New York Jets analytics-based 7-round mock draft (Vol. 1)

Michael Nania wields the power of advanced statistics to conduct a seven-round 2020 New York Jets mock draft. With under 20 days to go until the 2020 NFL Draft, we are officially in the heart of draft season. This will be the first of a few analytics-based Jets mock drafts I will be concocting. These mocks will be a bit different from anything else out there. I will be relying on the advanced stats to make each selection for the Jets across all seven rounds, going with the best player available according to the data (yes, team needs will be taken into account). These mocks are conducted using the Fanspeak Mock Draft Simulator. No trades are made. Keep in mind that these picks are not necessarily my personal preferences and are based almost entirely on statistics, so don't knock me too harshly! Round 1, Pick 11 Note: rankings are among players in all of college football (Divisions I, II, and III) unless otherwise noted The pick: WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma) Also considered: OT Mekhi Becton (Louisville) Key names off the board: OT Tristan Wirfs (#4, Giants), OT Jedrick Wills (#6, Chargers), OT Andrew Thomas (#7, Panthers), WR Jerry Jeudy (#8, Cardinals) Three of the top four tackles fly off the board prior to the Jets coming on the clock, in addition to stud wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. This boils it down to two plausible options for the Jets - Becton and Lamb. In reality, both I and the Jets would likely lean towards the greater need and go with Becton here, but from an analytics standpoint, Lamb is the more outstanding prospect. He racked up 1,325 receiving yards over just 332 receiving snaps in 2019, averaging an absolutely insane 3.99 yards per route run. That was tops in college football among 260 wide receivers with at least 300 receiving snaps. Obviously, college numbers cannot by any means be compared to the NFL. The games are vastly different in terms of pace, space, and style. However, just for comparison's sake, Michael Thomas led NFL wide receivers with 2.88 yards per route run in 2019. Lamb bested that mark by 38.5 percent. Again, that's an apples and oranges comparison, but it just goes to show how absurdly productive Lamb was for the Sooners. Lamb also averaged 21.4 yards per reception, best among the 134 FBS players with at least 50 receptions. Becton is an excellent prospect in his own right, but there is a bit more projection involved with him. He ranked in the 70th percentile among tackles in pass-blocking efficiency (per-snap pressure rate allowed with greater weight to sacks), allowing 12 pressures (six hurries, five hits, one sack) over 303 snaps in protection. That ranking is solid, but not quite as elite as Lamb's numbers are. In addition, Becton was aided by a Louisville offense that asked him to drop into only 73 "true pass sets," according to Pro Football Focus. That suggests Becton's numbers are likely ballooned by the easier blocking assignments afforded to him by a Cardinals offense that was heavy on play-action bootlegs and screen passes. While Becton would likely be the real-life pick here, Lamb offers a substantially better track record of production. Round 2, Pick 48 The pick: OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia) Also considered: OG Netane Muti (Fresno St.), OT Lucas Niang (TCU), C Cesar Ruiz (Michigan), C Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin) Key names off the board: OT Austin Jackson (#30, Packers), OT Prince Tega Wanogho (#40, Texans) After going with a wide receiver in round one, it feels almost essential to take an offensive lineman in round two. Wilson offers strong numbers in pass-protection. In 2019, he allowed just nine pressures (six hurries, two hits, one sack) over 333 snaps in protection, ranking in the 87th percentile among all tackles. He is a forceful presence in the run game, contributing to a Georgia offensive line that ranked 26th out of 130 FBS teams with an average of 2.78 adjusted line yards per carry (yards per rush attempt adjusted to properly assign credit to the offensive line). Round 3, Pick 68 The pick: WR Tyler Johnson (Minnesota) Also considered: OG Netane Muti (Fresno St.) Key names off the board: WR Michael Pittman Jr. (#56, Dolphins), WR K.J. Hamler (#57, Texans) OT Lucas Niang (#61, Titans), WR Bryan Edwards (#67, Lions) We continue stacking up support for Sam Darnold with another wide receiver selection. The advanced numbers love Johnson, who comes into the draft