Analyzing Joe Douglas’ consideration of age in NFL draft prospects
We’ve recently dug deep into New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas’ drafting tendencies when it comes to athleticism. Today we’ll analyze how much Douglas values another key factor in a draft prospect’s profile: age.
A prospect’s age is certainly something that teams take into account. If two prospects are similar in all areas except for the fact that Player A is 23 years old and Player B is 21 years old, the younger player is likely to garner more interest.
Player B owns the better long-term outlook, as he’s already equal to Player A in present-day talent even though he has two fewer years of experience. If Player B is just as talented as Player A today, imagine how good he could be in two years when he catches up to Player B’s current experience level.
Meanwhile, Player A failed to significantly out-shine Player B despite having a much bigger advantage over his collegiate competition, so questions will arise regarding whether he has the potential to reach a high ceiling in the NFL.
That’s a very broad example of why a draft prospect’s age is important to consider. Generally speaking, younger players tend to have more room for long-term growth.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at how Joe Douglas and the Jets valued age in their draft picks from 2020 to 2021.
Here is a look at the average age of each NFL team’s draft selections over the past two drafts (based on the player’s age on September 1 of his draft year):
| Team | Avg Age |
|---|---|
| CLE | 21.47 |
| DET | 21.88 |
| LAC | 21.93 |
| DEN | 21.95 |
| KAN | 22.00 |
| JAX | 22.05 |
| ATL | 22.07 |
| CAR | 22.11 |
| BAL | 22.11 |
| WAS | 22.11 |
| CIN | 22.12 |
| BUF | 22.13 |
| NYJ | 22.16 |
| DAL | 22.17 |
| ARI | 22.23 |
| NWE | 22.28 |
| SFO | 22.31 |
| PIT | 22.33 |
| MIN | 22.35 |
| TEN | 22.36 |
| NYG | 22.38 |
| LAR | 22.39 |
| MIA | 22.39 |
| HOU | 22.40 |
| TAM | 22.43 |
| IND | 22.44 |
| GNB | 22.44 |
| SEA | 22.45 |
| LVR | 22.50 |
| CHI | 22.50 |
| PHI | 22.53 |
| NOR | 22.70 |
The Jets’ draft picks under Douglas have combined for an average age of 22.16, ranking 13th-youngest out of 32 teams. It’s a mark that lies just a smidgen beneath the NFL average of 22.23.
It appears that Douglas has struck a steady balance when it comes to age. He doesn’t heavily favor either side of the spectrum.
Let’s break things down even further by analyzing the distribution of each team’s picks based on age. Here is a look at the percentage of each team’s draft picks that were spent on players of each age:
| Team | Avg Age | Age 20 | Age 21 | Age 22 | Age 23 | Age 24 | Age 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 21.47 | 0% | 60% | 33% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
| DET | 21.88 | 6% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 0% | 0% |
| LAC | 21.93 | 0% | 13% | 80% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
| DEN | 21.95 | 0% | 40% | 40% | 5% | 15% | 0% |
| KAN | 22.00 | 0% | 17% | 67% | 17% | 0% | 0% |
| JAX | 22.05 | 0% | 33% | 33% | 29% | 5% | 0% |
| ATL | 22.07 | 7% | 20% | 33% | 40% | 0% | 0% |
| CAR | 22.11 | 0% | 22% | 56% | 11% | 11% | 0% |
