Calculating NFL Draft bust rates for each position – first round

Michael Nania analyzes the success rates of each offensive and defensive position in the first round of the NFL Draft. As Joe Douglas and the Jets ponder over positional value in preparation for the Draft, it is interesting to look back at the past and examine which positions have yielded the most value at each point of the draft. Today, we start with the first round. I charted the career production of each first round pick from 2010-19 (319 players) to get a sense of how successful draft picks at each position have turned out to be. Various measures are included with each position, as well as their rank in those measures among all positions, but I decided to rank the groups according to their cumulative "primary starter rate" - the ratio of total seasons accumulated as a team's primary starter out of possible seasons (all seasons that have passed since a player was drafted). Which position has proven to be the least fruitful investment during the first round? Let's start with the most successful positions and work our way towards the worst of the bunch. #13 - Center (77.4% primary starter rate) Picks: 7 Possible seasons: 31 Seasons as primary starter: 24 (77.4% - 1st) Approximate value: 202 (6.52 per season - 2nd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 3 (9.7% - 3rd) Pro Bowl seasons: 14 (45.2% - 1st) First-Team All-Pro players: 2 (28.6% - 2nd) Pro Bowl players: 3 (42.9% - 3rd) Center takes the cake as the most efficient first round position of the 2010s, as its small sample of seven selections has been largely successful. Maurkice Pouncey (#18, 2010, Pittsburgh) and Travis Frederick (#31, 2013, Dallas) make up 13 of the group's 14 Pro Bowls, with eight and five, respectively. Ryan Kelly (#18, 2016, Indianapolis) and Frank Ragnow (#20, 2018, Detroit) have been solid starters. Since centers are not valued quite as highly as other positions on the offensive line, not many are taken in the first round. Because of that lesser emphasis, it stands to reason that if a center warrants a first round pick, it is probably because he is an extremely unique talent. Only the best centers get taken this high, whereas at other positions, teams will reach on players who do not have first round-caliber talent in order to fill a need. #12 - Offensive tackle (75.6% primary starter rate) Picks: 38 Possible seasons: 225 Seasons as primary starter: 170 (75.6% - 2nd) Approximate value (explanation): 1,278 (5.68 per season - 3rd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 6 (2.7% - 11th) Pro Bowl seasons: 14 (14.2% - 11th) First-Team All-Pro players: 5 (13.2% - 9th) Pro Bowl players: 12 (31.6% - 10th) The position that is the heavy favorite to be Joe Douglas' first choice as the head honcho in New York also happens to be one of the best bets in the first round. Teams have emphasized offensive tackle heavily in the first round, taking 38 in the 2010s decade. That tied it with cornerback for the second-most of any position (behind defensive end). While the position has not produced an amazing rate of All-Pros or Pro Bowlers, tackles have been much more likely to become starters than the other highly-valued positions in the first round. None of the other five positions with 30-plus first round selections in the 2010s were able to crack a primary starter rate higher than 66.7 percent, which the offensive tackle position comfortably surpassed at 75.6 percent. The measly All-Pro and Pro Bowl numbers are somewhat misleading, as many star players have been snubbed of those titles. First round hits such as Trent Williams, Russell Okung, Bryan Bulaga, and Anthony Castonzo have never been named a First-Team All-Pro despite each logging plenty of seasons as elite-level starters. Neither Bulaga nor Castonzo has even made a Pro Bowl, which is a travesty. If the Jets do what they should do and draft a tackle at #11 (if they are lucky enough to have one of the top-four prospects available), the odds are in their favor. #11 - Safety (71.2% primary starter rate) Picks: 22 Possible seasons: 111 Seasons as primary starter: 79 (71.2% - 3rd) Approximate value: 540 (4.86 per season - 10th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 10 (9.0% - 4th) Pro Bowl seasons: 24 (21.6% - 4th) First-Team All-Pro players: 6 (27.3% - 3rd) Pro Bowl players: 9 (40.9% - 4th) The safety position scores poorly in approximate value, but that is mostly due to the fact that Pro-Football-Reference's Approximate Value does not see the safety position as all that important. Whether or not you think a safety is worthy of a first round pick is one debate (stars like Jamal Adams, Earl Thomas, and Harrison Smith