Let’s get crazy and map out what needs to happen for New York Jets to still make the playoffs
Sitting at 15th place in the AFC with a 4-7 record, four consecutive losses, and no multi-touchdown games on offense since October 1, it feels like the New York Jets’ 2023 season is effectively over.
Mathematically speaking, though, the Jets are not finished just yet.
And considering Aaron Rodgers’ aggressive push to return, it seems like the Jets are certainly not giving up on their chase for the playoffs, regardless of how slim their odds may be. So, why not entertain their optimism (delusion) and try to map out how the Jets can shock the world?
Do the Jets have to win out?
Barring a miracle, yes, the Jets most likely must win out to get in – and even then, their spot in the playoffs would not be guaranteed.
According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Jets would have an 80% chance of making the playoffs if they win each of their final six games to go 10-7. So, while the Jets would certainly have a great shot if they win out, they would still need the right teams to lose in order to ensure that 10-7 would be enough. They do not control their own destiny.
This is no surprise considering how crowded the AFC is. Even though the Jets are technically just two games out of the final wild card spot, there are seven teams sitting between the Jets and the seventh-seeded Colts. With so many teams in the mix, there is a decent shot that even a 10-7 record would not get the Jets in.
The Jets’ bad tiebreaker situation is a key reason why. They are only 2-6 within the conference, which is the second-worst record in the entire AFC. This will hurt them badly come tiebreaker time.
Fortunately for the Jets, they will pick up head-to-head wins against the 6-5 Texans and 7-4 Browns if they manage to win out, which should help them immensely. They also have a head-to-head win against the 6-5 Broncos.
If the Jets lose even just one game to finish 9-8, you can probably kiss the playoffs goodbye. According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Jets’ chances of making the playoffs could go as low as 4% if they finish 9-8, depending on who the loss comes against. That 4% chance would be if the loss came against Cleveland. At best, the Jets’ chances of making the playoffs at 9-8 can only go as high as around 20% if the one loss comes against an NFC team.
Realistically speaking, the Jets need to finish 6-0 if they want to make the playoffs.
Is there any way they can possibly pull that off?
Probably not. But, just for the sake of fun conversation, let’s try to map out the Jets’ road to a 6-0 finish. We’ll go game-by-game and craft the Jets’ most realistic path to victory against each opponent when considering the team’s current limitations.
Week 13 vs. Atlanta Falcons
To start their miracle run, the Jets must take care of business at home against a 5-6 Falcons team. The Jets are listed as 3-point underdogs and are being given a 43% chance of winning by ESPN’s FPI system, so this is very much a winnable game.
Fortunately for the offensively-challenged Jets, the Falcons provide an opportunity for New York to win a gritty, low-scoring home game. The Falcons are 1-4 on the road and rank 27th with 15.0 points per game on the road. They scored fewer than 10 points in two of their five road games.
The Jets’ defense has not been its elite self lately, allowing 394 yards and 22 first downs per game over the last two weeks. Granted, those games came against the high-octane offenses of Buffalo and Miami. At home against Atlanta’s below-average offense, the Jets’ defense has a chance to get back to its usual form. New York needs an absolutely dominant performance on defense to ensure they can take down the Falcons regardless of how the Tim Boyle-led offense performs.
Defensively, the Jets should aim to hold the Falcons to 10 points or less with multiple takeaways. That’s a high bar, but it’s a very attainable goal against this particular offense, especially for a defense as talented as the Jets’. If New York’s defense believes they are truly elite, they should aim to completely smother Atlanta on Sunday. Take matters into your own hands and go win the game yourself, leaving nothing to the offense. A “great” game won’t cut it. Go out and there and be amazing.
Offensively, this is a rare game where the Jets’ stubbornly conservative approach is probably the best plan. The Falcons are 0-4 on the road when their defense records fewer than two takeaways. As long as the Jets protect the ball on offense, New York’s defense should have a good chance to seize control of the game and put the team in a position to win ugly.
Week 14 vs. Houston Texans
The upstart Houston Texans will storm into MetLife Stadium seeking to continue their surprising playoff push, led by revenge-seekers George Fant and Blake Cashman.
This is another game where home-field advantage should aid the Jets. Houston is 4-2 at home and 2-3 on the road.
The offense will probably have to do more to win against Houston than against Atlanta, but it’s still primarily on the defense to keep this game within reach. The Texans are 0-3 on the road when scoring under 20 points, but they had two 30-plus-point explosions on the road as well, and they won both of those games. As long as the Jets’ defense doesn’t collapse and let C.J. Stroud explode, they can give the offense a fighting chance.
