After the James Robinson trade, speculation abounds that Joe Douglas will make another move
The New York Jets announced themselves as trade deadline buyers when they acquired running back James Robinson. It’s the first time in the Joe Douglas era that the Jets have been looking to add talent via trade rather than draft picks.
However, the Jets lost two of their most important players on Sunday, and they have yet to find a replacement for arguably the more valuable of the two. Alijah Vera-Tucker played three different offensive line positions this season, and he played all of them admirably. Suddenly, he’s gone, and with that went the Jets’ most ferocious run-blocker and most reliable pass-blocker.
Deal or no deal?
Does Joe Douglas want to give up more assets for a trade? Does he think that anyone is available at a reasonable price? It’s hard to imagine that the savvy GM would give up earlier draft picks for anyone, no matter how good. That leaves a lower level of player available.
This question depends on a few factors. First of all, when will George Fant and/or Max Mitchell return?
Fant was hideous in action through three games, allowing an 8.9% pressure rate (the average for tackles is 5.3%), including two sacks. However, it was pretty apparent that his knee was never right following offseason surgery. His current stint on injured reserve is for that injury. If he does fully heal, you can bring him back and slot him in at right tackle, where he can hopefully do at least a decent job.
What if Mitchell returns? He wasn’t quite as bad as Fant, particularly when considering that he is a fourth-round rookie who was considered a developmental prospect. Mitchell’s 7.1% pressure rate was well worse than average. However, if the Jets now consider him their right tackle of the future, they may want to get him more snaps rather than giving them to Fant, who is a free agent following this season and is unlikely to return.
Cedric Ogbuehi, the Jets’ current right tackle following Alijah Vera-Tucker’s injury, played well in his debut, allowing one pressure on 23 pass snaps (4.3%). However, in 2020, the last time Ogbuehi saw meaningful snaps, he registered a 7.7% pressure rate (168 snaps). Do the Jets want to ride with him until Fant and Mitchell return? Do they know how long that is going to be?
Tackle or guard… or both?
The names I discussed above are the Jets’ tackles, and the team has virtually no backups at the position. Right now, they have Mike Remmers, a fellow practice squad signee along with Ogbuehi, as their lone backup. That makes trading for a tackle a natural need.
However, it’s important to remember that with AVT out, the Jets don’t have much depth at guard, either. Nate Herbig is a below-average starter (although he’s only at a 4.0% pressure rate currently), and Laken Tomlinson has been mostly very poor this year (6.4% pressure rate with a league average of 4.9% for guards). Beyond them, the only other option on the roster is Dan Feeney, who is also the backup center. The Jets are razor-thin along the offensive line.
Do the Jets choose to wait out the return of Fant and/or Mitchell and trade for a guard instead? If so, it would clearly be either a backup or a right guard, since they’re not going to bench their $40 million man, underachieving though he may be.
Technically, the Jets could choose to trade for both, but I find that exceedingly unlikely. Joe Douglas does not like to bare the cupboard.
Names to keep an eye on
Andre Dillard, Eagles, LT
The Eagles’ first-round pick in 2019, Andre Dillard has been thrown around in trade rumors since the offseason. Jordan Mailata is the Eagles’ stalwart along the offensive line, rendering Dillard unnecessary. It should be possible to acquire him for a fifth- or sixth-round pick, possibly a conditional pick like the one the Jets traded for Robinson.
Dillard’s cap hit this season is $3.94 million, which means the Jets would be on the hook for roughly $2.3 million in cap this season. He is an unrestricted free agent following the year.
The biggest question about Dillard is his actual capability as an NFL starter. In relatively limited action, Dillard has been mostly horrific as a pass-blocker. For his career, Dillard has allowed an enormous 10.4% pressure rate, including 8% in 2021. He was also called for seven penalties on just 340 snaps that year.
Is Dillard any better than Max Mitchell right now? Frankly, I don’t think so. If Mitchell will be back in the next few weeks, I’d rather see Duane Brown and Mitchell at the tackle spots than Brown and Dillard or even Dillard and Mitchell.
Jack Conklin, Browns, RT
Jack Conklin has been a solid tackle throughout his career. This season, he’s allowed just eight pressures in 186 pass protection snaps, a 4.3% pressure rate that’s significantly below the average for tackles. He would be an upgrade and a piece that the Jets would want to have as part of their team.
