Does Jordan Jenkins have any untapped potential left? | New York Jets 2020 primer

Jordan Jenkins' career strengths and weaknesses as told by the advanced analytics and film. New York Jets training camp/2020 primers: Avery Williamson Blake Cashman Bless Austin Bradley McDougald Braxton Berrios Chris Herndon Connor McGovern Foley Fatukasi Greg Van Roten Josh Doctson Sam Ficken vs. Brett Maher Quincy Wilson Quinnen Williams Here's everything you need to know about Jordan Jenkins as he heads into yet another season as the leader of the Jets' outside linebacker group. Three positive stats to maintain Finishing against the run In 2019, Jenkins made 16 tackles against the run while being credited for just one missed tackle. That's a miss rate of 5.9%, which ranked 10th-lowest out of 62 qualified edge defenders (85th percentile). Fumble forcing propensity Jenkins is not a fumble-forcing machine, but he has knocked the ball loose at a solid level. He has six career forced fumbles - one each in 2016-17 and two each in 2018-19. Only 14 other edge rushers have forced multiple fumbles in each of the past two seasons. It's a very small plus, but a plus nonetheless. Sack progression I am an advocate of the idea that pass-rushers should not be judged based solely on their sack totals, but in Jenkins' case, his performance in that column is one of the only notable positives he has going for him. After posting 5.5 sacks over his first two seasons, Jenkins has improved his sack total to a new high in back-to-back seasons, collecting seven over 16 games in 2018 and climbing up to eight over 14 games in 2019. Three negative stats to improve Pressure rate Jenkins struggled to make an impact in the passing game this past season. He picked up 31 pressures (61st among EDGE) on 318 pass-rush snaps (51st), generating a pressure rate of 9.7% that ranked at the 22nd percentile among qualified edge rushers. In 2018, Jenkins was more successful as a rusher, collecting 35 pressures (49th) on 305 pass-rush snaps (58th) for a pressure rate of 11.5% that ranked at the 53rd percentile. Pass-rush grade While Jenkins' pressure rate suggests that he was an average rusher in 2018 and a poor one in 2019, Pro Football Focus' pass-rush grade suggests the inverse. In 2019, Jenkins posted a respectable PFF pass-rush grade of 67.4 that ranked at the 55th percentile, while in 2018, his grade of 60.6 placed way down at the 24th percentile. This suggests that Jenkins' pass-rush victories in 2019 were more impressive than those he collected in 2018, even if they were collected less frequently. When you combine Jenkins' pressure rate and pass-rush grade over each of the last two seasons, he averages out to somewhere around a 40th percentile-caliber pass-rusher. He is certainly not awful at getting after the quarterback, but he is definitely below-average. Run defense Jenkins is known as a strong run defender, but outside of his efficient tackling in that phase, his numbers against the run have not been good. In 2019, Jenkins ranked 65th among edge defenders with eight run stops (tackles against the run that constitute a poor result for the offense). Collecting those over 178 snaps against the run, his run stop rate of 4.5% ranked at the 24th percentile among qualifiers at his position. Jenkins picked 13 stops (39th) over 265 snaps against the run in 2018, earning a run stop rate of 4.9% that checked in at the 37th percentile. So, he's not an active play-maker. But that's fine. A player can be great against the run without racking up tackles. Much of an edge rusher's impact against the run is about how well he can hold the edge to prevent running lanes to the outside from opening up - a skill that is not rewarded with box score credit. This is where PFF's run defense grade comes in, a stat that is designed to capture off-the-stat-sheet skills such as edge-setting. However, Jenkins still doesn't fare well here. His 2019 run defense grade of 63.0 ranked at the 42nd percentile while his 2018 grade of 53.8 ranked at the 9th percentile. Neither of those two stats - run stop rate nor PFF's run defense grade - tell the entire story about a player's effectiveness against the run, but it's worrisome that Jenkins' numbers in both categories were considerably below average in back-to-back seasons. Jenkins also made splashy plays against the run considerably less frequently than his Jets comrades did in 2019. Coverage Jenkins is used in coverage relatively frequently, ranking top-25 among edge rushers in total coverage snaps in each of the past three seasons. He averaged 3.9 coverage snaps per game over that span, dropping back into coverage on 9.2% of his defensive snaps. He hasn't been very good in that role, however. On targets in his direction since 2017, Jenkins has allowed 19-of-23 passing for 243 yards (10.6 per target) and 13 first downs (56.5% rate). His composite PFF coverage grade over that span was 54.0, a number that would have ranked at the 27th percentile among qualified edge defenders in 2019. Three plays that showcase Jenkins' ceiling Jenkins does show some very exciting flashes in the passing game every once in a while. He hits the right tackle with a two-hand punch and rips through for a quick victory, bringing down Ryan Fitzpatrick and forcing a jump-ball heave that probably should have been intercepted. Two-handed moves are Jenkins' go-to. He destroys Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins with a double-swipe here, getting to Josh Allen for a strip-sack. Steve