Grading every Zach Wilson throw vs. Green Bay Packers

How well did Zach Wilson perform against the Green Bay Packers?

Our QB Grades series continues with Zach Wilson’s third start of the 2022 season.

Wilson appeared to play a modest role in the Jets’ 27-10 victory over the Green Bay Packers. Was he really as bad as some claimed? That’s what we are here to find out. I graded the New York Jets’ starting quarterback on every single play from 0-to-10 to generate a consummate 0-to-100 overall score for his performance in the game.

Before we get into Wilson’s performance, check out the explanation and glossary below if you are unfamiliar with how my QB Grades series works.

Explanation

My goal with this grading system is to capture the true quality of the quarterback’s performance. Box score statistics are usually misleading, as they do not account for a variety of factors that determine whether a quarterback performed well or poorly on a given play.

After re-watching each play on the All-22 film, I grade it on a 0-to-10 scale. Once I’m finished grading each play, I take the average of all plays to form a 0-to-100 overall score with 50 being approximately league-average (based on my studying of numerous other quarterback performances across the league).

Here are just a handful of the primary factors that are taken into account in the grading of each play, and a basic description of what I’m looking for:

• Decision-making (Did the QB choose the best available option or did he leave a better play on the field? Regardless of if a ball is intercepted or not, did the QB put the ball in danger of being intercepted?)
• Throw difficulty (Clean pocket or pressured? Wide open or tight window? Stationary or on the move? More difficult throws are more valuable.)
• Accuracy/placement (Even if the pass is completed, was the ball placed in the best possible spot or did the receiver have to make an extra effort to catch it? Was the ball placed in a spot that maximized YAC? Did the QB protect his receiver from a big hit?)
• Game situation – score, time, field position, down and distance (Good decisions based on the clock/situation are crucial. Playing the sticks is also important – it is not a good play to complete a tightly covered 5-yard out on third-and-10 while a 15-yard dig is open, but a 5-yard out on third-and-4 is good.)

Ultimately, it’s all about context. Not all 40-yard completions are created equal. Not all interceptions are created equal. You need to watch a play to understand whether the quarterback did a good or bad job (and exactly how good or how bad it was). The raw result of a play cannot give you that answer.

When we analyze every play on film multiple times and grade the quarterback’s individual effort independent of his surroundings or the on-paper outcome of the play, we get a much better estimation of how well he actually played.

Of course, keep in mind that these grades are subjective. They are but one man’s opinion and are not intended to be viewed as gospel. Feel free to let me know your takes on my grades for these performances.

Glossary

For each performance, I include a few metrics that help explain how Wilson arrived at his final grade.

These are some of the metrics I will break down for every Wilson outing.

Overall grade: 0-to-100 grade based on the average score of all plays analyzed. An estimation of individual performance quality.

Positive plays: Number of plays graded above 5.0: above-average efforts.

Negative plays: Number of plays graded below 5.0: below-average efforts.

Neutral plays: Number of plays graded as a 5.0: plays that are not noticeably good or bad. These are typically lost plays or plays in which the QB can hardly be evaluated: screens, batted passes, miscommunications, and unavoidable sacks are commonly graded as a 5.0.

Positive/negative ratio: Ratio of positive plays to negative plays. Defines the quarterback’s consistency level.

Average positive score: The average score of all positive plays. An indicator of how high the quarterback’s peaks were — a higher score indicates his best plays were often highlight-reel-worthy while a lower score indicates that his best plays were typically unspectacular.

Average negative score: The average score of all negative plays. An indicator of how low the quarterback’s valleys were — a higher score indicates his mistakes were typically minor while a lower score indicates that his mistakes were typically brutal.

Wow Factor: Combination of average positive and average negative. An indicator of the combined ability to avoid big mistakes and produce outstanding moments.

7+ plays: Number of plays graded 7.0 or better: elite moments. Big-time plays, if you will.

≤3 plays: Number of plays graded 3.0 or worse: brutal moments. The ones that make Jets fans throw things at their TV.

Zach Wilson’s Grade vs. Green Bay Packers

Let’s dig into everything that went into my 0-to-100 grade for Zach Wilson‘s Lambeau Field duel with his childhood idol, Aaron Rodgers.

