Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Deshaun Watson or maybe even Matt Stafford? Today, we rank the New York Jets’ quarterback options.
This moment feels about right. Late January 2021 with only the Super Bowl ahead, it’s time to place concrete options into the ether. Sure, it’s fun to speculate and bandy about the football quarterback campfire, but with so much time remaining until the league year officially starts, anything prior to February remains speculation.
After all, just several days ago, nobody had any idea Matthew Stafford was on the trading block, and much more will surface in the coming weeks. It’s still premature for a front office to know exactly where it’s headed at this early stage, but at least the football season is nearly over. (Some diehards would argue it is over, as the Super Bowl doesn’t count for a variety of casual reasons.)
7. Stafford trade for too many assets
The other quarterback in the Mark Sanchez 2009 NFL draft class just so happened to be snagged No. 1 overall by the Detroit Lions. That other guy just so happens to still be NFL active.
Matthew Stafford will be traded by the only professional football team he’s ever known.
Stafford and the Lions recently agreed to mutually part ways this offseason, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. That means the 32-year old (33 on Feb. 7) will fetch draft capital for Detroit. The question remains: Just how much?
The attractive part is that the man is only due $20 million and $23 million over the next two years, respectively—the final two years of his original five-year deal.
In 2011, then-33-year old Carson Palmer fetched a first and second-round pick via trade. The No. 2 pick is off limits and anything more than one first-round pick is probably too much considering the other options at play. (Without the plentiful options on the table, much more could be argued as the right play.)
Besides, how would the Jets feel about relenting draft capital for a soon-to-be 33-year old when a 25-year old stud is also available?
6. Darnold without the option
Truth be told, the No. 7 and 6 options on this list shouldn’t even be options at all. Stafford at the wrong price and Sam Darnold in any form is Tom Cruise running around his parents’ house in his underwear.
The risky business that is bringing Darnold back without picking up his fifth-year option doesn’t align with what’s happening within the organization. (Picking up a fifth-year option that would cost the Jets north of $20 million is a non-starter at this point.) General manager Joe Douglas and new head coach Robert Saleh are now nearly aligned with contract terms. Running it back with Darnold would mean the team would be looking to start the quarterback window in 2022.
No matter how Darnold arrived at this point, he is, indeed, here. Whether it was poor coaching or not, Darnold’s true tape evaluation showcases troubling trends.
He has trouble reading defenses and rarely sees anything past any singular read or target. Darnold locks onto a read pre-snap or experiences tunnel vision when throwing to a specific target—rarely seeing past the primary defender.
— Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) October 5, 2020
— Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) October 5, 2020
Things are still not adding up on the Sam Darnold front. When things are this bad, there's no question that more than one person is to blame; Darnold isn't alone in this. But to not read things pre-snap like this is a consistent Darnold feature. #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/pj1S4y1YjT
— Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) October 26, 2020
Darnold can have success in the NFL; that’s not the issue. The issue is that most quarterbacks can have success in today’s NFL thanks to the defensive-discriminatory rules. And the idea that his rookie deal is nearly done makes things unappealing.
Could Darnold be a legitimate superstar quarterback? The answer, at this point, should be obvious. Plus, rolling with the kid in his fourth year flies in the face of the modern salary-cap team-roster building strategy (more on that later).
5. Stafford trade at the right price
Acquiring Matthew Stafford at the right price is where the rankings unofficially begin as viable options.
Stafford threw for 4,084 yards and 26 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 16 games for Detroit this past season. His average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt ranked ninth-best in the NFL. The man can still sling it, but this current league is a much different landscape than the one Stafford entered in 2009.
Mobility that allows the offense to feature a dual-threat quarterback is an invaluable piece to today’s league. And at 32, dishing out assets for a veteran would be a tough pill to swallow with two youngsters staring at Douglas in the face in the two-hole.
Perhaps the No. 23 pick and a third-rounder would suffice as the right package for Stafford.
4. Watson trade for too many assets
The Jets should do everything in their power to acquire Deshaun Watson. Right? Well, not exactly.
Hopping on the “do anything possible” train leads to insane scenarios. Greed spikes and emotions explode when that’s the mindset carried into negotiations—on both sides.
If Douglas finds himself in the middle of a bidding war against the Miami Dolphins, for example, the Houston Texans would be sitting pretty. Rarely does a franchise quarterback become available like this. Then again, rarely does that franchise quarterback have a no-trade clause.
They key in the Jets possibly acquiring Watson will likely come down to the utilization of that no-trade clause. Understanding who Douglas is as a team-builder, it’s likely that he’ll pass on Watson if the price becomes too high. There will be no Mike Tannenbaum or Mike Maccagnan “sell your soul to the devil for the headline-grabbing move” action this time around.
Watson picking one team and ensuring that the Texans understand they must negotiate with that one team is the key to the entire process. After all, the goal for Watson is to get to his new franchise without it yielding too much in return.