| BAL | 22.22 | 0% | 22% | 44% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| WAS | 22.11 | 0% | 22% | 44% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| CIN | 22.12 | 0% | 35% | 24% | 35% | 6% | 0% |
| BUF | 22.13 | 0% | 33% | 20% | 47% | 0% | 0% |
| NYJ | 22.16 | 0% | 16% | 53% | 32% | 0% | 0% |
| DAL | 22.17 | 6% | 22% | 22% | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| NFL Avg | 22.23 | 1% | 21% | 31% | 32% | 7% | 0% |
| ARI | 22.23 | 0% | 23% | 46% | 15% | 15% | 0% |
| NWE | 22.28 | 0% | 28% | 28% | 33% | 11% | 0% |
| SFO | 22.31 | 0% | 23% | 38% | 23% | 15% | 0% |
| PIT | 22.33 | 0% | 13% | 47% | 33% | 7% | 0% |
| MIN | 22.35 | 0% | 12% | 46% | 38% | 4% | 0% |
| TEN | 22.36 | 0% | 7% | 50% | 43% | 0% | 0% |
| NYG | 22.38 | 0% | 19% | 31% | 44% | 6% | 0% |
| LAR | 22.39 | 0% | 28% | 28% | 22% | 22% | 0% |
| MIA | 22.39 | 6% | 11% | 28% | 50% | 6% | 0% |
| HOU | 22.40 | 0% | 20% | 40% | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| TAM | 22.43 | 0% | 7% | 50% | 36% | 7% | 0% |
| IND | 22.44 | 0% | 13% | 50% | 19% | 19% | 0% |
| GNB | 22.44 | 0% | 17% | 28% | 50% | 6% | 0% |
| SEA | 22.45 | 0% | 18% | 27% | 45% | 9% | 0% |
| LVR | 22.50 | 0% | 14% | 36% | 36% | 14% | 0% |
| CHI | 22.50 | 0% | 14% | 43% | 29% | 7% | 7% |
| PHI | 22.53 | 0% | 5% | 47% | 37% | 11% | 0% |
| NOR | 22.70 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 60% | 10% | 0% |
The most notable takeaway for the Jets is their tendency to draft 22-year-old players. Of Douglas’ 19 draft picks, 10 of them were 22 years old come September. That’s a 53% portion, ranking fourth-highest in the NFL behind the Chargers, Chiefs, and Panthers.
Douglas spent only three picks on 21-year-old players, a 16% portion, ranking 21st and falling below the league average of 21%. He spent six picks on 23-year-old prospects, making up 32% of his selections, which ranked 19th and equaled the league average.
We have yet to see Douglas select a prospect who lands on an extreme end of the age spectrum. The Jets are one of seven teams that did not draft a player aged 20, 24, or 25 over the past two years.
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New York has tended to focus on youth with its early picks while waiting for the later stages of the draft to begin considering older players.
Douglas’ three first-rounders combined for an average age of 21.67: Mekhi Becton (21), Zach Wilson (22), and Alijah Vera-Tucker (22).
In round two, Douglas has taken 21-year-old Elijah Moore and 22-year-old Denzel Mims (although Mims turned 23 in October).
Douglas has begun to lean toward older prospects beginning in the third round. His selections in rounds three through seven have had an average age of 22.36 compared to 21.60 for his picks in rounds one through two.
This is a normal trend around the NFL. The average age for Round 1-2 picks over the last two years was 21.71 while the average age of Round 3-7 picks was 22.40. So, Douglas still remained right around league average in both portions of the draft.
Of the Jets’ 14 post-round-two selections, just one was 21 years old (Jamien Sherwood). Seven were 22 years old and six were 23 years old. Both of their third-round picks in 2020 were 23 (Ashtyn Davis and Jabari Zuniga).
