Breaking down Quinnen Williams’ pass-rush production | Part 2

Michael Nania goes beyond the simplicity of the box scores to break down Quinnen Williams' strengths and weaknesses as a pass-rusher in 2019, taking a look at games 4-6. Quinnen Williams' rookie season was respectable, but he did underwhelm with a lack of eye-popping plays in the passing game. As the third overall pick and largely hailed as the draft's most talented player, the expectation was for him to come right in and dominate. He failed to do that. However, at 22 years old with only two years of starting experience across both college and the NFL, Williams' story is far from complete. He has plenty of time to fulfill his massive potential. Rather than giving up on Williams and endlessly complaining about his sack totals (an incredibly simplistic stat that does not come close to capturing a player's overall impact), what we should be doing is analyzing the pluses and minuses of his game to understand where he is as a player and how he can take the next step. I wanted to give Williams' pass-rushing game the in-depth look that it deserves. Was he truly a liability, or were there hidden-impact plays that flew under the radar on live television? What were his strengths and weaknesses in terms of move type, alignment, and matchup? To answer these questions, I set out to re-watch all of Williams' pass-rushing reps throughout the season, charting a few details for each one to locate trends and impact that flew by the naked eye. Today, we get into games 4-6 of Williams' rookie season. Check out the breakdown of Williams' first three games here. Here are a few things to know before we get into the numbers behind Williams' games against New England, Jacksonville, and Miami. Production by move type These are the five varieties of moves that I divided Williams' rushes into. Power: Williams' initial move is directed straight into the opponent's chest with the intent to win through strength. Bull-rush, long-arm are examples. Inside: Williams attempts to beat his man to the inside with a rip, spin, swipe, swim/arm-over, etc. Outside: Williams attempts to beat his man to the outside with a rip, spin, swipe, swim/arm-over, etc. Stunt penetrator: Williams' assignment is to crash down and absorb blockers to open up a clear lane into the pocket for a teammate. Stunt looper: Williams' assignment is to sell his rush in one direction and then change his course to take advantage of the lane created by a teammate. Production by alignment I charted Williams' rushes according to his alignment across the line of scrimmage. Here is a look at the positions used (known as "techniques," as in "3-technique"). Production by matchup I charted Williams' rushes according to the position of the offensive player that he competed against. If he was a stunt penetrator, I assigned his matchup as the player who he most needed to absorb in order to open up a lane. What was charted? Pass rush snaps: Number of times Williams rushed the passer. Excludes screens, bootlegs, sprint-outs, or any type of play in which Williams did not get the chance to truly engage with an opponent. I have listed the number of rushes that were discounted in each game. Hits: Williams does not sack the quarterback, but knocks him to the ground. Hurries: Williams does not sack or knock down the quarterback, but he bears down on the quarterback to force an awkward change in his throwing mechanics, a premature release, scramble, etc. Wins: This stat is the crux of the study, aiming to solely capture Williams' ability to get his job done. There are many examples of good reps that go for naught. A victorious rush could end up not amounting to anything because of a quick release by the quarterback. The rusher could be on his way to a sack until he is forced to stop and put his hands up to block the throwing lane. When a player clears an opening as a stunt penetrator, he may not have gotten to the quarterback himself, but he created the opportunity for somebody else to. Those are just a few of many ways that a defender can record a great rush and not get rewarded with statistical credit that recognizes his effort. The "wins" stat accounts for such issues by looking only at Williams' assignment and nothing else. Generally, I considered a "win" any instance in which Williams beat a blocker to set himself or a teammate en route to the QB's initial set point within a reasonable amount of time (about 2.5 seconds from snap to win). That's just a rough outline, though - it's a subjective stat. Every play is different from the next and I altered my criteria as such. My primary goal was to simply identify Williams' job and credit him with a win if he got it done effectively. Keep in mind that if a pressure is recorded (hurries/hits/sacks), a win will be logged on that play as well. This is a stat I created myself and have only used for analyzing Williams, so we do not know how his win rates would compare against the average defensive lineman or whether they are good or bad. The main purpose of the study is to compare Williams against himself, visualizing his best and worst splits in addition to his progress throughout the season. Let's dive in. Games 4-6 In this piece, we will be looking at Williams' games against the Patriots, Jaguars, and Dolphins from Weeks 7-9. Here is a look at Williams' production over those three games. Here are the numbers broken down by move type. Williams did not quite maintain his destructive stunt penetration from the Cowboys game, but he remained effective there. As a one-on-one rusher, the power game is still Williams' bread-and-butter at this point. He has special strength that can overwhelm opponents when he hits his target, but rarely won with finesse early on. Here are the numbers broken down by alignment. Williams began to see some more time at the 5-technique spot over this stretch after rarely appearing there early on, and he was successful in the role with five wins over 11 rushes. Here are the numbers broken down by matchup. After primarily