows in Wilson’s career-best pace through five games. Still, though, Smith is an average starter at best, and Wilson has also dealt with other obstacles putting a cap on his statistical ceiling.
Injuries at wide receiver have caused Wilson’s WR2 to be either Isaiah Williams or Tim Patrick for much of the season, while the Jets’ run game has often gone silent. These factors have made it incredibly easy for opponents to double-team Wilson, which the Cleveland Browns blatantly did for much of the Jets’ Week 5 game after a stellar opening drive from Wilson.
Because of all these variables that continue to limit his raw statistical potential, the best way to evaluate Wilson’s true talent and impact remains a deeper dive into his film and/or advanced metrics. And whether you prefer the eye test or the spreadsheet, the same verdict emerges as we head into Week 6: Garrett Wilson has been as good as any NFL wide receiver in 2026.