Now that we’ve got an idea of Joe Douglas’ drafting tendencies in regards to age, here is a look at the ages (on September 1, 2022) of some of the prospects who are most commonly linked to the Jets in the 2022 NFL draft:
- NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu*: 20 (born 10-31-01)
- USC WR Drake London: 21 (born 7-24-01)
- LSU CB Derek Stingley: 21 (born 6-20-01)
- Florida CB Kaiir Elam: 21 (born 5-5-01)
- Purdue EDGE George Karlaftis: 21 (born 4-3-01)
- Alabama WR Jameson Williams: 21 (born 3-26-01)
- Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton: 21 (born 3-16-01)
- Georgia WR George Pickens: 21 (born 3-4-01)
- Washington CB Trent McDuffie: 21 (born 2-28-01)
- Georgia EDGE Travon Walker: 21 (born 12-18-00)
- Oregon EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux: 21 (born 12-15-00)
- Georgia LB Nakobe Dean: 21 (born 12-13-00)
- Michigan S Daxton Hill: 21 (born 9-29-00)
- Clemson CB Andrew Booth: 21 (born 9-28-00)
- Alabama OT Evan Neal: 21 (born 9-19-00)
- Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore: 21 (born 9-10-00)
- Cincinnati CB Ahmad Gardner: 22 (born 8-31-00)
- Michigan EDGE Aidan Hutchinson: 22 (born 8-9-00)
- Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson: 22 (born 7-22-00)
- Ohio State WR Chris Olave: 22 (born 6-27-00)
- Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum: 22 (born 4-7-00)
- Arkansas WR Treylon Burks: 22 (born 3-23-00)
- Penn State WR Jahan Dotson: 22 (born 3-22-00)
- Auburn CB Roger McCreary: 22 (born 2-10-00)
- Georgia DT Jordan Davis: 22 (born 1-12-00)
- Washington CB Kyler Gordon: 22 (born 12-17-99)
- Wyoming LB Chad Muma: 23 (born 8-18-99)
- Baylor CB Jalen Pitre: 23 (born 6-3-99)
- North Dakota State WR Christian Watson: 23 (5-12-99)
- Penn State S Jaquan Brisker: 23 (born 4-20-99)
- Florida State EDGE Jermaine Johnson: 23 (born 1-7-99)
- Georgia DT Devonte Wyatt: 24 (born 3-31-98)
*- Ekwonu’s birth year has not been officially confirmed. This is an estimation based on his number of years in college (3).
If Joe Douglas sticks to the tendencies we saw from him in the last two drafts, expect him to focus on 21 and 22-year-old prospects during the first two rounds before shifting his focus to 22 and 23-year-old prospects from the third round onward.
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At these young ages (chronologically speaking), is it more about experience and snaps pre-NFL (particularly in college) than actual age? The kid that did not play as much during his college career but blossomed later likely has more room to grow despite his age. IOW, clearly more variables to consider than just basic age.
I agree. Honestly football experience is probably more important than age – I’m talking down to their very first year playing pee-wee football. Their age in football years, if you will. I think their number of accrued years in the sport tells us more about their growth potential as a football player than their number of years on the planet.
Obviously we don’t have access to info that specific, so age serves as a decent barometer of growth potential. But I’m sure teams do extensive work on players’ backgrounds to figure out just how much football experience they have. It’s also important to consider how long they’ve specifically been playing their current/projected position.
One guy in this class who is young in football years (in addition to being young in real years) is Karlaftis. Didn’t even move to the US from Greece until he was 13. I’m sure by that age, many other prospects had already been playing the game for 5+ years. So he’s only really been in the sport for 8 years whereas many other players have been in it for at least 13 years, possibly as many as 15+.
The Jets have a guy who is very young in football years in Fant. Didn’t touch a football field until his redshirt senior year at WKU in 2015. So he’s been in the game for going on 8 years. Less experience in the sport than most of the guys who will get drafted in a couple weeks, despite being almost 30 years old.
I’m not sure the number of pre-pubescent years of experience is that important. People’s bodies change radically during puberty. Karlaftis starting football at 13 is not a big deal, compared to Fant who was almost an adult when he started.
I’d also be curious to see the breakdown between JDs 2 drafts. Things changed radically from 2020 to 2021, I’m wondering if draft age is included in that change?
He definitely leaned a little younger in 2021. Drafting two 23 year olds in the third round in 2020 is what stands out age-wise from that draft. Mims also technically was 23 and just barely misses the September age cut-off.
The question is, how far does a player drop in the draft because of their age evaluations ? Jermaine Johnson Fan, could he drop to ten ? I’m on board with Wyatt, Watson , Pitre, Brisker at 35. I guess I like old guys
Great outlook. I hope he sticks to this board because most of the prospects I am most high on are the 21 and 22 year olds in this draft.