For those watching from home, Wilson often appeared to be playing woeful football as he led a passing attack that only netted 99 yards. Was Wilson truly as bad as that number lets on? Or was he better than many folks realize?

Time to hop in.

• Nania’s Overall Grade: 41.7 – (Average: 50, Great: 60+, Elite: 70+, Poor: <40, Awful: <30)
• Plays graded: 22
• Neutral plays: 3
• Positive plays: 12 (54.5%) – (Average: 56%, Phenomenal: >65%, Poor: <45%)
• Negative plays: 7 (31.8%) – (Average: 28%, Phenomenal: <20%, Poor: >40%)
• Positive-negative ratio: 1.71 –  (Average: 2.00, Phenomenal: 3.00+, Poor: <1.00)
• Average positive: 5.49 – (Average: 5.90, High: 6.00+, Low: <5.80)
• Average negative: 3.96 – (Average: 3.80, High: 4.00+, Low: <3.60)
• Wow factor: 9.45 – (Average: 9.70, High: 10.00+, Low: <9.40)
• 7+ plays: 0 (0.0%) – (Average: 8%, Phenomenal: >12%, Poor: <4%)
• ≤3 plays: 1 (4.5%) – (Average: 8%, Phenomenal: <4%, Poor: >12%)
• Actual stats: 10/18 for 110 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (6.1 Y/A, 73.8 QB rating). 2 sacks for 11 yards. 5 rushes for 1 yard.

I landed on an overall grade of 41.7 for Wilson. He definitely wasn’t good in this one. It was a below-average performance. But I do not think he was as bad as he often looked on the television broadcast, nor as bad as the Jets’ total of 99 passing yards makes it seem.

We’ll showcase it in the film review, but the bottom line of this game is that Wilson’s supporting cast rarely created favorable opportunities for him, so it is tough to say he was “bad” when was placed in low-upside situations on a consistent basis.

The separation from the Jets’ weapons in this game was horrendous. Green Bay’s secondary clamped down on New York’s pass-catchers, while Matt LaFleur’s team was clearly prepared for every concept his younger brother Mike was dialing up.

I actually thought the Jets’ pass protection was solid, but the matchup between the Jets’ weapons and Green Bay’s coverage could hardly have been more lopsided. On most of Wilson’s negative plays, I only dinged him with a minor negative grade since the expectations of those situations were so low.

For instance, on many plays, Wilson read the field correctly and chose the best available option, but that option was an extremely tight-window throw with a low probability of being completed, so Wilson only deserved a small amount of blame for not hitting those.

Wilson also avoided catastrophic mistakes in this one (for the most part), so that helped him keep his grade away from disaster territory. Earlier in his career, Wilson would often go down with the ship when his teammates were struggling, but Wilson is starting to do a better job of not exacerbating the situation when things aren’t clicking.

The downside for Wilson in this game is that he failed to lift his team up with special plays.

On the breakdown above, you may have noticed that Wilson’s “average positive score” of 5.49 is well below the threshold of what I consider to be “low”. This mark is actually the lowest of his career. It tells us that most of the positively-graded plays by Wilson were not much to write home about, and that he rarely did anything that significantly exceeded the expectations of the situation.

You may have also noticed that I did not give Wilson a grade of 7.0+ (an “elite” grade) on any plays. It’s the first game of his career in which he did not record at least one of those plays.

As I said, many of the plays Wilson had to make in this game were difficult, so you couldn’t get overly upset with him for not making them. But as the game went on, he continued to stockpile misses on these kinds of throws, never making that “wow” play to get himself and the team into a groove. With just a couple of those plays, this would have been an average-or-better performance.

Wilson’s 41.7 grade against Green Bay is a season-low after he posted marks of 55.9 against Pittsburgh and 76.0 against Miami. His 2022 season grade falls to 58.2, which is still solid and a notable improvement over his rookie-year grade of 47.6.

This is tied for the fourth-worst grade I have given Wilson out of 16 career appearances. However, it is far ahead of the three performances ranked below it. Those games (vs. NE, @ ATL, vs. NO) were awful. This game was nowhere near that category.

Zach Wilson film vs. Green Bay Packers

Let’s take a look at some of the key plays from Wilson’s performance in Green Bay.

For each play in the breakdown, I’ll list the grade I gave him for that play. Anything above 5.0 is positive and helps push his overall game grade above 50.0, and vice versa for anything below 5.0.

2nd & 7 – Qtr: 1, (13:22) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass short right to Mi.Carter to NYJ 32 for 6 yards (E.Stokes).

The Jets empty the backfield on second-and-7. Wilson quickly realizes his best option is Michael Carter in the flat, and he unloads the easy checkdown for a gain of six yards. Simple, good play. Grade: 5.25

3rd & 1 – Qtr: 1, (12:41) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short left to G.Wilson.

I blame this one on Garrett Wilson. He shows poor awareness of the sticks as he bends his route back toward the quarterback on third-and-1. Garrett needs to give Zach a better target by flattening his route either at or beyond the first-down marker.

Zach does what he can with this play. Poor job by the receiver. Grade: 5.125

1st & 10 – Qtr: 1, (8:53) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to C.Davis (D.Lowry).

This is just a tough break for Wilson. Corey Davis is wide open on the crossing route and Wilson makes the right read as he tries to hit Davis in stride, but the defender makes a great play to deflect the pass. There isn’t anything Wilson can do about that. I give him a slight positive grade here for making the right decision. Grade: 5.125

3rd & 6 – Qtr: 1, (8:11) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson scrambles left end to NYJ 43 for 4 yards (R.Ford). Penalty on NYJ-A.Vera-Tucker, Illegal Formation, declined.

We saw some poor awareness of the sticks by one Wilson on an earlier play, and now the other Wilson joins in.

Scrambling is the right call here by Zach. On third-and-6, he hopes to get either Garrett or Tyler Conklin with a rub against man coverage, but the Packers lock down both options. There’s nothing open and Zach correctly decides to try and get the first down himself. However, he slides two yards shy of the marker. I know there’s a defender bearing down on him and he wants to protect himself, so I’m not going to crush him here, but this is still a play you have to make in my book. Grade: 4.0

1st & 10 – Qtr: 1, (4:40) Z.Wilson pass short right to C.Uzomah to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (A.Amos).

Wilson locates his only available option: C.J. Uzomah in the flat on a block-and-release. He makes a nice throw in a tough spot, lobbing the ball over a free rusher to hit his 6-foot-6 tight end for a short gain on first down. Grade: 5.5

3rd & 6 – Qtr: 1, (3:17) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 12 for -7 yards (R.Gary).

This is a very interesting play to try and grade. A lot of subjectivity is involved.

My first reaction was that Zach definitely should have flicked the ball to Garrett once he turned his head to the right side of the field and saw Garrett sitting down with space. And I still think Zach could have done that.

But I see why he didn’t. It’s third down, and Garrett again stops his route short of the sticks. The linebacker in the area has his eyes on the QB and his hips toward Garrett, so he is ready to click-and-close to potentially make a stop short of the sticks.

Also, I like that Zach was cognizant of that LB. Zach started his read on the left side of the field and did not see that LB drop out of the A-gap and into coverage (at least he didn’t see it directly – he could have seen it in his peripheral vision). Because of this, Zach could have easily assumed that Garrett would be open and just thrown the ball immediately once he flipped his eyes to the right, assuming the LB came in to rush, but Zach was aware of the LB’s presence and played it safe.

Another factor to consider is that there is a defensive tackle in the throwing lane, situated relatively deep down the field (thanks to a good block from Connor McGovern) in a great position to deflect the pass – which Zach just suffered from a few plays earlier. If you try to picture what Zach is seeing on this play, that defender certainly may be the reason why he did not pull the trigger there.

This whole process is hastened due to Laken Tomlinson getting bull rushed into Zach’s lap (a rare loss by Laken in a mostly excellent game).

