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If Joe Douglas sticks to his tendencies, expect NY Jets to avoid these prospects

Garrett Wilson, Ohio State, NFL Mock Draft, NY Jets, RAS, 40 Time
Garrett Wilson, Ohio State Football, NFL Draft, New York Jets, Getty Images

Who will New York Jets avoid in the 2022 NFL draft if they adhere to Joe Douglas’ tendencies?

Yesterday, I broke down some of the drafting tendencies of New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas, specifically pertaining to his valuation of draft prospects’ numbers in athletic testing drills.

The main takeaway from the breakdown is that Douglas loves to target players with elite testing numbers. Douglas drafted seven players with a Relative Athletic Score (RAS)* of 9.0 or better from 2020 to 2021, tying for the most in the NFL over that span.

*RAS is a 0-to-10 rating that takes into account a player’s performance in various testing drills relative to their height, weight, and position.

Even more notable is the fact that Douglas has solely targeted elite athletes throughout the first three rounds of the draft. Each of his selections in rounds one through three had a RAS of at least 8.68. Four of them had a RAS above 9.70.

Altogether, the average RAS of Douglas’ pre-fourth-round picks currently stands at 9.57 (not including Zach Wilson and Ashtyn Davis, who each did not participate in pre-draft testing).

Douglas has been open to selecting players with unremarkable athletic profiles on the third day of the draft (rounds four through seven), but prior to the fourth round, he has stuck exclusively to top-tier athletic testers.

With these tendencies in mind, let’s identify a few early-round prospects who might be surprisingly low on Douglas’ board due to their less-than-elite athletic testing numbers. The players listed below all have a RAS under 8.00.

Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State (7.77 RAS)

Garrett Wilson is a possible option for the Jets at No. 10.

While Wilson is not a bad athlete by any means, his 7.77 RAS falls short of the lofty barometer that Douglas has set for his early-round picks.

Wilson stands at 5-foot-11 and 183 pounds. He shined with a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash (90th percentile all-time among WR) but disappointed with a 4.36 time in the 20-yard shuttle (20th percentile). His 36-inch vertical jump (56th percentile) and 123-inch broad jump (65th percentile) were middle-of-the-pack for a wide receiver.

The average RAS for an NFL draft pick (regardless of position) from 2020 to 2021 was 7.55, which Wilson only clears by a slight margin.

Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas (5.79 RAS)

Many expected a great combine performance from Treylon Burks, who appears to be a dynamo with the ball in his hands.

Not only did Burks fail to put on the masterclass that many hoped to see, but he performed poorly in some areas, finishing with a RAS of just 5.79.

Burks’ 7.28 three-cone time and 33-inch vertical were significantly below average for a wide receiver, ranking at the 9th and 21st percentiles, respectively, among wide receivers all-time. His 4.55 time in the forty (37th percentile) didn’t do him any favors.

Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State (7.57 RAS)

Charles Cross is a likely first-round pick who stands at 6-foot-4 and 307 pounds.

Cross actually posted elite numbers in the 40-yard dash and the broad jump. His 4.95 forty ranks at the 94th percentile all-time among offensive linemen while his 112-inch broad jump ranks at the 91st percentile.

However, Cross is held back by his 7.88 three-cone (40th percentile) and 26-inch vertical (28th percentile).

Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn (5.45 RAS)

Roger McCreary is a 5-foot-11, 190-pound cornerback prospect who is expected to go in the late first or early second round.

McCreary showcased lackluster speed with a 4.50 forty time (47th percentile all-time among CB) and a 1.59 ten-yard split (31st percentile). Those are subpar numbers for a lighter corner whose 190-pound frame only ranks at the position’s 38th percentile.

It doesn’t affect his RAS, but McCreary’s abysmal length measurements are also a killer for his stock. He has a wingspan of 70.6 inches and an arm length of 28.9 inches, both ranking below the 1st percentile for cornerbacks.

DeMarvin Leal, DT, Texas A&M (7.44 RAS)

DeMarvin Leal is an undersized defensive tackle (6-foot-3, 283 pounds) who could be a fit in the Jets’ attacking 4-3 front. However, his testing numbers aren’t the most incredible for a defensive tackle who is so small compared to his peers.