McLendon makes the recovery. This is a great display of what Jenkins can do when he couples his raw power with good technique. Jeknins aggressively attacks Dawkins' patient set and gets his hands into Dawkins' chest before the big LT can make contact, tossing him aside. Jenkins occasionally shows the ability to make a play in the run game off of strong penetration on the edge. He does a particularly solid job of beating tight ends. Jenkins stays low, gets beneath the pads of Benjamin Watson, and drives him back before shedding to make the tackle and hold Sony Michel to a two-yard gain. Four plays that showcase Jenkins' floor Jenkins is more prone to mistakes against the run than many seem to realize. His play recognition is adequate at best, and he is often driven off the line by larger offensive linemen. On this play, Jenkins lines up on the weak side with two tight ends to the strong side. Dallas pulls the outermost tight end towards him. Curiously, Jenkins decides to aggressively take on the tight end in the backfield parallel to the line of scrimmage, paying no attention to the handoff. Ezekiel Elliott runs straight by Jenkins for an eight-yard gain. Against a combo block between the tight end and left tackle, Jenkins is pinned inside and plowed out of the lane, creating room for a six-yard pickup by Elliott on first down. As a pass-rusher, Jenkins does not offer much outside of his power game. When his power moves are thwarted, he usually doesn't have a counter and is shut down without affecting the quarterback, as seen on these two plays. Defensive usage Jenkins played 572 defensive snaps over 14 games in 2019, leading the team's edge defenders with 40.9 snaps per game. Tarell Basham and Kyle Phillips closely followed Jenkins with 36.9 and 36.6 snaps per game, respectively. Excluding a game against Cleveland that he left early due to injury, Jenkins played about 63% of the team's defensive snaps on average, ranging from 54% (Week 9 at Miami) to 75% (Week 17 at Buffalo). Gregg Williams had Jenkins drop into coverage on 51 snaps, which ranked 24th among edge rushers and made up 8.9% of his snaps. That was middle-of-the-pack compared to his fellow Jets edge defenders. Basham dropped back on 75-of-590 snaps (12.9%), Jordan Willis on 18-of-162 (11.1%), and Kyle Phillips on 24-of-549 (4.4%). Jenkins predominantly lined up on the defense's right side, rushing off the right side on 86.8% of his pass-rush snaps. Basham had a nearly even split (50.7% off the right side) while Phillips primarily manned the left side (75.8% off the left side). That was a switch for Jenkins, who rushed from the left side on 79.3% of his rushes in 2018 and 68.8% in 2017. Williams may want to kick Jenkins back over to the left considering that it has been his better side in every season of his career. Health/off-field Jenkins has appeared in 60 out of 64 possible games for the Jets, missing two games each in 2016 and 2019. Both stretches of missed time were due to a calf injury. Jenkins missed the first two games of 2016 due to a calf ailment and then missed the Jets' third and fourth games of 2019 (with a bye week in-between) with another calf problem. Jenkins was listed as questionable with the calf injury ahead of his return game against the Cowboys in Week 6. The calf issue landed Jenkins as questionable on the injury report one more time over the rest of the season, prior to the team's Week 10 game against the Giants (Jenkins played and tied a season-high with five pressures). Battle for depth chart positioning Rumors are flying around that the Jets may be interested in Yannick Ngakoue. Adding the stud Jaguars pass-rusher would certainly shake up Jenkins' role, but until then, it seems Jenkins will have very similar responsibilities as last year considering the lack of change on the defensive front. Jenkins will likely compete with Basham and Phillips for the team lead in snaps at the position. The trio should each play somewhere from 35-40 snaps per game and around 55-60% of the team's defensive snaps. The big wild card is Jabari Zuniga - how much playing time will he demand in his rookie season? Perhaps Zuniga takes over the 18.0 snaps per game that Jordan Willis played in his situational role over nine appearances. Contract/future Jenkins signed a one-year deal with the Jets that will give him a cap hit of $3.9 million in 2020, 47th-highest among edge defenders. While he is a tough and hard-working player who is great to have around the locker room, Jenkins is a liability as a starter. He played a large part in the Jets' edge group ranking as the league's 28th-best pass-rushing unit and 22nd-best overall. The Jets need to aggressively search for two upgrades on the edge. Perhaps that starts in the coming weeks with Ngakoue, but in the likely scenario that it does not, the Jets will have to deal with another season of subpar play on the edge before attacking the position feverishly in 2021. Jenkins' strength, grit, and repertoire of power moves would make him a great backup or situational piece for 15-20 snaps per game - perhaps even a respectable starter if put opposite of an elite outside linebacker - but if he is the best you've got, your team is going to struggle mightily to generate pressure. New York Jets training camp primers: Avery Williamson Blake Cashman Bless Austin Bradley McDougald Braxton Berrios Chris Herndon Connor McGovern Foley Fatukasi Greg Van Roten Josh Doctson Sam Ficken vs. Brett Maher Quincy Wilson Quinnen Williams