After passing on Garrett, Zach doesn’t really have any great options left. I think he tries to do too much at this point. He could just slide to his left and either continue scanning the field or scramble, but he runs backward and goes straight into Rashan Gary for a sack. It’s third down anyway, so it’s not the worst sack to take, but it’s a hit he doesn’t have to absorb and it costs the Jets some yards.

I ended up settling on a minor negative grade for Zach on this play. I think he probably still should have quickly whipped the ball to Garrett, and the sack is his fault, but ultimately, this was a tough play so I don’t think Zach deserves to be criticized too harshly for it. Grade: 4.5

1st & 10 – Qtr: 2, (14:54) Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 33 for -4 yards (K.Enagbare).

Zach’s second and final sack of the game is another play where I think he could have done a better job, but the play’s failure ultimately has more to do with other parties.

Zach looks for Davis on an out route and starts to wind up, but he pulls the ball down. I think it’s a fine decision, especially on first down. If you pause the clip when Zach begins to wind up, Davis does not seem to have the best leverage to separate on this route. Davis ends up getting a small bit of separation but this is a well-covered route and it would be a very tough throw for Wilson to complete.

Nothing else on the field is open, so Zach doesn’t miss anything here. But I think he could have avoided the sack.

After passing on Davis, I would have liked to see Zach instinctively tuck the ball and run up the middle to get what he can on first down. Yes, it’s a bad block by Uzomah, but Zach doesn’t get touched until about 3.7 seconds after the snap, which is a very long time. The internal clock is too slow here. He should know after passing on Davis that the pressure will likely be coming soon and it’s time to bail.

Still, I can’t knock Zach too much, because, again, he didn’t cost the Jets all that much on this play. Nothing is open. And that is a bad block by Uzomah on the back side of the concept, where Wilson cannot see it coming since his eyes are on the right side of the field. It’s also only a four-yard sack.

So, once more, I give Wilson a minor knock, but nothing harsh. Grade: 4.75

2nd & 14 – Qtr: 2, (14:12) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to E.Moore. PENALTY on NYJ-D.Brown, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 33 – No Play.

Here’s a play that I actually like a lot more upon rewatching than I did when I saw it live.

This is a great read from Zach. He sees that he has single-high coverage as the shallow safety stays home. It immediately tells him two things: one, Garrett’s in-breaking route on the right side of the field will not be open, and two, he has Elijah Moore on a go route with one-on-one coverage and no help over the top. So, Zach makes the right decision and shoots his shot to Moore down the sideline.

In my opinion, this is a good ball. Look at where it lands (using the second angle in the clip above). It only drops about three yards ahead of Moore. Then, watch Moore’s route.

First, Moore is late off the snap. But Moore dodges the corner’s jam and has a good release that sets him up well to separate vertically. When Wilson looks at Moore and begins winding up, Moore appears to have the leverage to win.

However, after the ball comes out, the corner gets physical with Moore and slows him down significantly. Moore slows up even more after he starts tracking the ball, as he does not seem to locate it very well.

It’s too hypothetical to say this throw was a beauty from Zach, so I’m not going to give him a mountain of praise, but all things considered, this is a good rep to me. He made a good decision and put the ball in a spot where it should have been catchable based on what he saw when he started winding up. Grade: 5.5

1st & 10 – Qtr: 2, (10:59) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to G.Wilson (J.Alexander).

Zach makes the correct read and throws a perfect ball. Garrett fails to corral it as Jaire Alexander jars it loose. Grade: 5.75

2nd & 10 – Qtr: 2, (10:55) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right.

Excellent throwaway by Wilson. Alijah Vera-Tucker and Breece Hall appear to botch the protection, leaving Wilson with an unblocked blitzer coming at him off the edge. Wilson displays great awareness to recognize the rusher and then great athleticism to avoid him.

Then, I like the wherewithal from Wilson. He knows where the back of the end zone is and gets the ball out before he risks stepping out of bounds. Plus, he makes sure to decrease the risk of intentional grounding by locating an eligible receiver and firing the ball in his vicinity, well beyond the line of scrimmage.

I think a lot of quarterbacks would have experienced a disastrous result here. Wilson saved the Jets some points. Grade: 5.5

3rd & 6 – Qtr: 2, (5:59) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to C.Davis (D.Savage).

