The New York Jets were missing one of their most important defensive players vs. Miami
The New York Jets’ defense allowed back-to-back 30-burgers in Weeks 11 and 12, skewering their playoff hopes. As poor as the offense has been, the defense shared culpability in those two pivotal matchups with the Bills and Dolphins. With the 5-8 Jets now preparing for their second game against Miami, there should be reason to suspect that the game will not go well for New York.
Except — there is one reason to suspect that this game could go very differently for the Jets. It doesn’t mean they’ll win; that may depend on whether Zach Wilson can double down on his impressive performance against Houston. But if the defense can give the Jets a chance, as it has done most of the season, perhaps they’ll have a prayer of pulling off the upset.
Key player missing
Against Buffalo and Miami, the Jets were missing one of their most important and most underrated players: slot cornerback Michael Carter II.
Carter II has been one of the most effective slot corners since entering the NFL in 2021, but he’s outdone himself this season. He is allowing an eye-popping 0.41 yards per cover snap out of the slot, the best among 38 qualified slot corners (min. 100 slot cover snaps). He allows one reception for every 17 slot snaps, the best among slot corners.
Among 77 qualified corners (min. 300 cover snaps), Carter II’s 7.8 yards per reception allowed is the lowest mark. This is not merely due to a short average depth of target; his ADOT is 11.1, which ranks right in the middle of those qualified corners (39th). Even playing the slot, where a high catch rate is more likely, Carter II has allowed just a 55% completion rate, ranked 11th. Overall, his 74.1 targeted passer rating ranks 14th.
Furthermore, Carter II is an asset in the run game. His 70.5 Pro Football Focus run defense grade is in the 65th percentile among corners. He also has just one missed tackle in the run game for a 6.3% rate, which ranks in the 86th percentile. His 3.6% run-stop rate is in the 92nd percentile.
To top it all off, Carter II has been called for just one penalty all season compared to D.J. Reed‘s six and Sauce Gardner‘s four.
How the Jets missed him
Against Miami, the Jets felt Carter II’s absence acutely in several ways. For one thing, in Week 12, Jets corners allowed eight catches on nine targets for 122 yards out of the slot. Brandin Echols, Carter II’s primary replacement, allowed six receptions on seven targets for 55 yards, though the one incompletion was a pick-six. Meanwhile, Gardner and Reed each allowed a 30+ yard reception to Tyreek Hill in the slot.
For reference, in the 11 games Carter II has played this season, Jets corners have allowed a combined 151 receiving yards to the slot position. They allowed 81% of that in one game without Carter II. That’s the kind of impact they were missing in the game.
This is not to say that the Jets’ coverage would have been elite with Carter II in the game. However, it’s worth noting that outside his slot target, Gardner did not allow another reception in the game and was targeted only one other time. Meanwhile, Reed did allow another five catches besides Hill’s 35-yarder against him out of the slot, but they went for 52 yards.
In other words, Gardner and Reed would have combined to allow 52 receiving yards had they not played some slot snaps — which they would not have if Carter II had been in the game since Gardner has just four slot snaps and Reed none when Carter II plays.
2022 stats
It’s hard to draw any conclusions from the Jets-Dolphins matchups in 2022 because Skylar Thompson was Miami’s quarterback in both of those games. Combined, Carter II allowed eight receptions on 10 targets for 67 yards and two first downs in those two games, including three catches for 13 yards and no first downs to Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
It’s impossible to know if those numbers would have held with Tua Tagovailoa under center, but it does show that Carter II could hold his own in the slot (perhaps partially because the Jets may have given him help over the top).
Run game
The Jets missed Carter II in the run game, too. In the games he’s played, he’s been on the field for 57.6% of the Jets’ run defense snaps. Instead, Echols was on the field for just eight of Miami’s 36 rush attempts (22.2%), while Ashtyn Davis (10), Jamien Sherwood (9), and Adrian Amos (7) split most of the other snaps.
None of those players posted any run stops, and they had a 16.7% missed tackle rate (6 tackles, 1 missed). Davis had a 28.9 PFF run defense grade, while Sherwood was at 56.8 and Echols 63.2. Again, this is not to say Carter II would have been better in this particular game, but his overall numbers on the season are a lot better than those players’ were in this game.
There’s hope yet
This second Jets-Dolphins matchup looks different for several reasons. Miami lost center Connor Williams for the season and appears to be set to replace him with a familiar face in Jonotthan Harrison if Liam Eichenberg cannot go. Hill and De’Von Achane have not practiced this week. On the Jets’ side of the football, Wilson has spurred some hope that he can make the offense respectable.
Still, perhaps the biggest difference in this matchup is Carter II’s return. It’s one reason the Jets can hope for a more favorable defensive outcome.
