5 player-vs-player mismatches in Jets’ favor on 2020 schedule

The Jets have the perfect personnel to exploit these particular individuals on their 2020 schedule. Week 6: Connor McGovern and Greg Van Roten vs. Chargers DT Jerry Tillery and Chargers DL Los Angeles has a very talented defense, possessing a bunch of stars on the edge (Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram) and in the secondary (Casey Hayward, Chris Harris, Derwin James, Desmond King), but the interior defensive line is a major question mark. I ranked the Chargers' IDL as the league's worst in 2019. With a combined total of 41 pressures over 880 pass-rush snaps, Los Angeles' IDL posted a pressure rate of 4.7% that ranked second-worst of all 32 units in the league. For reference, the league average pressure rate at IDL was 7.8% in 2019. Jerry Tillery, the Chargers' first-round pick in 2019 (28th overall), had a dead-silent rookie season. Over 15 games, he recorded just 10 pressures (0.7 per game) on 177 rush snaps (5.6% rate). Tillery creates no pressure whatsoever in this one-on-one matchup, giving Ryan Tannehill a cushy pocket and clear throwing lane for a 24-yard strike to Jonnu Smith. The interior pass protection of McGovern and Van Roten figures to be the most consistent aspect of the Jets offensive line in 2020. Last year, McGovern posted a Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade of 82.5 that ranked at the 87th percentile among centers, while Van Roten's pass blocking grade of 74.3 placed at the 76th percentile among guards. In two games against the Chargers last year, McGovern allowed zero sacks, zero hits, and one hurry. Expect the interior pressure on Sam Darnold to be kept to a minimum when the Jets fly out to L.A. in Week 6. The real challenge in that game will be the battle on the edges - Mekhi Becton and George Fant versus Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Our next mismatch involves another duo on the Jets offense against a weak facet from a defense out west. Week 5: Chris Herndon and Ryan Griffin vs. Cardinals linebackers and safeties Arizona ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA this past season, largely due to their massive struggles with covering tight ends. The Cardinals allowed 16 touchdown receptions to tight ends, six more than any other team and at least double the total of 27 other teams. They also allowed more receiving yards per game to tight ends (71.8) than any other team. Both the safety and linebacker positions in Arizona were responsible for the problem. The Cardinals' linebackers allowed the fourth-highest passer rating of any linebacker group (121.6), while their safeties allowed the seventh-highest passer rating of any safety group (108.7). The Cardinals drafted hybrid safety/linebacker Isaiah Simmons with the seventh overall pick in an attempt to kill two birds with one stone, but that's about all they did to address these two positions of weakness. Eight of Arizona's nine safeties and linebackers who appeared in 2019 are still on the team. They did sign outside linebacker De'Vondre Campbell from Atlanta, but he allowed 8.9 yards per target and four touchdowns last year. Haason Reddick returns after allowing seven touchdowns in 2019, most among linebackers. He covers this drag route from Falcons tight end Austin Hooper horribly, giving up a game-tying score in the fourth quarter. Sam Darnold loves his tight ends. He had a 127.2 passer rating when targeting Chris Herndon in 2018 and a 129.0 rating when targeting Ryan Griffin in 2019. Each mark led all qualified players on the Jets (40+ targets) in their respective seasons. Look for a big game from the Herndon/Griffin duo against the Cardinals in Week 6. Week 16: George Fant vs. Browns EDGE Chad Thomas Thomas, a third-year defensive end who was selected by Cleveland out of Miami (FL) in the third round of the 2018 Draft, had a brutal 2019 season against the run. His 33.2 PFF run defense grade was the worst among edge defenders. He picked up six run stops over 165 snaps against the run, giving him a run stop rate of 3.6% that ranked 70th out of 79 qualifiers. Thomas is blown off the line by right tackle Mike McGlinchey on this play (with help from right guard Mike