What will New York Jets OT Mekhi Becton’s rookie-year stats look like?

Will New York Jets rookie offensive tackle Mekhi Becton be able to make a positive impact in his debut season? There is no denying Mekhi Becton's raw ability. The man moves in ways that a six-foot-seven, 364-pounder should not be able to. His potential is limitless. The pressing question surrounding Becton in regards to the Jets' 2020 season is this: What will he provide as a rookie? Joe Douglas' Jets are in a pivotal position. They must give Sam Darnold the support system he needs in order to fulfill his potential, and are also running out of time to take advantage of the last two inexpensive years of Darnold's inexpensive rookie contract. More so than anything else, it is the offensive line's performance that will dictate whether or not the Jets can accomplish those goals. And, in 2020, Becton's performance will be the most critical element in determining the offensive line's overall output. Only one surefire immediate upgrade was added - center Connor McGovern - so if the 2020 Jets offensive line is going to improve upon its awfulness of a year ago, Becton has to be a driving force. It is tough to picture a scenario in which the 2020 offensive line succeeds without Becton hitting the ground running. Even tougher is picturing a scenario in which the team as a whole succeeds without the offensive line playing well. In short - Becton may be the single most important X-factor on the New York Jets in 2020. No pressure, rookie. Of course, none of this is to stay that Becton's career hinges on 2020. The Jets will give him plenty of time to come into his own, and if it takes him a few years to become a decade-long star, that is perfectly fine. He is simply in the unique position of being one of the team's major determinants from the very beginning. What should we realistically expect from Becton this year? To answer that question, I looked back at the rookie-year performances of 24 offensive tackles (that got ample playing time) selected in the top-15 since 2006, which is the first season that offensive line statistics are available. Let's jump into it. Here is what recent history tells us to expect from Becton in 2020. Run blocking In the run game, I took a look at each player's PFF run blocking grade and their percentile rank among tackles with 500+ snaps that season. If a player had fewer than 500 total snaps, his ranking is among all linemen who played at least the same number of snaps. Of course, PFF grades are subjective, but at this point in history, we cannot do any better when it comes to individual offensive line statistics. It's our best available tool for comparing linemen. Here is how the rookies fared in the run game. The results paint a very interesting array of possibilities for Becton. Altogether, the group's average percentile ranking in PFF's run blocking grade was a mediocre 45.3, but the results were highly boom-or-bust. Of the 24 players, only four landed in the 40-to-70 range. Seven of them (29.2%) graded above the 70th percentile, while 13 of them (54.2%) graded below the 40th percentile. The run game is clearly Becton's better phase as he comes into the league. He appears capable of contributing effectively in that area as a rookie and could make a humongous impact there for years to come. All rookies (at any position) should be expected to go through a growth curve, but the small possibility of immediate stardom always exists. Based on the above results, there is a realistic chance that Becton's dominance as a run blocker could begin right away, especially considering his special gifts in this facet. Top-11 picks Mike McGlinchey, Taylor Lewan, Tyron Smith, Lane Johnson, Jake Long, and Joe Thomas were instant stars in the run game - one-quarter of the above group. Perhaps Becton will join them. If Becton starts out slowly as a run blocker - which history says is the much more likely outcome - all hope is not lost. On the above list, players like Ryan Clady, Ronnie Stanley, Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Jake Matthews, and New York's own D'Brickashaw Ferguson all became studs in the run game after a poor rookie season. Pass blocking In the pass game, we will take a look at each player's PFF pass blocking grade and allowed pressure rate. Here is how the group fared. Highly-drafted rookies have had a tougher time coming out strong in the pass game than they have in the run game. The group's average percentile ranking between pass blocking grade and allowed pressure rate was just 41.2. More than half of the group's members (14-of-24) ranked below the 30th percentile in pass blocking grade. Becton has all of the tools to become a great pass protector, but he has more room for technical refinement in that department than he does in the run game. Based on the above data and Becton's skill-set, it seems like there is a good chance he is going to go through some growing pains as a protector, which could hurt the Jets quite a bit in the short-term. Just as in the run game, a bad start in protection does not guarantee a bad career, but it is a bit more daunting to start out slow in this phase. Only four of the 15 (26.7%) below-average rookie-year pass protectors seen above have since gone on to achieve consistent stardom in the passing game (Ferguson, Johnson, Matthews, and Williams). Comparatively, six of the 13 (46.1%) below-average rookie-year run blockers went on to become great in that phase. Overall Here is how the group fared when it came to overall PFF grade. The group's average percentile rank in overall PFF grade was 41.8. A whopping seven of them (29.2%) ranked in the bottom-10%, but six (25.0%) ranked in the top-25%. Ultimately, while the baseline expectation for Becton in 2020 should be slightly below league-average play, the above group largely tended to perform either great or awful. There was not a ton of middle ground. It seems likely that, in 2020, Becton will either be a good-to-great starter or grind through a typical rookie season filled with a few ups and plenty of downs. Landing somewhere from the 40th to the 60th percentile in overall PFF grade would make him a significant outlier - only three (12.5%) of the players on the above list were in that middle-20% range. Nine players (37.5%) ranked in the top-60% while 12 players (50.0%) ranked in the bottom-40%. If Becton lands on the positive side, the Jets should have a great chance of fielding a solid offense on the strength of massive improvement from Darnold and Le'Veon Bell, powered largely by Becton. That would likely give them a good opportunity at earning a playoff spot. If he lands on the negative side, the Jets will probably have a tough time winning games this year, but the book will be far from closed for Becton. Ferguson, Johnson, Matthews, Okung, and Williams are the names on this particular list that became superstars from Year 2-onward after a tumultuous rookie season, but there are plenty of similar examples even beyond this study. A rookie season - even a good one - never defines a player. What do you think Becton will give the Jets in 2020?