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No. 1 Overall Pick
Some years, the No. 1 pick is set in stone, like Trevor Lawrence in 2021, Joe Burrow in 2020, Kyler Murray in 2019, and Myles Garrett in 2017.
In other seasons, like 2022, there’s a lot of speculation and recalibration right up until the draft itself. Aidan Hutchinson was the consensus No. 1 pick until midway through the draft process last season.
The Jaguars are likely kicking themselves that they took Travon Walker over Hutchinson, but that’s what happens rather often with players who rocket up draft boards due to measurables rather than production.
In 2023, Bryce Young has been the favorite for the No. 1 overall pick throughout the process. Indeed, he’s still leading at DraftKings at -160 and is the favorite at all sportsbooks. However, there’s a lot of buzz that Anthony Richardson (currently tied for third at +550) could surpass Young with a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at the Combine.
Buyer beware on Richardson: he has elite traits but messy footwork and poor accuracy. In my opinion, any team that wants those traits should pay particular attention to the quarterback’s interviews for their processing speed and speak to his former coaches about how quickly he absorbs new information.
One thing that stood out about Patrick Mahomes in college was that he set his own protections; that could have been something that foretold his potential NFL success. Josh Allen is also very cerebral about the QB position. Although Zach Wilson has a strong work ethic by all accounts, it also seems that he’s never improved his processing speed. That might be something any team thinking about drafting Richardson should examine closely.
Also in the conversation for the No. 1 pick are C.J. Stroud (+380) and Will Levis (+550).
| Player | Position-School |  | No. 1 Pick 2023 NFL Draft DraftKings Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Bryce Young | QB-Alabama |  | 💰 -160 to go No. 1 Overall |
| 2. C.J. Stroud | QB-Ohio State |  | 💰 +330 to go No. 1 Overall |
| 3. Will Levis | QB-Kentucky |  | 💰 +550 to go No. 1 Overall |
| 4. Jalen Carter | IDL-Georgia |  | 💰 +750 to go No. 1 Overall |
| 5. Will Anderson Jr. | EDGE-Alabama |  | 💰 +900 to go No. 1 Overall |
| 6. Anthony Richardson | QB-Florida |  | 💰 +5000 to go No. 1 Overall |
WR Props
It’s difficult to figure out who the best receiver in this draft is. Quentin Johnston is the favorite at +110, while Jordan Addison is second at +265. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson’s former Ohio State teammate, is third at +330.
According to many draft prognosticators, there are no receivers worth true top picks in this year’s draft. However, with the premium placed on the receiver position and the reported insane cost of WRs on the free agent market, I would expect several teams to reach somewhat for receivers due to need.
Which receiver they will prefer, though, is hard to predict.
Stetson Bennett Draft Prop
Stetson Bennett is older than Quinnen Williams.
Let that sink in for a minute.
Quinnen is heading into his fifth year in the league, while Bennett is a draft candidate.
The odds on where Bennett goes are interesting. He’s +120 not to be drafted at all, +175 for the seventh round, +300 sixth, +550 fifth, all the way up to +7500 for the first round.
If I had to bet on this one, I’d go with +120. I don’t think Bennett will be drafted. He’s one of those college successes who will struggle to find his place at the NFL level, in my opinion.
Furthermore, details are still coming to light from Bennett’s January arrest, which will not make things easier for him. Unlike Jalen Carter, whose incident was allegedly a lot more severe but who is a top talent, Bennett has the deck stacked against him already.
RB Risk?
RBSDM is the name of a statistical programming package for NFL data. It stands for Running Backs Don’t Matter. While that’s an exaggeration, the prevailing analytical narrative is that you should not draft a running back high. Most analytics gurus will criticize the Breece Hall pick from last season (though we at Jet X might have a slightly different view).
This year, Bijan Robinson is widely considered an even better prospect than Breece, which is saying something considering Hall’s 9.96 Relative Athletic Score and 4.39 40-yard dash. Which team will draft Bijan?
At DraftKings, the Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to take Robinson at +300. It’s a bit frightening to imagine the Eagles with Jalen Hurts and Robinson on the same field.
However, Howie Roseman is known to be a bit ahead of the curve analytically, so it remains to be seen if he’d invest significant draft capital in a running back. Still, Miles Sanders, the Eagles’ current running back who is a free agent, was a second-round pick.
Other teams in the running include the Bills (+500 with Devin Singletary a free agent, a prospect the Jets do not want to consider), Cowboys (+650, with Tony Pollard a UFA), and Falcons (+750).
DraftKings runs daily draft specials and props, so keep checking in for odds you like and earn a $150 instant bonus!