Leal registered a 5.00 in the forty (72nd percentile all-time among DT), a 28-inch vertical jump (32nd percentile), and a 106-inch broad jump (56th percentile). For a player whose 283-pound weight ranks at the 5th percentile at his position, those numbers are fine, but not stellar.

Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State (6.31 RAS)

The 5-foot-10, 178-pound Jahan Dotson ran a solid time of 4.43 in the forty (76th percentile all-time among WR) but was mediocre in other areas. Most notably, he floundered in the three-cone with a time of 7.28 (9th percentile), which is concerning for a small receiver.

Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan (7.56 RAS)

Skyy Moore is a 5-foot-9, 195-pound wideout who is usually projected to go in the second round. Some even see him sneaking into round one.

Moore blazed a 4.42 in the forty (82nd percentile all-time among WR) with an even more impressive 10-yard split of 1.46 (97th percentile). However, his 7.13 three-cone (20th percentile) and 4.32 twenty-yard shuttle (30th percentile) were disappointing for a player his size.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Kentucky (7.32 RAS)

A possible third-round pick, Kentucky wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson is an extremely small player at 5-foot-8 and 178 pounds who has solid but not incredible athleticism.

Robinson offers a great 40 time of 4.44 (76th percentile all-time among WR) but only leaped 34.5 inches in the vertical (34th percentile) and 118 inches in the broad jump (32nd percentile).

Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M (5.93 RAS)

Kenyon Green is a mid-to-late first round prospect who offers the versatility to play any position on the offensive line except for center.

Standing at 6-foot-3 and 323 pounds, Green ranked below the 50th percentile all-time among offensive linemen in every drill except for the 40-yard dash, where his 5.24 time was barely above the median (54th percentile). He was particularly bad at the 20-yard shuttle, with his 5.12-second time placing at the 4th percentile.

Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota (2.39 RAS)

Daniel Faalele is an enormous offensive tackle at 6-foot-8 and 384 pounds. Predictably, he timed poorly in speed and quickness drills, posting a 5.60 in the forty and an 8.47 in the three-cone.

Faalele is largely considered a late second or early third round prospect.

David Bell, WR, Purdue (4.01 RAS)

Considered a second or third-round prospect, David Bell offers a decent frame at 212 pounds and one eighth of an inch under 6-foot-1, but his testing numbers were very poor.

Most notably, Bell clocked a 4.65 in the forty (10th percentile all-time among WR) and a 4.57 in the 20-yard shuttle (2nd percentile). He ranked no higher than the 36th percentile in any drill.

Darian Kinnard, OT, Kentucky (5.25 RAS)

A possible second-round selection, Kentucky tackle Darian Kinnard boasts perhaps the best production among the top tackle prospects but isn’t a great athlete.

Kinnard stands at 6-foot-5 and 322 pounds. He clocked in with a 5.31 forty and an 8.11 three-cone. Kinnard also had a 25-inch vertical and a 4.96 twenty-yard shuttle. All four of those numbers rank below the 40th percentile for offensive linemen all-time, with the latter three checking in below the 20th percentile.

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Edward Kirby
2 years ago

I’d love to see Faalele as a fullback in goal line situations.

2 years ago

Very interesting, Michael. I’ll be curious to see if you’re right and JD sticks to that way of drafting, or if it was just coincidental that’s how it worked out in his first two drafts. That rules out some very good prospects. I do like the idea of getting great atheletes as long as they’re great football players first and foremost. Have you written an article using this premise on which players JD may be likely to draft this year, or is one in the works? If not, I urge you to, but that may be the earlier article you mention in this article. I’ll have to check it out. I know that Christian Watson would be one of those players since his score was perfect or near perfect and the Jets coached him at the Sr. Bowl. Who are some others?

2 years ago
Reply to  Michael Nania

Awesome! I will look forward to seeing it! I’m particularly curious about Edge, WR, DT, S, & LB (the positions I think they could address on the first two days of the draft). Thanks again!

Robert Papalia
2 years ago

Nobody knows how this is all going to play out in the draft. A lot of drafting players is based on contingency plans when your original plans kind of blow up on you.

2 years ago

Fascinating. Burks looks so violent and explosive on film. Can’t wait for the draft !