lining up on the left and battling right guards over his first three games, Williams started to see more time on the right side against left guards over this stretch. Clearly, the Jets had a lot of confidence in Williams' ability to immediately step in and line up on either side of the line at various positions. Week 7 vs. New England Rushes: 18 (6 reps excluded) Wins: 4 (22.2%) Pressures: 2 (2 hurries) Move type: 5 stunt penetrator (2 wins), 4 power (1 hurry), 4 inside, 4 outside (1 hurry), 1 stunt looper Alignment: 6 as 4i-tech (1 hurry), 5 as 2i-tech, 3 as 1-tech (1 hurry), 2 as 3-tech (1 win), 2 as 5-tech (1 win) Matchup: 9 vs. RG (1 win, 1 hurry), 5 vs. LG (1 hurry), 2 vs. C, 2 vs. RT (1 win) Williams had a rough time with New England's interior trio of Joe Thuney (left guard), Ted Karras (center) and Shaq Mason (right guard). Aside from one hurry that was largely due to a miscommunication by New England's offensive line, Williams could only muster up one win over his other 10 non-stunt rushes against the trio. On this play (Tom Brady's first dropback of the game), Williams lines up at the 4i-technique. He comes at Mason (right guard) for a bull-rush, but leans into it far too much. Mason uses Williams' momentum to pancake him into the turf. Williams' lone one-on-one win did come against the elite Thuney. Williams lines up at the 4i spot and bulls Thuney straight into Brady's lap. Brady is forced to shift outside and attempt a difficult throw from outside of the pocket (which he does complete). Williams crashes down on this play to open a clear lane for Leonard Williams to bear down on Brady, forcing an intentional grounding call on third down. Week 8 at Jacksonville Rushes: 22 (5 reps excluded) Wins: 4 (18.2%) Pressures: 0 Move type: 7 power (3 wins), 6 outside, 6 stunt penetrator, 2 inside, 1 stunt looper (1 win) Alignment: 8 as 5-tech (3 wins), 5 as 3-tech 3 as 4i-tech, 3 as 1-tech (1 win), 2 as 4-tech, 1 as 9-tech Matchup: 8 vs. RT (2 wins), 5 vs. LG (1 win), 4 vs. RG (1 win), 4 vs. C, 1 vs. LT In Jacksonville, Williams got his first extended action at defensive end. He recorded eight rush snaps as a 5-technique after playing just three over his first four games. Williams flashed the ability to make things happen with a full head of steam from the outside. Here, Williams gets his hands beneath the right tackle's armpits and lifts him off his feet with a forklift/bull. Within about 2.3 seconds, Williams is already off of the block with a clear lane on Gardner Minshew's initial set point, but Minshew had already left the pocket due to James Burgess' blitz. Great rush by Williams that could have been a sack in many situations. The average time from snap to release in the NFL is generally somewhere from 2.5-2.6 seconds. The average time from snap to sack? Usually about 3.5 seconds. That is an eternity in the game of football. A lot of things need to happen for a rusher to get that extra second or more that he needs to convert his win into a sack - good coverage, a well-set edge to contain the quarterback, an unaware quarterback, simply being in the right place at the right time for the quarterback to scramble into your arms, etc. - we cannot judge players by their sack totals simply because they have little control over how many they get. Williams beat his man cleanly enough there to position himself for a sack. He didn't get one because of factors beyond his control. Here is another rush from the 5-technique spot that was good enough for a sack. Williams crashes inside and bulls the right guard, using his outside arm to club the guard's outside shoulder, moving him inside and creating a lane to the outside. Williams brings his inside arm over and rips underneath the guard's outside arm to set himself on a course for Minshew. This could have easily been a sack or knockdown for Quinnen, but Leonard Williams simply beat him to the punch. Week 9 at Miami Rushes: 21 (10 reps excluded) Wins: 6 (28.6%) Pressures: 0 Move type: 6 power (2 wins), 5 inside (1 win), 5 outside (1 win), 4 stunt penetrator (2 wins), 1 stunt looper Alignment: 7 as 3-tech, 5 as 4i-tech (2 wins), 4 as 2i-tech, 2 as 1-tech (2 wins), 1 as 2-tech (1 win), 1 as 4-tech, 1 as 5-tech (1 win) Matchup: 16 vs. LG (5 wins), 3 vs. C (1 win), 1 vs. LT, 1 vs. RB The Dolphins were getting the ball out extremely quickly against the Jets, which is why I discounted 10 of Williams' 31 reps in the passing game. Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged an instantaneous 2.20 seconds from snap-to-release, second-quickest of the week (Denver's Brandon Allen, 2.18). In addition to the many screen passes called, Fitzpatrick would often throw as soon as he hit the depth of his drop. Williams primarily battled against rookie left guard Michael Deiter, battling him on 16 of his 21 rushes. It was a new role for Williams, who matched up with the left guard on just 19.0% of his rushes over his first five games. Williams had a few moments where he was able to win quickly enough to set himself on an apparent path to Fitzpatrick even if the ball was out fast. Here, Williams is the 2-technique over the left guard (Deiter). Williams pulls Deiter down and swims over top towards the inside. The center picks him up, but Williams still probably would have hit or sacked Fitzpatrick with just one more split-second to get home. Fitzpatrick released this one in about 2.34 seconds. Williams was back to his old tricks in the stunt penetration game after going 0-for-6 against Jacksonville. As the 1-technique here, Williams crashes directly into the A-gap and takes the center with him towards the right side of the line. Williams subtly grabs the center's jersey and locks arms with him to prevent him from peeling off. A huge lane is created for Tarell Basham to loop through the other A-gap. Basham trips, but he forces Fitzpatrick to scramble, and Jordan Jenkins cleans up the sack. It's all thanks to Williams. Here is a look at Williams' production over his first six games with the Jets. By move type: By alignment: By matchup: