Best Week 14 prop bets for New York Jets-New Orleans Saints
Clobbered by injuries, the New York Jets (3-9) are looking to continue amassing whatever positive momentum they can possibly build before the 2021 season comes to an end.
The New Orleans Saints (5-7) come into town with their playoff hopes on the line while battling a similarly large collecting of injuries. New Orleans started the year 5-2 but is 0-5 since losing starting quarterback Jameis Winston for the year.
This game features a duel between two former BYU quarterbacks. Zach Wilson will look to expand upon his second Rookie of the Week performance of the season. Taysom Hill will fight through a hand injury and try to rebound from a four-interception game against Atlanta las tweek.
New Orleans is a 5-point favorite at most outlets. Here are some of the most intriguing prop bets to consider for the game, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ty Johnson: Over 21.5 receiving yards (-110)
Considering the Jets’ injury circumstances, this line seems very low. (Of course, it’s definitely not, though. That’s how sports betting works. Vegas knows all. We know nothing.)
With both Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman out of action, Ty Johnson is set to rule the Jets’ backfield. Austin Walter will also likely get some touches – potentially La’Mical Perine as well if he is active – but Johnson seems likely to take center stage.
Johnson has not led the Jets’ backfield in snaps since Week 3, and yet, he has still gone over 21.5 receiving yards in five of his past eight games despite playing a supporting role.
Zach Wilson has been more willing to throw checkdowns since returning from injury two weeks ago. He set season-lows in snap-to-release time in back-to-back games, exemplifying his willingness to get the ball out underneath. That should benefit Johnson.
Another factor working in Johnson’s favor is that New Orleans’ defense only ranks 22nd in blitz rate at 23.2%. Blitz-heavy defenses require the running back to spend extra time pass-blocking, taking away snaps as a receiver. But against a defense that does not blitz too often, Johnson can comfortably be sent out to run routes.
Ty Johnson: Over 25.5 rushing yards (-110)
New Orleans leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed per rush attempt (3.6), so I was ready to take the under on Johnson’s rushing yards, but when I saw his line at only 25.5 yards, I gasped.
Even against an elite run defense, 25.5 yards is a very low expectation for the player who will most likely lead the Jets in carries. Johnson posted at least 29 rushing yards in each of his five career games in which he got at least nine carries.
Not to mention, the Saints are going to be without linebackers Kaden Elliss and Pete Werner in this game, their two highest-graded run defenders at Pro Football Focus.
Looks like we’re going all-in on Ty Johnson today.
Alvin Kamara: Over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Jets are notoriously bad at stopping running backs through the air, ranking second-worst with 62.8 receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. Alvin Kamara is one of the best receiving backs in NFL history.
This feels like a no-brainer.
However, Kamara has had a down season by his standards, averaging a career-low 4.0 receptions per game with only 38.8 receiving yards per game (second-worst). He has gone over 33.5 receiving yards in just three of his eight games.
With that being said, considering Taysom Hill’s injury status, the Saints may elect not to push the ball downfield aggressively and instead rely heavily on Kamara underneath.
The Jets have allowed an opposing running back to go over 33.5 receiving yards in seven of their 12 games. In two of the other five, an opposing running back had exactly 33 receiving yards.
Kamara should have no problem exploiting this Jets defense’s aerial deficiencies to the tune of at least 34 yards. We’re talking about the guy who ranks third in receiving yards per game among running backs in the Super Bowl era.
Zach Wilson: First touchdown scorer (+3400)
Zach Wilson has punched in a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games. New Orleans is tied for the NFL lead with five rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks.
At +3400, this is very much worth a shot.