following his true senior season. He earned PFF's best receiving grade among all wide receivers in college football (92.2), a sign that he created a ton of plus-value through his ability to win one-on-one and make low-percentage catches. With 1,317 receiving yards on 367 receiving snaps, Johnson averaged 3.64 yards per route run, which ranked fifth among wide receivers with at least 300 receiving snaps (third-best in the FBS). Round 3, Pick 79 The pick: IOL Cesar Ruiz (Michigan) Also considered: IOL Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin) Key names off the board: OG Netane Muti (#69, Panthers) WR Van Jefferson (#74, Browns) I considered Muti in the second and third rounds, but he was taken by the Panthers with the very next pick following my selection of Johnson. Muti may be the most physically-gifted guard in the class, but injuries limited him to under 400 snaps over the last two seasons combined. Carolina swipes another offensive weapon from the Jets (in this reality, at least). Ruiz and Biadasz, two of the best centers in the draft, surprisingly fell to this point in the draft. While the Jets have Connor McGovern penciled-in at center, the Jets are simply desperate for offensive line talent, so we take a gamble on a player in Ruiz who is a good value for this spot even if a starter is already on the team at his preferred position. You can never have enough depth in a sport where injuries are aplenty. In addition, Ruiz started five games at right guard in his true freshman season for Michigan, so he has the experience to conceivably compete for a role there. In 2019, Ruiz allowed nine pressures (seven hurries, two hits, no sacks) over 455 snaps in protection, ranking in the 80th percentile among centers. He registered elite marks in the vertical jump (33 inches, 93rd percentile among all OL), forty-yard dash (5.08 seconds, 84th percentile), and 20-yard shuttle (4.64 seconds, 67th percentile), suggesting he could have the athleticism to thrive at guard. His 11-inch hands (96th percentile) are another plus tool, which could help him handle the increased number of one-on-one battles at guard. Round 4, Pick 120 The pick: EDGE Alton Robinson (Syracuse) Also considered: RB Anthony McFarland (Maryland), C Matt Hennessy (Temple) Key names off the board: C Nick Harris (#112, Chargers) Robinson collected 48 pressures in 2019, 25th-most among all edge defenders. He ranked at the 82nd percentile in pass-rush productivity (per-snap pressure rate with greater weight to sacks). While he had only four sacks in 2019, he flashed upper-echelon potential with 10 sacks in 2018. Round 5, Pick 158 The pick: CB Javaris Davis (Auburn) Davis allowed a passer rating of 70.0 into his coverage in 2019, good enough for the 78th percentile among cornerbacks. He allowed two touchdowns, two interceptions, and a stingy average of just 5.7 yards per target, adding in four pass deflections. He enters the draft following his redshirt senior season for the Tigers, appearing regularly on the defensive side over 43 games throughout four seasons. Round 6, Pick 191 The pick: RB Javon Leake (Maryland) Leake forced 32 missed tackles over 103 rush attempts, an average of 0.31 per carry that ranked 22nd among all running backs (91st percentile). His average of 4.9 yards after contact per rush attempt ranked fourth-best, pushing him to an astounding rate of 7.0 yards per carry that placed 16th. For his career, Leake averaged 7.9 yards per rush attempt and scored 17 rushing touchdowns on only 145 carries, an unreal rate of 11.7 percent. Aaron Jones led NFL running backs with a 6.8 percent rushing touchdown rate in 2019 (16 touchdowns on 236 carries). On the downside, Leake was never a regular starter for the Terrapins, toting the ball more than 11 times in a game just once, and he hardly offers any passing game value with just 10 career receptions for 59 yards and no touchdowns. However, his eye-popping efficiency numbers as a rusher make him an intriguing Day 3 prospect. Round 6, Pick 211 The pick: OT Jon Runyan (Michigan) Also considered: OT Colton McKivitz (West Virginia) Runyan allowed 16 pressures (13 hurries, 1 hit, 2 sacks) over 382 snaps in protection for the Wolverines, ranking at the 63rd percentile in pass-blocking efficiency. His father, Jon, played offensive tackle in the NFL from 1996-2009 with the Oilers/Titans, Eagles, and Chargers. McKivitz ranked at the 85th percentile in pass-blocking efficiency, but he played in a West Virginia offense that is highly favorable for juicing up pass-protection numbers.