The first problem with trading for Conklin is his contract. His cap hit this year is $11 million, which, even prorated for the remainder of the season, is quite high. Even though he’s a free agent after this season, there are two void years on his deal, which means he has a dead cap hit of $6 million in 2023 and another $3 million in 2024. With Duane Brown’s contract already structured that way and C.J. Mosley’s restructure, it’s highly unlikely the Jets would want to take on another potentially thorny contract.
More importantly, I can’t imagine the Browns giving up Conklin for less than a second- or third-round pick. I don’t think Joe Douglas would want to do that.
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Taylor Moton, Panthers, RT
I haven’t heard this name thrown around too much, but it’s worth at least writing here. The Panthers have put several players up for sale, although their prices are reported to be ridiculous. The haul they got for Christian McCaffrey is astonishing, and the fact that they turned down two first-round picks for Brian Burns is eye-opening.
Moton’s cap hit is $7.9 million in 2022 and $24.54 million in 2023-25. Although there is base salary to convert into a bonus and spread out over a few years, those numbers are likely cost prohibitive.
Moton has been good in pass-blocking at right tackle this year, allowing just a 4.1% pressure rate and only one sack. However, his contract, coupled with the assets Douglas would have to give up for him, make him a highly unlikely option.
Laremy Tunsil, Texans, LT
This one has generated the most buzz, as Laremy Tunsil is known to be one of the best left tackles in football. This season, Tunsil is at it again, with no sacks allowed and a minuscule 2.6% pressure rate.
However, whenever we discuss a left tackle who’s never played right tackle, we’re brought to the dilemma of what to do with Duane Brown. Brown has never played right tackle, and it makes little sense to move him there. Essentially, Brown would become Tunsil’s backup, and Ogbuehi would remain the right tackle until the return of Fant or Mitchell. It would certainly shore up the left side of the line and likely elevate the play of Laken Tomlinson, but it would leave other issues in its wake.
Tunsil has a cap hit of $17.7 million in 2022 and $35.2 million in 2023. That would mean an automatic restructure. However, Tunsil is said to be unhappy with his deal and would likely want more money. The Jets’ GM is not known for his maneuverability from his price.
Speaking of that price, the cost to acquire Tunsil would be hefty in and of itself. It’s been said that Houston would want a first-round pick for him. Theoretically, if the Jets had planned on taking a tackle in the first round next year, it could be worth having the proven commodity over the unknown. However, Tunsil’s price, along with rumors about his poor locker room presence (he held out due to his displeasure with his deal), make the chances very slim that he becomes a New York Jet.
Dalton Risner, Broncos, LG
The Jets just saw Dalton Risner this past week, and they weren’t too impressed with the three pressures he allowed in 50 pass-blocking snaps (6% rate). However, on the season, Risner has a 4.3% rate, which is still above average for guards (4.9%).
Risner is 27 years old and has a cap hit of $3.6 million this season. He’s an unrestricted free agent after the year, and he’s likely set for a nice payday. Risner’s career-worst mark in pressure rate is 4.5%, indicating that he is an above-average pass-blocker. However, he’s a left guard, which means that either he or Laken Tomlinson would need to move over.
The biggest issue with trading for Risner is that the Jets likely have no interest in re-signing him unless they plan on keeping Alijah Vera-Tucker at tackle. After all, as bad as he’s been, Tomlinson has an $8.5 million dead cap number next year, so he’s not budging from his guard position.
If the Jets decide to move AVT to tackle full-time, then a guard spot would open up and the Jets could re-sign Risner. However, giving up what will likely be a mid-round pick for a guard who will play half a season isn’t the kind of business that Joe Douglas generally likes to do.
My prediction
It’s hard to make a prediction without knowing the long-term status of both Max Mitchell and George Fant. However, my guess is that Douglas will acquire none of the guys listed above. If he does make any moves, it will likely be for backups that cost very little.
However, if Mitchell and Fant are both expected to miss additional extended periods of time, then maybe Douglas does go with the “all gas, no brake” mentality and make a move. I just don’t see any options, at least from the ones that have been listed, that would make sense for the Jets.