In my opinion, this is a terrible play by Wilson. It’s his worst of the game and one of his worst this season.

To start, I actually do not blame Wilson for not getting the ball out to Davis. It’s a quick drop and Wilson wants to hit Davis on a slant, but Alexander is all over it. That throw isn’t there.

Things go downhill from that point. After Wilson passes on Davis, he flips his head to the right, where he sees Nate Herbig getting bulled into him. This pressure rattles Wilson a lot more than I personally think it should. Herbig is not getting beaten that badly, and the rest of the protection is good. Wilson has the space, time, and leverage to avoid the pressure while staying in the pocket and continuing to scan the field.

If Wilson just remains poised and subtly maneuvers around the pocket to find some space, he could check the ball down to a wide-open Carter in the flat for a good shot at the first down. But Wilson goes into panic mode and bails, which allows a defender to close in on Carter and take him away as an option.

At this point, nothing else is open. It’s already a negative play for me at this point because he missed Carter, but then Wilson makes things worse.

First, Wilson appears to step out of bounds for what should be a loss of about 11 yards, but he lucks out that the officials miss it. Then, Wilson chucks a brutally ill-advised ball into the end zone that easily could have been intercepted. Pause the clip and look at what Wilson sees when he decides to throw this. What window is he trying to hit? Davis has no leverage with two defenders in front of him. There is zero justification for attempting that pass, in my opinion.

The game situation – third down, in field goal range – makes all of this worse.

This is a rough one. Fortunately, these plays are becoming increasingly uncommon for Wilson, but he is yet to completely eliminate them from his game. Grade: 2.0

2nd & 8 – Qtr: 2, (1:23) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass short middle to B.Berrios to GB 35 for 6 yards (J.Alexander).

I really like this play. First, Wilson looks for Breece Hall on a swing route, but he smartly passes on it due to the defender following him into the flat. Simultaneously, Wilson knows this defender’s movement opens up the window for Braxton Berrios, so he instinctively turns his eyes inside to Berrios and fires.

It’s a great throw. The anticipation is excellent as Wilson begins winding up before Berrios lands his break step. The placement is perfect. Look at where Alexander is as the ball arrives to Berrios. This pass is not getting completed if it is placed in any other spot. It also would not have been completed if Wilson released it any later. Grade: 6.0

3rd & 1 – Qtr: 2, (:41) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short left to G.Wilson (J.Alexander).

This play sums up the game for Wilson. He makes the right decision as he targets the only reasonable option on the field, but that player is tightly covered, and Wilson is unable to make what would have been a tremendous throw. Grade: 4.5

2nd & 9 – Qtr: 3, (14:19) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short left to T.Conklin.

Not a fan of this play, as Wilson misses a wide open checkdown to Conklin.

To start, I think Wilson stays fixated on the downfield routes for a split-second too long. It’s clear that nothing will be open. He should have turned his attention to the checkdown, but he continues looking downfield until the pressure prompts him to move.

Once pressure arrives via Herbig, Wilson still has time to subtly dodge it, locate Conklin, and just float him an easy pass since there is nobody in his vicinity, but Wilson never looks in that direction and stays focused on dodging defenders to get out of the pocket.

Wilson eventually tries to flip the ball to Conklin, to no avail. At least Wilson threw the ball away here and did not take a sack, but I would have liked for him to hit his checkdown on this play. Sometimes, all you need to do is make the boring play to get great results. Grade: 4.0

3rd & 9 – Qtr: 3, (14:11) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short left to G.Wilson (J.Alexander).

It’s another play in which Zach misses a tightly-contested third-down throw to Garrett in which nobody else was open.

To start, I think Zach does some good things here. He locates his only realistic option to get the first down and trusts his guy to win. Zach throws the ball with tremendous anticipation and does it with some pressure coming.

Garrett does not create much separation and this turns out to be a very difficult throw to complete. I am not overly critical of Zach for not completing it, but the placement is poor. You can’t miss these throws to the inside. Alexander ends up getting a small chance to intercept the pass. That takes a little bit off the score for me. Grade: 4.0

This was by far Garrett’s worst game of the season. He was consistently dominated by a top-tier corner in Alexander. This game will serve as a fantastic learning experience for the youngster.

