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NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Betting Strategies
Bet on the favorites
There are many reasons to like the Eagles in this game, including the 48-22 drubbing that Nick Sirianni’s squad put on Brian Daboll’s in Week 14. However, Jets fans who suffered through the two Giants Super Bowl runs in 2007 and 2011 remember that the Giants have a knack for winning playoff games that they are expected to lose big, including a 2007 Divisional Round upset of the Dallas Cowboys, who had beaten them twice in the regular season.
The perception that it is difficult to beat a team three times in a season is actually somewhat mythical. Since 1990, when the playoffs switched to the current round-by-round format (except for the addition of the seventh seed and reduction to one bye, which started last season), teams that beat a divisional opponent twice in the regular season were 15-9 when facing them a third time in the playoffs, a 62.5% win rate.
This would bode well for the Eagles, but Philadelphia scuffled somewhat down the stretch with the injury to Jalen Hurts. All eyes will be on No. 2, who had an MVP-caliber season but suffered from a shoulder injury that does not appear to be 100% despite Hurts’s absence from the injury list this week.
Like Quinnen Williams for the Green and White, the Giants had their own interior defensive lineman breakout; while Quinnen snagged first-team All-Pro honors, former first-round pick Dexter Lawrence nabbed a second-team designation after posting a monster season. Lawrence is by far and away the Giants’ best defensive player, ranking second among IDL with an eye-popping 19.1% pass-rush win rate (tied with Aaron Donald) and second with 63 pressures. He also had nearly an identical pressure rate to Quinnen (12.2% vs. 12.3%). Lawrence was a beast in the run game, as well, clogging up the middle as a true 0-technique and allowing other defenders to rally to the ball.
Ultimately, I think it will be the Eagles’ defense that pulls away in this game. The Giants’ offensive line is shaky despite having a second-team All-Pro left tackle in Andrew Thomas. Rookie right tackle Evan Neal has mirrored Thomas’s rookie struggles, allowing seven sacks and a dastardly 8.6% pressure rate. Meanwhile, the Eagles defensive line recorded a masterful 70 sacks, falling two shy of the NFL record set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. Expect this to be the ultimate difference-maker.
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That being said, the Eagles were last in the NFL in EPA allowed to QBs rushing the ball. The Giants have gotten Daniel Jones’s legs very involved in their offense, as he rushed for 703 yards at a 5.3 YPC average during the regular season and added 81 yards on 13 non-kneel-down rush attempts against the Vikings in the Wild Card round.
There is the possibility that the Eagles win this game outright but the Giants cover. The Giants were 10-3-1 in one-score games this season, including the playoffs, and 0-4 in games that were spread by more than one score, including the aforementioned blowout loss to Philadelphia. The Giants’ style of play is to control time of possession and run the ball well, which often keeps games close, especially since Daniel Jones has limited his turnovers this season.
Learn from Giants HC Brian Daboll
If there’s one message the Jets can take from the Giants’ turnaround this season, it’s how a good offensive scheme can get the most out of players. Daniel Jones did not magically turn into a top-tier QB in 2022; rather, Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka crafted an offensive plan that is geared to his strengths, including throwing over the middle and utilizing his legs.
They run variations of the same plays over and over again, but they know how to match the play to the defense and throw in little wrinkles to keep Jones comfortable and the defense guessing.
Whoever the Jets bring in must have a similar ability. With John Harbaugh’s proclamation that Lamar Jackson is “200% returning” and will have a say in the Ravens’ offensive coordinator position, Derek Carr is the most likely candidate for the Jets’ starting quarterback position.
Josh McDaniels’s misuse of Carr in 2022 underscores the need for a coordinator who knows how to adapt rather than sticking stubbornly to his scheme. This was the biggest flaw of Mike LaFleur’s.