Offensively, the Jets must open up the passing game and take some shots. Houston defends the run tremendously (third-best with 3.6 yards per carry allowed) but is highly susceptible to big plays through the air (30th with 6.8 net yards per pass attempt allowed).
If the Jets insist on a safe, run-first approach, they are probably going to lose a 17-10 type of game. Playing it safe will not get it done against an electric Texans team that is bound to put up some points even if the defense ultimately holds them under 20. But if the Jets take some chances, they only need a couple of home-run plays to turn the tide in their favor as long as the defense holds its end of the bargain.
The Jets’ best chance is to incessantly challenge Houston’s poor secondary and pray they can get a few deep shots to go their way.
Week 15 at Miami Dolphins
This is the most pivotal game of the Jets’ final six. It will be a moot point if the Jets lose one of the next two games, but if the Jets manage to win the next two games (both at home against teams with a combined 3-7 road record!)… this game in Miami is going to feel massive.
Think about how high the stakes would be.
Aaron Rodgers is aiming to return for the Jets’ Week 16 home game against Washington. So, picture the 6-7 Jets storming into Miami on a two-game win streak with Rodgers’ return on the horizon. If the Jets pull this one off, they’ll come home at 7-7 and on a three-game win streak with the toughest game on their late-season schedule already out of the way. Rodgers will be back under center for three games against Sam Howell, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and whoever the hell Bill Belichick wants to start that week.
Are you starting to feel a semblance of hope, Jets fans? I don’t know about you, but I was all doom-and-gloom prior to writing this article, and now, I’m starting to buy into the idea of New York claiming these next two winnable home games to set up an incredibly high-stakes clash in South Florida.
Okay, now that the dreaming is out of the way, let’s face reality.
How are these sluggish Jets supposed to go into Hard Rock Stadium and beat the Dolphins?
Miami just came into MetLife Stadium and laid a 21-point beatdown on the Jets, and it’s on the road where the Dolphins are most vulnerable. They were only 2-3 on the road going into that game. At home, the Dolphins are 5-0 with four of their five victories coming by at least 14 points.
Let’s be honest: It will take a miracle for the Jets to win this game. ESPN’s FPI currently gives the Jets a 14% chance of winning, and even that feels optimistic. There is no concrete game plan that could allow this Jets team to beat that Dolphins team on the road. Miami’s talent advantage is simply too large.
The Jets just have to hope everything bounces their way.
That’s how the woeful Raiders nearly won in Miami a couple of weeks ago. The Dolphins out-gained the Raiders by 146 yards and picked up nine more first downs. But the Dolphins had three turnovers, got stopped on a fourth-down attempt near the goal line, and missed a field goal. All of these blunders kept Las Vegas in the game until the very end despite Miami being the better team. The Raiders had the ball while trailing by seven points with 1:58 on the clock and ended up falling 39 yards short of either tying the game or going for two to win it.
This Jets team is capable of causing enough havoc to force the other team into a plethora of killer mistakes. It’s how they won all of their games against quality opponents this year. Across their first three victories – against three quality opponents in Buffalo, Denver, and Philadelphia – the Jets registered 11 takeaways, with at least three in each game.
The first order of business is defending home-field against Atlanta and Houston. Do that, and the Jets can at least give themselves a fighting chance of saving the season in Miami. The fanbase’s optimism will still be fairly low at that point, as nobody will believe the Jets can win in Miami until the clock strikes zeroes and the Jets have more points. But if they can simply go into Miami at 6-7, anything can happen from there.
Then, if they can somehow escape Miami with a win, the Jets’ chances of making a miracle run will suddenly feel extremely real.
Week 16 vs. Washington Commanders
It’s fascinating to think about what Aaron Rodgers could possibly bring to the Jets less than four months removed from an Achilles injury.
The aging Rodgers has already been seeing his mobility decline over the past few years. In his brief appearances during the preseason and regular season, Rodgers looked quite sluggish when trying to escape rushers compared to what we’re used to seeing from him. Now he’s going to take the field behind a makeshift offensive line on a patchwork Achilles? How exactly is the offense going to operate? Only quick passes and screens?
Rushing Rodgers back into the lineup seems foolish for the Jets’ long-term plans, but regardless, his return to a 7-7 team on a three-game winning streak would provide an immeasurable spark of hope.