2nd & 8 – Qtr: 3, (9:43) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass short left to C.Davis to NYJ 39 for 11 yards (J.Alexander, A.Amos).

Wilson closed the game on a mini-roll starting with this pass, as he finished the day 4-of-4 for 82 yards. Good route by Davis and a good throw by Wilson to get 11 yards on the slant. Grade: 5.5

1st & 10 – Qtr: 3, (9:02) Z.Wilson pass deep right to C.Davis to GB 20 for 41 yards (E.Stokes).

The Jets do a great job of setting this one up for Wilson. It’s a well-timed play-action call by LaFleur (featuring motion from Berrios) that gets the Packers defense to bite hard, freeing Wilson up. Uzomah also throws an excellent cut block to ensure Wilson can roll out with no pressure. Finally, Davis cooks Eric Stokes on an out-and-up.

Wilson’s throw is… good. I wouldn’t say it’s great, but I still give him credit. Throwing the ball 45 yards down the field while running is not easy. Wilson gives Davis a ball he can catch.

The ball is a little underthrown, though, so I hesitate to call this an elite throw. Still, it’s good. Grade: 6.0

2nd & 9 – Qtr: 3, (1:50) Z.Wilson pass short left to C.Uzomah to NYJ 49 for 14 yards (D.Campbell).

The Jets finally dialed up a screen for Uzomah to maximize his YAC ability. Wilson makes a sweet throw to get it going. He drops his elbow and side-arms the ball through two unblocked defenders to squeeze it into Uzomah. Really nice play. There’s that “arm angle” ability in action. Grade: 5.5

2nd & 9 – Qtr: 3, (:23) (Shotgun) Z.Wilson pass short middle to T.Conklin to GB 34 for 16 yards (R.Douglas).

It hardly gets any easier for the quarterback than this. Good on Wilson for capitalizing. The placement is solid for Conklin to run through it and get YAC. Grade: 5.125

A down game for Zach Wilson, but not a terrible one by any means

Zach Wilson had a down game in Green Bay. That’s for certain. He struggled to make tight-window throws, had some poor reactions to pressure, and missed a few opportunities to check the ball down.

With that being said, it was a rough day for the entire Jets’ passing attack. Mike LaFleur was out-schemed (in the passing game – his run calls were excellent) and the Jets’ receivers were getting blanketed by a talented secondary. Because of those things, this was not a terrible game by Wilson. He did not cost the Jets all that much since they were not creating many high-upside chances for him.

Still, there are plenty of plays on the Green Bay tape that Wilson can learn from.

I would like to see him completely eliminate the ill-advised prayers. There is a time and place to be aggressive and accept risk in exchange for the upside of a big splash, but on plays like the end-zone heave in this game, the likelihood of success is too low to be taking on such a high risk. There has to be a real window of opportunity. Wilson must learn to make better risk-reward calculations in these situations, and that should come in due time as he stockpiles more reps. Remember, he has still only started 16 games.

I think Wilson should also become more willing to dodge pressure while remaining inside the pocket rather than trying to turn his back and run from it. There are times when that is the right thing to do, but not all forms of pressure have to flush the quarterback into backyard-football mode. Sometimes, all you have to do is step up or step to the side. Just watch Tom Brady’s film.

Finally, I also think Wilson can still become more consistent at locating his checkdown option when it is the best play available.

Overall, I still think Jets fans should be encouraged by Wilson’s body of work through three games. This was not a game where Wilson appeared completely lost or developed any sort of troubling tendencies. It was just a down game. Every quarterback has them. The key is bouncing back quickly and not allowing it to snowball into a multi-week funk. Learn from your mistakes and get better.

This week’s trip to Denver will be a massive test for Wilson. Each of his first two games were positives – a comeback win on the road with an elite fourth quarter and a highly efficient performance to lead a blowout win. Green Bay was his first down game. How will he respond? An immediate bounce-back game would be a promising sign that Wilson is truly taking a second-year leap.