Folks, we’ve made it!
No, the New York Jets aren’t making the playoffs for the first time in over 15 years, but we’re at the annual point in the season when fans start anxiously refreshing Tankathon after Sunday’s results come in.
Say whatever you want about the Jets becoming more watchable than last season, being improved on paper, or however you want to put it: they are 2-7. That’s the same record they held through nine games a year ago.
With three first-round selections in April’s NFL draft, the urge to get to draft season is palpable in Jets land. For all those tank folks out there, don’t worry, we’ve got you covered.
By the end of Week 10, the Jets can find themselves holding both the second and third overall picks. Let’s break down how the Jets can get there, along with the SOS (strength-of-schedule) tiebreakers that could help them across the league.
Jets’ path to the Nos. 2 and 3 draft picks by the end of Week 10
First, let’s look at where things stand entering Sunday’s slate.
According to Tankathon, here is a current look at the first 10 selections for April’s draft:
- Los Angeles Chargers: 0-8 (.537 SOS)
- Tennessee Titans: 1-7 (.479)
- Miami Dolphins: 1-7 (.586)
- New York Jets (via Indianapolis Colts): 2-7 (.486)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 2-7 (.503)
- New York Jets: 2-7 (.535)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-6 (.507)
- Arizona Cardinals: 3-6 (.524)
- Atlanta Falcons: 3-6 (.563)
- Houston Texans: 3-5 (.462)
Right now, the Jets hold the fourth and sixth overall picks, along with the Dallas Cowboys’ selection, which currently sits at No. 13. It’s not a bad place to be, to say the least.
Things get exciting when you look at the teams ahead of the Jets in the order. Tennessee and Miami are both sitting at 1-7, while the Jets and Colts are 2-7. That means the Jets have a chance to leapfrog both teams this week.
For that to happen, here are the first three results that the Jets need:
- Jets loss vs. Buffalo Bills
- Titans win vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Dolphins win vs. Colts
If those three games go the Jets’ way, they would fall to 2-8 along with Indianapolis, while Miami and Tennessee would improve to 2-7. The Philadelphia Eagles, meanwhile, are 2-7 and currently sit fifth in the order, and they have a bye week. With that, the Jets and Indy would sit at No. 2 and No. 3.
The Los Angeles Chargers play the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, and they will retain possession of the top pick for now, regardless of their result. Here is what the top six would look like after Week 10 if the aforementioned three games go the Jets’ way (for draft purposes, of course; the Jets themselves would love a victory):
- Los Angeles Chargers: 0-9, 0-8-1, or 1-8
- New York Jets, via Indianapolis Colts: 2-8
- New York Jets: 2-8
- Tennessee Titans: 2-7
- Philadelphia Eagles: 2-7
- Miami Dolphins: 2-7
The Jets’ long-term outlook has a chance to take a substantial leap today. Going from the fourth- and sixth-overall picks to Nos. 2 and 3 would be pretty nice for Gang Green’s future.
There’s also the Dallas pick that New York owns. The Cowboys enter their Week 10 matchup against the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers at 4-5 with their pick sitting at No. 13. A loss to San Francisco would drop the Cowboys to 4-6, and some help could move that pick to No. 11 overall.
In addition to a Dallas loss, this is what the Jets need today to get that selection into the top 11:
- Houston Texans win vs. Cleveland Browns
- New Orleans Saints win vs. Carolina Panthers
Now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty strength-of-schedule tiebreakers.
The SOS chaos
While the Jets could move into the top three without needing SOS help this week, those tiebreakers will become crucial down the stretch.
For context, if teams finish with identical records, the NFL awards the higher draft pick to the team with the lower strength of schedule (SOS), i.e., the combined record of all 17 opponents on a team’s schedule.
For reference, the SOS marks currently displayed at Tankathon include all 17 opponents on each team’s schedule, not just the teams they have played.
Tankathon also has a system that can be used to identify the importance of each NFL game in breaking a specific SOS tiebreaker between two teams. They use a star system, which each star representing a half a game’s worth of movement in the tiebreaker.
In the Jets’ case, keep in mind that helping a particular SOS tiebreaker doesn’t guarantee all three of the Jets’ picks will move up. With three selections to keep track of, there are some conflicting rooting interests.
