Analytics behind remaining free agents that make sense for Jets

Michael Nania breaks down the most intriguing potential Jets targets on the market from a statistical standpoint. [sc name="nanianumbers" ] Vinny Curry, EDGE While Curry is going to turn 32 years old in June, he is still capable of providing exactly what the Jets' defense is in dire need of — pass-rushing juice off the edge. Curry played a situational role for the Eagles this past season, logging just 24.4 snaps per game and rushing the passer on 16.2 of those. He thrived in that position, collecting 44 pressures over 260 pass-rush opportunities (including the playoffs). That gave him a pressure rate of 16.9%, which ranked sixth-best out of 101 qualified edge defenders. Matt Moore, QB The only quarterback on the Jets' roster not named Sam Darnold is Mike White, a 2018 fifth-round pick of the Cowboys who has yet to appear in a regular season game. Finding a trusty backup quarterback certainly needs to be a priority for the Jets. Over the six games that Darnold has missed in his career, the Jets have gone 0-6 while scoring 7.8 points per game on offense. Matt Moore has a solid resume of performance as a backup and a connection with Adam Gase. As a member of Gase's Dolphins in 2016, Moore took over for an injured Ryan Tannehill and led Miami to a 2-1 record over the final three weeks to push them into the playoffs. Moore tossed nine touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt that season (including his Wild Card start). Moore also started two games for Gase in 2017, although he was not as successful, going 0-2 as a starter with four touchdowns, five interceptions, 6.8 yards per attempt, and a 75.6 passer rating. In 2019, Moore took over for Patrick Mahomes when the future Super Bowl MVP went down with a knee injury. Moore went 1-1 as a starter and posted four touchdowns, no interceptions, 7.2 yards per attempt, and a 100.9 passer rating with the Chiefs. Moore owns a passer rating of 91.7 since 2016, which ranks 22nd among 60 quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts over that span. His touchdown pass rate of 5.2% ranks 12th, although his interception rate of 2.6% ranks 39th. He sits at 24th with 7.4 yards per attempt. Overall, Moore's career numbers are plenty solid for a backup. Over 55 appearances (regular season), Moore has thrown 49 touchdowns (4.6% rate - slightly above-average) and 36 interceptions (3.4% rate - well below-average), while averaging 7.1 yards per attempt (around average) and posting an 82.8 passer rating (slightly below average). He has gone 16-16 over 32 regular season starts. Everson Griffen, EDGE Griffen voided his contract to enter free agency, and announced that he would not be returning to the Vikings. Like Curry, Griffen is getting up there in football years as he just turned 32 in December, but the primary difference between the two is that Griffen still played the majority of defensive snaps in 2019. Griffen ranked 10th among edge defenders with 56.6 snaps per game in the regular season (849 over 15 games). He ranked fourth with 36.5 pass-rush snaps per game. Griffen remains one of the league's most productive rushers off the edge. He ranked 14th among edge defenders with 66 pressures in 2019, marking his fifth season out of six in which he ranked in the top-15. On the downside, Griffen was not quite elite on a per-snap basis in 2019. He ranked in 60th percentile when it came to pass-rush productivity (per-snap pressure rate with greater weight to sacks) — which is still plenty solid. Phillip Dorsett, WR Dorsett is coming off of a season in which he posted a career-high five touchdown receptions for the Patriots, but he was not efficient on the whole. He picked up only 17 first downs on 54 targets, a 31.4% rate (league average: 34.7%), while ranking in the 17th percentile among wide receivers with 1.09 yards per route run. Positively, Dorsett offers solid vertical ability. Possessing 4.33 forty-yard dash speed (2015 Combine), Dorsett averaged 11.0 air yards per reception in 2019, which ranked 20th among wide receivers. Four of his five touchdown receptions were from 25-plus yards out. Dorsett has also produced nicely with his small diet of rush attempts. Over 13 career carries (he has gotten at least one in each of his five seasons), Dorsett has picked up 84 yards (6.5 per attempt) and six first downs (46.2% rate). Breshad Perriman, WR Perriman has surprisingly lasted over a week on the open market after tearing up the league near the end of 2019. Over five games in the month of December, Perriman tied for the league lead with five receiving touchdowns and ranked third with 506 receiving yards (second among wide receivers, one yard behind DeVante Parker). It appears that teams were wise enough to avoid investing too heavily in Perriman after his breakout finish to the season. Perriman has played 51 games in the NFL since being taken in the first round of the 2015 Draft, and yet, each of his best four receiving yardage totals came during this past December. Five of his 11 career touchdowns (45.4%) and 506 of his 1,561 career yards (32.4%) were accumulated over a stretch that accounts for 9.8% of his career games. Now that we have reached the latter stage of free agency, Perriman has elevated from a risky gamble to a highly intriguing bargain option. If he could be had a one-year deal, Perriman would be a worthwhile roll of the dice.

Michael Nania breaks down the most intriguing potential Jets targets on the market from a statistical standpoint.

Vinny Curry, EDGE

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