A home game against the putrid Commanders would be very winnable for this Jets team regardless of what the quarterback provides. Washington is the second-worst team in the NFL based on Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, which adjusts point differential based on strength of schedule.
As long as you protect the ball against Washington, you’re good to go. When the Commanders force zero takeaways, they’re 0-5 while allowing 35.8 points per game.
This makes them a great matchup for a Rodgers-led Jets team. If nothing else, you can expect Rodgers to protect the football for New York, even if he’s in a limited state. Rodgers owns the lowest interception rate in NFL history among qualifiers at 1.4%. Regardless of his mobility, Rodgers will protect the football through his decision-making and awareness.
Week 17 at Cleveland Browns
Arguably the second-toughest game on the Jets’ remaining schedule is their Week 17 trip to the shores of Lake Erie, where they will take on Cleveland’s elite defense under the Thursday night lights in what will probably be an extremely cold game. It sure sounds like an awful predicament to place Rodgers in.
The Browns have the best defense in the NFL based on DVOA, led by a beastly pass rush that boasts a league-leading 10.6% sack rate. Opposing quarterbacks have a 73.2 passer rating against the Browns, ranking second-best in the league.
Considering the opponent and the weather, it simply cannot get any more difficult than this for Rodgers and the Jets’ offensive line. Winning this game will fall on the shoulders of the Jets’ defense.
Despite their incredible defensive success, the Browns are only 7-4 because of an offense that ranks 28th in DVOA. Turnovers are the primary issue for Cleveland’s struggling offense, as the Browns lead the league with 2.1 turnovers per game.
If you can exploit Cleveland’s turnover woes, you can take them down. The Browns are 0-4 when they turn the ball over at least three times.
However, the Browns are 7-0 with fewer than three turnovers – even going 4-0 with two turnovers. Getting that hat trick is crucial. The defense is so dominant that even two-turnover games have not been enough to sink the Browns.
As we mentioned before, the Jets’ defense is fully capable of forcing an onslaught of turnovers. They have recorded at least three takeaways in four games this season.
If the Jets are going to survive in Cleveland, the defense must put together another takeaway-filled performance. Creating short fields for the offense – or even taking matters into their own hands and scoring defensively – will be essential. It is very hard to see the Jets’ offense scoring enough points to win if it has to consistently drive down the entire field against Cleveland’s defense in the chilly Northern Ohio air.
Week 18 at New England Patriots
It can hardly get more poetic than this. To finish off their miracle run, the Jets would have to snap their 15-game losing streak against the Patriots – doing it on the road, no less. The Jets have not won in Foxborough since the 2010 Divisional upset.
Shades of the 2015 Bills game would be in the air. The Jets would be on a five-game winning streak and seeking one final win to clinch a playoff spot, playing on the road against a division rival that is out of the playoff picture and looking to play spoiler. Can the Jets take care of business this time around?
By this point, if the Jets have won five in a row to reach 9-7, they will be favored quite strongly over this dismal Patriots team. Even at home, the Patriots have been atrocious this year, going 1-5 with 14.8 points per game.
There’s not much to say about the matchup. The Jets would be the far better team. Could they maximize the advantage and avoid choking as the team with the better record, like they did in their previous three matchups against New England? That’s all it comes down to.
Bringing in Aaron Rodgers was supposed to remedy the Jets’ penchant for losing big games. This would be the ultimate test.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Yes, I am. But am I going to lie and claim that chance is even as high as one percent? Of course not.
This is a football team that has not scored more than one offensive touchdown in a game since October 1. Talking about them winning six consecutive games is downright hilarious.
Still, at the end of the day, sports are driven by one beautiful drug that ensnares us all: hope. And it’s in the darkest moments when scrounging for hope is more important than ever.
While the Jets are at rock bottom right now, they still have a path to greatness right in front of them. Their current predicament gives them a chance to do something extremely special. Why not shoot for that? It might not be the script that fans had written before the season, but it’d be an even more enthralling story than what anyone could have possibly dreamed up.
Convincing the average Jets fan to buy into the possibility of this miracle run is impossible. No fan has a real reason to believe at this moment in time. And they are correct for thinking that way.
From a players’ perspective, though, they should all be captivated by this incredible opportunity they have been given.
One game at a time, though. Start by beating Desmond Ridder at home and take it from there. And, hey, if you can score multiple touchdowns on offense while you’re at it, then maybe, just maybe, some fans will start believing in the dream.