Person), leading to a 14-yard pickup by Tevin Coleman. Early in the season, Thomas was a situational player, participating in only 15.3 snaps per game. His role expanded to 42.8 snaps over his final eight games, largely due to Myles Garrett's suspension. Given he is healthy, the Jets should see at least a bit of Thomas, but if Garrett or Olivier Vernon are unable to suit up, Thomas will probably see starter snaps. Thomas primarily lined up on the defense's left side, which would likely put him across from Fant at right tackle when Cleveland heads to New Jersey in Week 16. Fant's athleticism would make him a major mismatch in the run game against the lumbering Thomas. The Jets should exploit this matchup if they can get it. Adam Gase would be wise to give Sam Darnold the freedom to check into an outside zone run to the right side if he sees Thomas over Fant. Week 8: Steve McLendon, Quinnen Williams, and Foley Fatukasi vs. Chiefs C Austin Reiter and RG Kelechi Osemele Mismatches in the Jets' favor will be hard to come by when they head out to the western edge of Missouri in Week 8. However, this one advantage over the middle of Kansas City's offensive line could trigger a domino effect that sparks the Jets to an upset. Kansas City's interior offensive line could be solid in pass protection, but it has question marks in the run game. Center Austin Reiter posted the fourth-worst PFF run blocking grade among centers last year (51.3). Projected starting right guard Kelechi Osemele posted a 53.8 grade in limited snaps for the Jets, ranking at the 34th percentile among guards. Reiter is immediately beaten by Raiders nose tackle Johnathan Hankins on this play, resulting in a one-yard loss for Damien Williams. The Chiefs averaged 3.6 yards per attempt on rushes directed left guard, middle, or right guard in 2019, which ranked 24th. Kansas City's up-the-middle run game is quite simply not as electric as most other aspects of their offense. Meanwhile, stopping the run was the Jets' biggest strength a year ago (2nd in rush defense DVOA), and it most likely will be once again. Particularly, the Jets were great at limiting production up the middle - exactly where Kansas City's offense struggled. The Jets allowed 3.3 yards per attempt on rushes directed left guard, middle, or right guard, which ranked fourth-best. To boot, they allowed a first down pickup on only 15.4% of those carries, the league's lowest rate. Steve McLendon, Quinnen Williams, and Foley Fatukasi powered that elite production with their dominant penetration against centers and guards. Perhaps if that trio can shut down Kansas City's inside run game, the Chiefs will become one-dimensional enough for Gregg Williams to concoct a plan that holds Patrick Mahomes in check and keeps Sam Darnold's offense within striking distance. Week 4: Braxton Berrios and Vyncint Smith vs. Broncos kickoff and punt units Denver's special teams had a rough season covering returns last year. The Broncos allowed the third-most yards per punt return (9.8) and fourth-most yards per kickoff return (26.8). Ranked 31st in punting DVOA (-11.9) and 26th in kickoff DVOA (-4.0), Denver had the worst combined DVOA between their punt and kickoff units in the NFL (-15.9). The Broncos allowed two punt return touchdowns on the season; a 68-yarder to Los Angeles' Desmond King, and the 64-yarder to Detroit's Jamal Agnew seen below. Denver also allowed the fourth-most yards per punt return in 2018 (10.4), and they have given up at least one punt return touchdown in three consecutive seasons. Meanwhile, the Jets ranked seventh in combined kickoff return and punt return DVOA (+5.3). Berrios' 11.4 yards per punt return ranked third out of 38 qualifiers in 2019 while Smith's 29.9 yards per kickoff return (albeit on only 10 tries) ranked second out of 41 qualifiers. Their success followed a 2018 season in which Andre Roberts pushed the Jets to No. 1 in both kickoff return and punt return DVOA. Brant Boyer has established his unit as a consistent force, whereas Denver is in the midst of an extended rough patch. The Jets may be facing some major disadvantages against Denver's stacked defense, but maybe their edge in the game's forgotten third phase can tilt the tide in their favor.