Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson could be an ideal New York Jets combination
If one New York Jets player was robbed in 2023, it was Garrett Wilson.
The Offensive Rookie of the Year, who posted 83 catches, 1,103 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns with four different quarterbacks, had the opportunity to show what he could do with a Hall of Fame passer. Wilson was one of the most coveted fantasy receivers. Many expected him to post 1,500 or more receiving yards.
Then, Aaron Rodgers went down, and Wilson had to deal with even more of a slog than as a rookie. The result was a decrease in yardage, touchdowns, yards per reception, and yards per route run.
Wilson faced double coverage at the highest rate of any receiver in the NFL. There were also many inexplicable plays in which Wilson created separation but was somehow not the primary read or not part of the progression altogether.
With Rodgers’ return, expectations surrounding Wilson are once again high. He is the WR7 in PPR leagues with an ADP of 11. Pro Football Focus and ESPN listed him as a borderline top-10 receiver in the NFL and the ninth-best player under 25 in the league.
One of the primary reasons the Rodgers-to-Wilson connection could be so lethal is a particular strength both players have demonstrated: production in the intermediate (10-19 yard) range of the field.
From 2016-22, Rodgers ranked in the top eight among quarterbacks in yards per attempt in the intermediate range in all but one season (2019). That includes 2022, his supposed down year when he ranked eighth with 10.8 YPA.
That is the primary strength of Wilson’s game. His target rate from 10-19 yards decreased from 36% to 27% from 2022 to 2023. Still, he ranked 4th in yards per reception in that range in 2022 (19.9) and 10th in 2023 (19.1). That was despite ranking 50th in average depth of target in that range from both years. Wilson’s key strength in this range was YAC: he ranked 6th in 2022 (6.2 YAC per reception) and 9th in 2023 (5.7).
It’s fair to say that the decrease in Wilson’s target rate at the intermediate level may have promoted his reduced statistics in 2023. His short targets increased from 39.6% to 49.7%, on which he averaged just 2.1 and 2.9 YAC per reception in his two seasons. Throwing the ball to him in the short area of the field so frequently failed to utilize his YAC ability.
The biggest display of Wilson’s intermediate excellence was during his play with a healthy Mike White. From Weeks 12-14 in 2022, Wilson led all receivers in intermediate targets (16), receptions (11), yards (240), and touchdowns (2), and he ranked third in yards per reception (21.8) and YAC per reception (8.8). He also caught 3 of 5 contested targets in that range.
It’s not that Rodgers won’t target Wilson in the short area of the field. Davante Adams’ short target rate from 2018-21 ranged from 46.3% to 54.1%. However, with Wilson’s strengths in the intermediate area, the quarterback-receiver duo could cause tremendous damage there.
Here are some examples of Wilson’s intermediate area strength.
Look for Wilson to get more of these opportunities in 2024. It could vault him into the conversation as a top-five receiver in the NFL.
