What schematic changes should the New York Jets make?
I’d like to welcome you back to our third-ever New York Jets stat potpourri!
As I dig feverishly into the numbers each week, I always stumble upon a myriad of fascinating factoids that find a home within my brain but never see the light of day within an article or tweet. With these stat potpourris, my goal is to send as many of those factoids out into the Jets-verse as possible.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the third New York Jets stat potpourri. Today, we are going to focus on some of the Jets’ schematic and philosophical tendencies. In which areas should the Jets change their approach?
1. Hackett’s distribution of personnel packages is baffling
While it’s certainly influenced by the fact that the Jets are trailing most of the time (putting them in many obvious passing situations), the Jets have utilized a surprisingly high amount of 11 personnel (1 RB/1 TE/3 WR) this season. Going into the year, it seemed like the Jets were poised to be a team that relied heavily on 12 personnel (1 RB/2 TE/2 WR).
Here are the Jets’ personnel usage rates this season:
- 11 personnel (1 RB/1 TE/3 WR): 67% (11th)
- 12 personnel (1 RB/2 TE/2 WR): 15% (23rd)
- 13 personnel (1 RB/3 TE/1 WR): 8% (5th)
- 21 personnel (2 RB/1 TE/2 WR): 7% (11th)
- 22 personnel (2 RB/2 TE/1 WR): 2% (8th)
This is a surprising layout for Nathaniel Hackett, who traditionally leaned away from 11 personnel and toward 12 personnel at most of his previous stops.
Over the past six seasons before 2023, Hackett’s teams had an average 11 personnel usage rate of 58% (would rank 25th in 2023) and an average 12 personnel usage rate of 22% (would rank 12th in 2023). With Hackett as their head coach for most of the season, the 2022 Broncos led the league with a 31% usage rate of 12 personnel while placing 22nd with a 57% usage rate of 11 personnel.
Ditching his old tendencies would be understandable if there were a good reason for it (let’s not pretend anyone should want to replicate the 2022 Broncos), but the Jets’ performance in 2023 suggests they would be much better off if they stuck to Hackett’s past tendencies. New York is averaging 5.7 yards per play with 12 personnel, which ranks eighth-best in the NFL. However, with 11 personnel, the Jets rank last with 3.9 yards per play.
What gives? Why is Hackett using more 11 and less 12 when their success with each package suggests he should be doing the opposite? It makes little sense.
As I stated earlier, this could be partially influenced by the Jets’ game situations. They spend a lot of time trailing and probably feel like they need to place more speed on the field to try and get back into the game, causing them to scrap 12 personnel late in games.
However, that theory loses weight when you consider there are plenty of other bad teams who have had no problem using a high rate of 12 personnel despite trailing frequently. The 2-9 Patriots lead the league in 12 personnel usage rate at 40%. The 4-7 Titans are third at 32%. The 4-8 Giants are eighth at 25%.
What this tells us is that the Jets’ tendency to fall behind isn’t an excuse for them being so low in 12 personnel usage. Even when accounting for the game situations they have faced, nothing is stopping them from using 12 personnel at a high rate.
Not only do the numbers bear out that the Jets are more effective with 12 personnel than 11 personnel, but it makes sense considering their roster makeup, too. The Jets do not have an average wide receiver on the roster beyond Garrett Wilson. At tight end, however, the Jets go two-deep. Tyler Conklin is an above-average starter while Jeremy Ruckert is a solid No. 2 tight end considering his blocking skills.
It’s befuddling trying to deduce why Hackett has decided to stray away from his previous personnel-usage tendencies despite those tendencies being a better fit for this Jets team.
2. Should the Jets go under center more often?
Here is another area where Hackett is operating to the opposite of the Jets’ strengths: The split at which he calls shotgun plays versus under-center plays.
The Jets rank last in the league with 4.1 yards per play when operating out of shotgun. Yet, they are 15th in shotgun usage rate at 66.1%.
Conversely, the Jets are fairly solid when operating from under center, ranking eighth-best with 5.4 yards per play. They’re 10th in under-center usage rate at 32.8%, which is obviously on the higher end of the spectrum, but considering how large the difference is between their shotgun and under-center success rate, it seems the Jets should be relying far more heavily on under-center plays.
The Vikings lead the league in under-center usage at 47%, and the top-five teams have an average rate of 42%. Why not shoot for a number in that area? There’s nothing to lose when you’re the worst shotgun team in the NFL.
3. The Jets don’t use play action enough
Yet another problem is the Jets’ lack of play-action usage. Once again, we have an area where the Jets’ tendencies do not match their strengths and weaknesses.
Among 35 qualified quarterbacks, Zach Wilson is 19th in yards per attempt with play action (8.4) and 31st in yards per attempt without play action (5.5). Despite this, Wilson is 30th in play action usage rate at 19%.
Again, you can theoretically use the Jets’ game situations as an excuse for why they cannot call play action too often. Because they are often trailing, the run becomes a non-threat late in games, taking play action off the table.
That sounds fair in theory, but once again, other losing teams around the league serve as examples that unfavorable game situations cannot be used as an excuse for not calling a certain type of play at a higher overall rate. Both of the Titans’ quarterbacks rank top five in play action rate. Desmond Ridder is fourth and Daniel Jones is eighth. If the Jets claim they cannot call more play action because of the game situation, it’s a pathetic excuse.
Each of the first three topics we have covered go hand-in-hand: 12 personnel, under center, and play action. The Jets can kill all three birds with one stone if they want to. When teams call 12 personnel, they often go under center to increase the threat of a run, therefore maximizing the potential effectiveness of a play-action fake.
This is the exact type of play the Jets have had major success with and need to call more frequently. On plays that tick all three boxes (12 personnel, under center, play action), the Jets have generated a 111.6 passer rating and 11.8 yards per play while allowing zero sacks.
Granted, that is on a sample of just 18 plays, but those are outstanding numbers. And for an offense as bad as the Jets’, it’s very rare to find any specific play type that works consistently, regardless of the sample size. So if you have something that works – especially to such a significant degree – why not keep going back to it? It’s not as if there is anything to lose by hammering that play on a constant basis.
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Bonus #1: Substantial increase in nickel usage defensively
Moving onto the defense, let’s begin with one notable change that has led to mostly positive results.
In 2022, the Jets frequently subbed in Kwon Alexander and operated with three linebackers on the field, forming a “base” package (4 DBs). The 2022 Jets defense ranked 10th in the league with a 30% usage rate of base personnel.
The Jets elected not to re-sign Alexander, who ended up in Pittsburgh. This has led to major changes in how they utilize their personnel on defense.
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