Would New York Jets fans be happy with this offensive ranking?
The acquisition of Aaron Rodgers has done a number of positive things for the New York Jets. It’s changed the narrative around the team, and that momentum is shifting over to analysts when making projections for the 2023 season.
The latest projection to praise the Jets is NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund’s Game Theory model. This projection model uses 53-man rosters (as of May 11) being run in 100,000 simulations for all 272 regular season games. Team personnel, play-caller tendencies and in-game situations account for the biggest factors when determining projections.
In Frelund’s model, the Jets are projected to have the 10th-best offense based on win-share, at 7.1. The biggest reason for the team cracking the top ten? Aaron Rodgers.
According to her model, no other quarterback in the last five years has helped their offensive line more than Rodgers, which helped thrust the Jets ahead of their AFC East rival Miami Dolphins (and the Minnesota Vikings). Frelund’s model also has the Jets defense listed in the top 10 in win-shares as well.
With Rodgers at the helm, the Jets finally have a chance to be one of the best offenses in the NFL. For some perspective, New York hasn’t had a top-10 offense in PPG since 2015, when the offense was led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.
Prior to 2015, the Jets’ last top-10 finish in PPG was in 2008, when another Green Bay Packers quarterback played for the Jets in Brett Favre. Favre was able to turn a 16.8 PPG team in 2007 to 25.3, the largest improvement in the NFL that season.
If Rodgers is able to turn the Jets around in a similar fashion to Favre – as Frelund’s model projects he will – fans should expect a season to remember for Gang Green.