undoubtedly are), but the position has been a good bet to give teams a starter at the least. It has yielded the best primary starter rate among defensive positions in the first round while at the same time boasting a strong rate of star production. One thing is almost for certain - the Jets will not have to think about drafting a safety in round one for a long time with Adams and Marcus Maye around. Of the 60 defensive backs (safeties and cornerbacks) taken in the first round since 2010, Adams owns the fifth-best career average of AV per season (9.33), trailing only Patrick Peterson (9.44), Tre'Davious White (9.66), Marcus Peters (10.40), and Minkah Fitzpatrick (11.50). Adams could be the top safety of the crop by next season - Fitzpatrick was lucky to record a few touchdowns and takeaways in 2019 that ballooned his overall numbers, and is likely to regress towards the mean in 2020. AV aside, Adams is certainly the better overall player and has a stronger argument than anybody for the title of "best safety in the league." With Adams playing alongside a solid running-mate in Maye, Jets should not have to worry about this position for a long time. #10 - Edge linebacker (70.2% primary starter rate) Picks: 10 Possible seasons: 47 Seasons as primary starter: 33 (70.2% - 4th) Approximate value: 335 (7.13 per season - 1st) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 8 (17.0% - 1st) Pro Bowl seasons: 18 (38.3% - 2nd) First-Team All-Pro players: 4 (40.0% - 1st) Pro Bowl players: 6 (60.0% - 1st) It was tough to slice apart the linebacker group. I decided to split them into groups: off-ball linebackers and "edge linebackers." As I classified it, "edge linebackers" are players like Von Miller and Khalil Mack. They are sized like linebackers and thus labeled as such, but their primary responsibilities are rushing off the edge, so they should not be grouped with players like Luke Kuechly and C.J. Mosley. They also cannot be labeled as defensive ends due to the large gap in size and the fact that they drop into coverage more often than a true defensive end would. This small group of players put up tremendous numbers on the strength of the aforementioned two players. Mack and Miller have earned three First-Team All-Pro nods apiece, and a combined 13 Pro Bowls (eight for Miller, five for Mack). T.J. Watt is a superstar, while Dee Ford has been excellent when healthy. Vic Beasley, Bud Dupree, and Dante Fowler have been mixed bags, while Leonard Floyd and Charles Harris have been disappointments. Josh Allen had a nice rookie season for the Jaguars. #9 - Guard (69.3% primary starter rate) Picks: 15 Possible seasons: 88 Seasons as primary starter: 61 (69.3% - 4th) Approximate value: 462 (5.25 per season - 7th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 9 (10.2% - 2nd) Pro Bowl seasons: 24 (27.3% - 3rd) First-Team All-Pro players: 4 (26.7% - 4th) Pro Bowl players: 6 (40.0% - 5th) Guard is in a similar boat as center when it comes to the first round. It has not been selected often, but the results have been good when it has, for the same reasons as the center position. If a guard warrants a first round selection in spite of the position's perceived lesser value, he is probably a gifted prospect. Zack Martin (#16, 2014, Dallas), David DeCastro (#24, 2012, Pittsburgh), and Quenton Nelson (#6, 2018, Indianapolis) are the headliners. There have been busts who drag the group down a bit. Danny Watkins (2011, #23, Philadelphia) and Joshua Garnett (2016, #28, San Francisco) each logged just one season as a primary starter and are no longer active. #8 - Defensive tackle (66.7% primary starter rate) Picks: 34 Possible seasons: 192 Seasons as primary starter: 128 (66.7% - 6th) Approximate value: 1,039 (5.41 per season - 5th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 11 (5.7% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 29 (15.1% - 9th) First-Team All-Pro players: 5 (14.7% - 8th) Pro Bowl players: 9 (26.5% - 12th) Defensive tackles in the first round have been steady but unspectacular. While the starter rate is solid, stars have been hard to come by. The position is tied with wide receiver for the lowest percentage of picks that have made at least one Pro Bowl. If you took Aaron Donald out of the picture, who has gone six-for-six in Pro Bowl selections and five-for-six in First-Team All-Pro selections, defensive tackles would have the second-worst per-season Pro Bowl rate (12.3%) and fourth-worst All-Pro rate (3.2%). The high-points have been special, however. Jets stars Sheldon Richardson (2013, #13) and Muhammad Wilkerson (2011, #30) came out of the first, as have All-Pros Ndamukong Suh, Fletcher Cox, Gerald McCoy, and Marcell Dareus. Will