Cutting Avery Williamson would be a foolish move for the New York Jets

Nania's Numbers explains why cutting Avery Williamson to pave the way for James Burgess and/or Neville Hewitt would be preposterous. Because the team can save $6.5 million in cap room by cutting him, there has been plenty of chatter in New York Jets circles about the idea of cutting inside linebacker Avery Williamson. Many fans have cited their confidence in James Burgess and Neville Hewitt---two players who took over some of Williamson's playing time as he missed the season with an ACL injury---as a reason they would feel comfortable about parting with Williamson. Joe Douglas would be doing his football team a disservice by parting ways with a proven starter-quality performer in favor of two players who came in and played like exactly what they are - backups. The data makes it obvious how large the gap is between Williamson and the duo that replaced him. Let's take a look at the Jet X skill spider graphs of all three linebackers in question. Here is how Williamson stacked up among qualified linebackers in 2018: Next, here is a look at how Burgess and Hewitt fared among qualified linebackers in 2019: A quick comparison of those charts makes it clear the difference in quality between these players. Let's look at the specific areas where Williamson has an edge. Tackling Williamson's best trait in the NFL has been his sound tackling. Over the course of his career, Williamson has missed just 33 tackles against 484 converted tackles, a rock-solid miss rate of 6.4%. In 2019, Williamson set a career-low with a 4.8% miss rate (eighth-best among linebackers), whiffing on six tackles and finishing 120. His 3.2% miss rate in the run game ranked at the 92nd percentile at his position, while his 8.3% miss rate in the passing game landed him at the 59th percentile. He posted the second-best tackling grade among linebackers at Pro Football Focus (89.9), trailing only Bobby Wagner. Burgess and Hewitt are at the opposite end of the spectrum as tacklers. In 2019, Burgess ranked in the 27th percentile among qualified linebackers in tackling efficiency (14.4% miss rate) while Hewitt ranked in the 10th percentile (17.7%). None of the three had outlier performances as tacklers in their most recent season. Williamson ranked top-20 in overall tackling efficiency in three of his first four seasons prior to 2018. Burgess had a 17.6% miss rate before joining the Jets. Neville Hewitt owned a 15.1% rate. Going forward, the odds are extremely strong that all three players will continue to finish tackles at the same level they have in the past. Run defense Williamson is known as a classic downhill linebacker, providing exceptional run defense. The Kentucky product has the physicality and technique to handle any type of block, the awareness to sniff out plays, and the discipline to fill his gap assignments correctly. He avoids greedily over-running plays, keeping the run in front of him and trading splashy stuffs for big play prevention. Of course, you already know about his sublime tackling ability. In 2018, Williamson earned a run defense grade of 85.9 that ranked fourth-best out of 61 qualified linebackers (95th percentile). He was even better with the Titans in 2017, tying for second at his position with a 90.2 grade (trailing Tampa Bay's Lavonte David). Over the course of his five seasons, Williamson has never ranked lower than the 69th percentile in run-defense grade (among linebackers with 500+ snaps). Burgess and Hewitt do not have close to the same resume against the run. Hewitt was flat-out bad as a run defender in 2019, ranking at the 11th percentile with a 44.5 grade. He missed a lot of tackles, displayed poor recognition, and was frequently sealed out of the hole at the second level. Burgess, on the other hand, was more of a mixed bag against the run. His 58.8 grade landed him at the 45th percentile, right in the middle of the pack. On the plus side, Burgess was highly active. His run-stop percentage (a "run stop" is considered a tackle that constitutes a negative value result for the offense) of 10.7% ranked fourth-best out of 65 qualified linebackers. The downside was his tackling. He missed nine tackles against 35 made tackles, giving him a 23.7% that ranked fourth-worst among qualified linebackers. I think Burgess benefited from great defensive line play to rack up the stuff numbers, and that his tackling tells a better story about his actual performance. This rep exemplifies how Burgess racked up a lot of his production in 2019. Steve McLendon dominates the right tackle, who was supposed to block Burgess at the second level. Burgess is able to get into the backfield uncontested and force the stuff (still missing the tackle, which Arthur Maulet received credit for). Time after time, the Jets defensive line absorbed multiple blockers to give Burgess an opportunity to reach the runner unscathed. Kudos to Burgess for making the plays, but there is not a ton of value with a player who benefits from the success of others rather than out-playing opponents himself. The Jets fielded the second-best run defense (according to DVOA) in 2019. It is downright scary to think about how good they could be if they are fortunate enough to elevate from Burgess, Hewitt, and Blake Cashman to Williamson and C.J. Mosley. Coverage None of these three players are known for their coverage. However, two of them are major liabilities in coverage, and the other is just okay. You guessed it, the decent one of the bunch is Williamson. His coverage grade of 60.7 in 2018 landed him at the 42nd percentile among linebackers. That was a career-best mark, but he has stayed in the same ballpark throughout his time in the league. His average coverage grade prior to 2018 was a 57.0. Williamson does not have the cover talent (twitchiness, hips, etc.) to take on deep zone or man-to-man responsibilities, which has made him vulnerable when picked on. He has allowed awful numbers of 9.5 yards per target and a 123.4 passer rating over his career, yielding 14 touchdowns against only three interceptions. His numbers with the Jets in 2018 were right on par with that (9.5 yards per target, 116.7 rating, three touchdowns, one interception). So, how in the world could Williamson be considered passable in coverage with those numbers? The answer: his ability to limit targets in his direction. When Williamson gets beat, he gets beat bad, but he has done a good job of using his intelligence and recognition to minimize the number of throws in his direction. In 2018, Williamson was targeted 56 times over 550 snaps in coverage. That average of 9.8 cover snaps per target ranked ninth-best out of 93 qualifiers (91st percentile). Williamson has ranked in the top-10 of the stat (among linebackers with at least 200 snaps in coverage) in every season of his career. This is the reason he ranked in the 59th percentile of fewest yards allowed per cover snap in 2018 (0.97), and why he has given up just 0.90 yards per cover snap and 23.3 yards per game over his career. Burgess and Hewitt do not offer good target prevention or on-ball coverage. In 2019, Burgess ranked in the 12th percentile with 1.40 yards allowed per cover snap, while Hewitt ranked in the 33rd percentile with a mark of 1.20. Burgess ranked in the 36th percentile of coverage grade (55.3), Hewitt ranked in the 3rd percentile (36.0). Hewitt allowed 37.8 yards per game, four touchdowns, and 8.1 yards per target, ranking in the 36th percentile with one target every 6.7 snaps in coverage. Burgess coughed up 49.1 yards per game, four touchdowns, and 8.1 yards per target, ranking in the 15th percentile as teams threw his way once every 5.7 snaps that he spent in coverage. The pair's average of 0.36 touchdowns allowed per game (eight over 22 combined games) is more than double that of Williamson's career average (0.17, 14 over 81). To wrap it up, it is obvious that Williamson is a far superior option to Burgess or Hewitt. Unless the Jets think his recovery has not gone well and that he is not quite the same player, the gap between Williamson and his likely replacements is too large to be worth $6.5 million in savings. Burgess and Hewitt are impending free agents, anyway. There is no guarantee they will be back with the Jets, and they could take up a significant portion of the space left vacant by Williamson. Burgess and Hewitt both proved they are solid backup options. Burgess is an excellent gap-shooter, while Hewitt is a good pass-rusher and special teams piece. By all means, they would be welcomed back to Florham Park. But should one of them be taking the starting job next to C.J. Mosley? Absolutely not. That belongs to Avery Williamson.