That said, let’s break down the crucial SOS races.
Jets vs. Titans
The Jets’ SOS currently sits at .53472 compared to the Titans’ .47945. That’s a pretty significant gap, and if the season ended today, Tennessee would clearly win the tiebreaker.
Here are the results that would help the Jets make up some ground:
- 4 stars: Colts over Dolphins
- 2 stars: Lions over Patriots
- 2 stars: Texans over Browns
- 2 stars: Ravens over Chargers
- 1 star: Falcons over Chiefs
- 1 star: Rams over Cardinals
- 1 star: Cowboys over 49ers
This is what we mean by conflicting interests. There are three results that Jets fans would actually root against here, for the bigger picture.
A Colts victory would help them close the SOS gap with Tennessee the most, but the Jets own Indy’s first-round pick, and the focus should be on Indy losing into the top 3 today. The same applies to Dallas, who could climb as high as No. 11 today, and one star doesn’t move the needle left.
Also, the Ravens beating the Chargers would help the SOS battle, but Los Angeles is currently 0-8 with the No. 1 pick. Jets fans would much rather see the Chargers get their first win.
As for the remaining games this season, Detroit, Houston, Atlanta, and the Rams all winning would help the Jets close the gap.
Colts vs. Titans
The Colts are in a much better position against Tennessee, with an SOS of .48592 compared to the Titans’ .47945.
Here are the favorable matchups:
- 1 star: Lions over Patriots
- 1 star: Falcons over Chiefs
- 1 star: Jets over Bills
- 1 star: Packers over Vikings
- 1 star: Raiders over Seahawks
Obviously, it’s not worth rooting for a Jets win if you are in the tank crowd.
Otherwise, wins by Detroit and Atlanta could help swing the tiebreaker. Green Bay and Las Vegas winning would also help.
With such a small difference, this one could swing multiple times before the end of the season.
Colts vs. Dolphins
There is a difference of more than .100 here, giving the Colts a pretty comfortable advantage (.48592 vs. .58621) if both teams finish with identical records.
Here are the results that would help the Colts (New York’s pick):
- 2 stars: 49ers over Cowboys
- 2 stars: Chargers over Ravens
- 1 star: Patriots over Lions
- 1 star: Browns over Texans
- 1 star: Packers over Vikings
- 1 star: Raiders over Seahawks
San Francisco and Los Angeles are the two biggest games here. A 49ers win would improve the Colts’ SOS position even more while also handing another loss. Meanwhile, a Chargers win would help the Colts, too, and tighten the race for the No. 1 pick.
The Patriots and Browns would also help, but those results conflict with the more important race: Jets vs. Titans.
Given how much ground the Jets need to make up against the Titans, I’d prioritize Detroit and Houston winning instead.
Jets vs. Dolphins
Alright, this is the last crucial one. The Jets have an SOS of .53472 compared to Miami’s .58621, a .051 difference in New York’s favor.
That has the Jets in a solid position if both teams finish with identical records.
Here are the results that would help:
- 1 star: Texans over Browns
- 1 star: Jaguars over Titans
- 1 star: Rams over Cardinals
- 1 star: 49ers over Cowboys
- 1 star: Bengals over Steelers
There’s no reason to prioritize Jacksonville winning, because a Titans victory is much more important for the week as a whole. This one is pretty much negligible; the Jets already have a sizable advantage.
For the nerds like myself, though, Houston, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and the Rams all winning would help the Jets maintain or even improve their cushion.
Every Week 10 result Jets fans should root for
Finally, with all of that covered, here is the full rooting guide for Jets fans today as Gang Green’s tank inches toward the top of the draft order.
The biggest games:
- Bills over Jets
- Dolphins over Colts
- Titans over Jaguars
- 49ers over Cowboys
- Chargers over Ravens
The secondary SOS games:
- Lions over Patriots
- Texans over Browns
- Falcons over Chiefs
- Rams over Cardinals
- Packers over Vikings
- Raiders over Seahawks
- Bengals over Steelers
There’s still plenty of football left, but the Jets have a pretty nice chance to skyrocket up the draft board today.