Quinnen Williams find his way into that tier? Or, will he become what most first round defensive tackles have - just a nice starter? #7 - Off-ball linebacker (60.0% primary starter rate) Picks: 24 Possible seasons: 115 Seasons as primary starter: 69 (60.0% - 7th) Approximate value: 611 (5.31 per season - 6th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 5 (4.3% - 9th) Pro Bowl seasons: 21 (18.3% - 7th) First-Team All-Pro players: 1 (4.2% - 12th) Pro Bowl players: 7 (29.2% - 11th) Superstars have been sparse at off-ball linebacker, but the top of the totem pole is especially good, bailing out the lackluster bottom portion to make the position look like a reliable bet overall. Luke Keuchy is responsible for all five of the group's First-Team All-Pro selections. C.J. Mosley and Anthony Barr follow up Kuechly's seven Pro Bowls with four apiece. Dont'a Hightower (2012, #25, New England) is a strong player. Twenty-eighteen picks Tremaine Edmunds (#16, Buffalo) and Leighton Vander Esch (#19, Dallas) are budding stars. Players like Reuben Foster (2017, #17, San Francisco), Darron Lee (2016, #20, Jets), and Stephone Anthony (2015, #31, New Orleans) are some of the recent busts. #6 - Cornerback (58.4% primary starter rate) Picks: 38 Possible seasons: 221 Seasons as primary starter: 129 (58.4% - 8th) Approximate value: 970 (4.39 per season - 12th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 12 (5.4% - 7th) Pro Bowl seasons: 35 (15.8% - 8th) First-Team All-Pro players: 8 (21.1% - 6th) Pro Bowl players: 15 (39.5% - 7th) Star cornerbacks have come out of the first round at cornerback at a decent rate, highlighted by players such as Patrick Peterson, Marcus Peters, Stephon Gilmore, Tre'Davious White, Xavier Rhodes, and Jalen Ramsey. The position is dragged down by just how awful the busts have been. Vernon Hargreaves, Kevin Johnson, Justin Gilbert, Darqueze Dennard, D.J. Hayden, Darqueze Dennard, and infamous Jets Dee Milliner and Kyle Wilson have combined for four seasons as primary starters over 49 possible seasons - a horrendous rate of 8.2 percent! Going with a cornerback has certainly been boom-or-bust. #5 - Tight end (58.3% primary starter rate) Picks: 9 Possible seasons: 36 Seasons as primary starter: 21 (58.3% - 9th) Approximate value: 114 (3.17 per season - 13th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 13th) Pro Bowl seasons: 4 (11.1% - 13th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 13th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (33.3% - 9th) Jermaine Gresham carries this group, starting for nine seasons out of 10 possible. If you take him out of the picture, the other eight tight ends have been primary starters for 12 out of 26 possible seasons, a 46.2 percent rate that would be the worst of any position. Even with Gresham, tight end is still the worst position at producing stars, failing to yield a First-Team All-Pro and amassing a first round-worst 11.1 percent Pro Bowl rate. Gresham made two Pro Bowls, while Eric Ebron and Tyler Eifert added two apiece. Neither player has done much of anything outside of their one season in the spotlight. #4 - Defensive end (56.3% primary starter rate) Picks: 42 Possible seasons: 252 Seasons as primary starter: 142 (56.3% - 10th) Approximate value: 1,267 (5.03 per season - 9th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 13 (5.2% - 8th) Pro Bowl seasons: 38 (15.1% - 10th) First-Team All-Pro players: 7 (16.7% - 7th) Pro Bowl players: 16 (38.1% - 8th) The most commonly-selected position in the first round, defensive end has been a below-average bet across the board. It joins cornerback as one of the greater boom-or-bust spots. J.J. Watt, Chandler Jones, Cameron Heyward, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, and Nick Bosa are outstanding players. Jadeveon Clowney, Jason Pierre-Paul, Robert Quinn, Brandon Graham, DeForest Buckner, Jerry Hughes, and Melvin Ingram are all very good. The misses - such as 2012 Jets bust Quinton Coples and 2013 Dolphins whiff Dion Jordan - have been bad enough to drag the position down despite a long list of home run picks. #3 - Running back (53.3% primary starter rate) Picks: 16 Possible seasons: 90 Seasons as primary starter: 48 (53.3% - 11th) Approximate value: 457 (5.08 per season - 8th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 5 (5.6% - 6th) Pro Bowl seasons: 17 (18.9% - 5th) First-Team All-Pro players: 4 (25.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 9 (56.3% - 2nd) The book on running backs in the first round is that players have generally had excellent starts to their careers and quickly slowed down. A high percentage of them have ridden their pedigree and talent to early success while failing to maintain it, with C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Doug Martin, and Trent Richardson as prime examples. Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon's peaks were much higher than those players, but they may be headed towards a quick decline as well. This explains the excellent Pro Bowl rate despite the lackluster starter and AV rates. Mathews, Spiller, and Martin have each made Pro Bowls, but none have provided value deep into their careers, a path that Gurley and Gordon may be going down. David Wilson and Jahvid Best are busts that cut into the numbers as well. Ezekiel Elliott and Christian McCaffrey are the only no-doubt-about-it home runs of the bunch. The jury is still out on Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley - not regarding whether they are talented enough to be studs, but whether they can provide the mass of value that is required to be worth a top-10 pick. Josh Jacobs had a rookie year that suggests he could join Elliott and McCaffrey. #2 - Wide receiver (49.7% primary starter rate) Picks: 34 Possible seasons: 191 Seasons as primary starter: 95 (49.7% - 12th) Approximate value: 902 (4.72 per season - 11th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 9 (3.1% - 10th) Pro Bowl seasons: 35 (18.3% - 6th) First-Team All-Pro players: 3 (8.8% - 11th) Pro Bowl players: 8 (23.5% - 13th) Wide receiver was a flat-out bad position to take in the first round throughout the 2010s. As you can tell by the difference between the position's per-season Pro Bowl rate (sixth-best) and total Pro Bowl rate (worst), a small handful of players from the early part of the decade carried the entire group. Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham have each made at least three Pro Bowls. None of the other 26 players have made a single one. The aforementioned eight players are also the top eight of the bunch in career receiving yards per game. Fourteen of the other 26 (53.8%) own a career average of fewer than 40 yards per game, which is about equal to the number that would rank 64th among wide receivers in 2019 (caliber of a bottom-tier No. 2 option/high-end No. 3). The benchmark for top-32 is about 60 yards per game. Just three of the other 26 (11.5%) own a career average of at least 60 yards per game, and one of them is Justin Blackmon, who only played 20 games in the league. Seven of those eight Pro Bowlers were drafted from 2010-14. Things got ugly in the latter half of the decade. The 17 wide receivers drafted since 2015 have posted an average of 460.7 receiving yards and 3.0 receiving touchdowns per season. Cooper and D.J. Moore are the only ones averaging over 60 yards per game out of that bunch. Calvin Ridley deserves an honorably mention for his 1,687 yards and 17 touchdowns over two seasons. Major whiffs Kevin White, Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, and John Ross are the top offenders. Two current Jets - Josh Doctson (2016, #22, Washington) and Breshad Perriman (2015, #26, Baltimore) - were huge busts for their respective teams. Even the "good" picks, such as Corey Coleman and Mike Williams (#5 and #7, respectively, in 2017), have not been quite as dominant as you would hope a wide receiver taken in the top-10 would be. The stark difference between these odds at wide receiver and offensive tackle should be further evidence as to why the former is the correct direction for the Jets. It will be interesting to see if this stacked wide receiver class can turn the tide for a position that has produced busts like no tomorrow in the first round over the past five years. #1 - Quarterback (49.0% primary starter rate) Picks: 30 Possible seasons: 157 Seasons as primary starter: 77 (49.0% - 13th) Approximate value: 883 (5.62 per season - 4th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 3 (1.9% - 12th) Pro Bowl seasons: 20 (12.7% - 12th) First-Team All-Pro players: 3 (10.0% - 10th) Pro Bowl players: 12 (40.0% - 5th) The quarterback position lives up to its reputation as the hardest position to get right. While the AV average is high, that is only because quarterbacks naturally accumulate more value due to their increased importance. Teams had a harder time finding starters (and stars) at quarterback in round one than any other position throughout the 2010s. Busts like Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel, Johnny Manziel, and Paxton Lynch were aplenty throughout the 2010s. Even in the first round, it is tough to nail down the most important position in sports. Here's to Sam Darnold helping these numbers take a major turn for the better over the next few years. To wrap it all up, here are all of the numbers in one look.