The New York Jets are aiming for their first regular-season win in Massachusetts against the New England Patriots’ opening-week starting quarterback since 2006.
Aaron Glenn’s squad is not expected to have a great chance of snapping that streak, as the Jets are 7.5-point underdogs heading into the contest.
If the Jets want to make up that gap and pull off the upset, there is a specific battle they must win: the race to 20 points.
The race to 20 will determine Jets-Pats
20 is a critical number for both sides of this AFC East duel. The Jets are 2-0 when they allow fewer than 20 points, compared to 0-3 when their opponent hits the 20-point mark. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 3-0 when they reach 20 points, but 0-2 when they fall short.
In essence, the Jets have proven they can win games when their defense is dominant, but their offense has yet to prove it can be explosive enough to win a high-scoring game. On the other hand, the Patriots have shown they can easily out-pace teams when their offense is clicking, but they have not shown they can win ugly when their offense goes cold.
New York can win ugly, New England can’t.
New England can win in shootout fashion, New York can’t.
At least, this is what we have seen through the first five weeks of 2026, which is a small sample. Tendencies can and will be broken throughout the year. The Jets will probably win a shootout, and the Patriots will probably win a stinker.
So far, though, it seems clear that the Jets’ recipe for an upset victory is to turn this game into a slugfest. They must find a way to drag the Patriots down into the brand of gritty football that favors the Jets.
How can they do that? Well, it’s easier said than done, but the Patriots have already been held to under 20 points in losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars, so the Jets would be wise to follow the blueprints laid out in those games.
The most important cog in shutting down New England’s offense is taking the ball away. The Patriots rank 30th in the league with 11 turnovers. They had three apiece in each of their two losses with under 20 points, compared to two or fewer in their three wins.
Turnovers have been the Patriots’ nemesis offensively. They move the ball well, ranking seventh-best in the league with 35.8 yards per drive, but they’re only 17th with 1.96 points per drive, a disparity that is easily explained by their turnover woes.
If the Jets want to maximize their chances of forcing turnovers, they should consider utilizing a low blitz rate against quarterback Drake Maye, who has been far more turnover-prone and sack-prone when not blitzed this season.
Maye leads the league with 14 combined interceptions (6) and sacks (8) when not blitzed; six of his seven interceptions came on plays when he faced fewer than five pass rushers.
From a rate standpoint, Maye is about twice as likely to commit a sack or interception when he isn’t blitzed. Maye is averaging one sack or interception every 8.1 non-blitzed dropbacks, as opposed to one every 16.0 blitzed dropbacks.
So, Aaron Glenn can tilt the odds in the Jets’ favor by scheming around these tendencies. It would be an unorthodox strategy for the Jets’ defense compared to their usual blitz-heavy approach, but great coaches know how to adapt to their opponents’ strengths and weaknesses.
Another emphasis in the Jets’ game plan should be to seek punch-outs. Besides Maye, who has five fumbles of his own, three other Patriots players have fumbled this season: Rhamondre Stevenson, Romeo Doubs, and Corey Kiner.
It’s risky to ask defenders to overemphasize punch-outs, as it can lead to a spike in missed tackles, but the Jets are going to be heavy road underdogs with three offensive starters sidelined. The juice is worth the squeeze here. It is hard to envision a way that New York can win the game without winning the turnover battle, so it makes sense to coach the defenders into a punch-out-heavy mindset, especially given the Patriots’ proneness to fumbling.
The Jets’ defense has done an excellent job in the fumble department this year. New York ranks second in fumble recoveries (5), second in opponent fumbles (12), and fourth in forced fumbles (7).
Even more impressive is the fact that New York’s seven forced fumbles came from seven different players, implying that the coaching staff has emphasized punch-outs across the entire roster.
Holding New England under 20 points in a grind-it-out-game seems like the Jets’ most realistic path to victory on Sunday, and taking the ball away is the best method to hold the Patriots under that magic number. To get those takeaways, blitzing at a low rate and focusing on punch-outs should be the Jets’ priorities.