A package consisting of the No. 2 (first round), No. 23 (first round), No. 34 (second round) and a 2022 first-round pick is probably the least of the “too costly” side. Three first-rounders is fine, but dishing out No. 34 in addition just puts it over the top. (Obviously, anything more than that also qualifies for the “too much” column.)
What needs to be considered is the idea that the No. 2 pick can possibly yield similar results to Watson over time and at much less of a cost. It’s unlikely, but the possibility must be considered.
3. Justin Fields
The wild-card in the Watson trade discussions is the no-trade clause. The wild-card in the Watson possibility is the rookie wage scale.
Although Douglas is a football player at heart, he’s as salary-cap savvy as anybody in the NFL. Understanding how modern football programs are built sort of flies in the face of a Watson acquisition.
Snagging Justin Fields or Zach Wilson in the two-hole would automatically set the Jets up for complete flexibility and margin for error. Having a franchise quarterback earn somewhere around $8-$9 million a year over the first four seasons of his career increases the overall health of the roster.
Just look at the past decade.
The Seattle Seahawks were built upon this principle. Russell Wilson earned peanuts as a third-round pick. Obviously, the drafting and player development have to be of quality. But the rookie wage scale has changed everything.
Seattle rode the strategy to its first championship. The Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff and the Philadelphia Eagles with Carson Wentz also found success this way. The Kansas City Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes‘s modest salary, also kickstarted their program this way. The Baltimore Ravens near the end of Joe Flacco‘s rookie deal also led to big things. Even the San Francisco 49ers led by Colin Kaepernick and Washington Football Team led by Robert Griffin III saw this success during the early part of the decade.
Moreover, once the quarterback gets paid, his team oftentimes takes a step back. See Flacco and the Ravens post-2012 and Wilson and the Seahawks as of late.
A top trend here is that this strategy is talent-proof at times. How good is Goff or Wentz? How good were Kaepernick and Griffin? The goal is to obviously draft a true franchise quarterback, but the rookie wage scale allows for so much roster freedom than the overall talent takes an incredible amount of pressure off the quarterback.
Justin Fields at No. 2 would allow Douglas to take the flexible and plentiful route to roster success.
2. Zach Wilson
Zach Wilson’s candidacy falls directly in-line with the rookie wage scale sentiment. He’s simply ranked ahead of Fields due to translatable ability.
It’s close between the two, no question; but Wilson’s arm is livelier and he seemingly fits into today’s football landscape a bit more seamlessly. At this point, the arguments for Fields and Wilson are the same. How anybody ranks the two is a worthwhile debate.
Zach Wilson highlights vs. UCF.
What have we learned? Not much that we didn't already know. Tremendous release, solid mechanics, mobile, arm angle variety, great placement. Tonight doesn't offer anything deeper, but still, it ain't a bad night from the kid. #Jets pic.twitter.com/OWMkSStzGP
— Jets X-Factor (@jetsxfactor) December 23, 2020
1. Watson trade at the right price
Coming in at No. 1 is Deshaun Watson at the right price. (And yes, separating Watson at the wrong and correct price is key.)
Make no mistake about it: Building the program with Watson is far different than a rookie quarterback at No. 2. Everything changes, as not only would the Jets have a surefire quarterback, but they would also have far less flexibility elsewhere.
Watson’s $15.9 million cap hit in 2021 looks pretty, but his numbers starting in 2022 are frightening.
- 2022 cap hit: $40.4 million
- 2023 cap hit: $42.4 million
- 2024 cap hit: $37.4 million
- 2025 cap hit: $32 million
For many fans, Watson’s salary is quite meaningless thanks to the Jets’ healthy cap situation. But it’s quite significant in the grand scheme of things.
In acquiring Watson, nearly every move Douglas makes from that point forward will need to hit in a drafting world that features even the best talent evaluators getting things wrong at times. There will be far less salary cap space and the team will be without at least three first-round picks. Obviously, the capital acquired in the Jamal Adams trade makes the entire idea easier to come to grips with, but it should at least be wrestled with to some degree.
Watson for the No. 2 (first round), 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick and Sam Darnold is a deal that should be done in a heartbeat and is well worth the No. 1 ranking on this list. Other possibilities include No. 2, No. 23 and a 2022 first-round selection—although that’s the furthest I would go before putting Wilson tops on this list, and even that is a stretch.
In the end, it makes sense that Douglas will be involved on the Watson front. He’s always taken pride in the idea that he picks up the phone and considers all possibilities. But it also makes sense that he’ll look to snag him on a bargain.
The rumored trade packages in the current ether are most likely too much for Douglas when Wilson or Fields (and that cheap quarterback salary) is staring directly into his eyes. And considering the importance of Watson’s no-trade clause, if the Jets do pull it off, I suspect they’ll acquire the stud quarterback for far less than anybody currently thinks.
Trading for Deshaun Watson is the clear No. 1 quarterback option. The New York Jets just need to make sure it’s handled the proper way. And with Joe Douglas running the show, I don’t see an overpay for Watson as a realistic possibility.