The New York Jets’ offensive line still could’ve been competent even with the injuries
The New York Jets’ offensive line is arguably the worst in the NFL – perhaps not just in 2023, but in the recent history of the league. And that’s in both phases of the game.
According to PFF, the Jets’ offensive line has been at fault for allowing 45 sacks, which not only leads the NFL but is nine more than the closest team. We still have three games to go and that is already the worst total allowed in one season by an offensive line since the 2012 Cardinals allowed 46 sacks, which stands as the current record since PFF began its tracking in 2006. The Jets are certain to surpass that in the coming weeks.
In addition, the Jets’ offensive line has allowed 225 total pressures, which also leads the NFL. That’s 16 more than the closest team and already more than any offensive line allowed in the entire 2022 season.
The unit has been equally poor in the run game ever since losing star run-blocker Alijah Vera-Tucker in Week 5. Since then, the Jets are averaging a league-worst 3.3 yards per rush attempt despite having an uber-talented runner in Breece Hall.
Most people point to injuries as the main reason for this unit’s struggles. And yes, injuries have certainly played an enormous role. Every team deals with injuries, but the Jets’ injury woes along the offensive line are far beyond what would be considered normal. The Jets have used 11 different combinations in the starting lineup.
While injuries have had a massive effect on the Jets’ offensive line, they are not an excuse for the Jets’ offensive line being this bad.
Yes, the injuries – particularly Vera-Tucker’s – took away the Jets’ chances of having a great offensive line or even just a good one. But even with all of those injuries, the Jets still could have had an average or below-average offensive line in 2023. They blew that opportunity by coming up empty in important areas that could have mitigated the impact of the injuries.
Injuries are mostly up to luck. The Jets could not have done much to stop them. However, there are areas fully within the Jets’ control where they flopped this year, and their ineptitude in those areas is the primary reason why their offensive line has been so atrocious. This is not to say the unit would have been great if it checked those boxes – they just don’t have the talent for that – but they could have been a competent group rather than a complete monstrosity.
Rather than injuries, the Jets’ woes in the following two areas are the main reasons why their offensive line has been so terrible.
1. The performance of Mekhi Becton and Laken Tomlinson
While three of the Jets’ opening-week starters have seen their seasons crushed by injuries (Duane Brown, Connor McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker), two opening-week starters have combined to miss only one game: Mekhi Becton and Laken Tomlinson.
Becton and Tomlinson should have been able to stabilize the Jets’ offensive line amidst the rash of injuries. Instead, they have performed just as poorly as the backups and scrap-heap pickups around them.
Becton has been credited with allowing 11 sacks this year, which leads all offensive linemen. Tomlinson has allowed seven sacks, which leads all guards.
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) December 18, 2023
I know they count half-sacks, but they should split this one into thirds
Main reason is Tomlinson being late to pick up the stunt (again, it would be wise to cut him and take the savings), but you also have Becton and Turner getting beat
Siemian taken down by 3 Fins at once! pic.twitter.com/Sbw9wQEMOh
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) December 18, 2023
Even if you look at total pressures, Becton and Tomlinson have been brutal. Tomlinson leads all guards with 43 pressures allowed. Becton is tied for ninth among tackles with 40 pressures allowed. Tomlinson’s 7.1% allowed pressure rate is 64th out of 73 qualified guards (min. 200 pass-block snaps) while Becton’s 7.8% allowed pressure rate is 58th out of 78 qualified tackles.
Jets should have no hesitation to cut Tomlinson
They would have to eat $10.74M in dead money to do it (they'd save $8.1M), but I'd rather pay him 10.74M to go somewhere else than 18.8M to do this
(Ft. more high-effort blocking from Cook) pic.twitter.com/WDheURUI9y
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) December 18, 2023
Zach reads Gipson to the top, immediate pressure allowed by Becton
Zach reverse pivots, gets out of the pocket, could take the easy check down to Bawden but keeps his eyes up and hits GW on the backside dig
Across his body 30+ yards rolling opposite before the S drops down 🤌 pic.twitter.com/qefc3rYbyC
— Joe Blewett (@Joerb31) December 12, 2023
Some fans give Becton a pass for his recent struggles due to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 11, but the reality is Becton was already playing poorly before that. Through Week 10, Becton had allowed the fifth-most pressures among tackles (31). His allowed pressure rate through Week 10 was 8.2%, which is actually higher than his allowed pressure rate post-injury (6.7%).
Both players are also abysmal in the run game. Becton’s 50.8 run-blocking grade at PFF ranks 64th out of 74 qualified tackles (min. 150 run-block snaps). Tomlinson’s 52.4 run-blocking grade is 51st out of 65 qualified guards.
Becton and Tomlinson’s combined performance is a factor that often gets overlooked in discussions about the Jets’ offensive line. Yes, the Jets have been forced to use a bunch of random Madden-generated players due to injuries, but that’s not the main reason why the line stinks. They had two starters play essentially the whole season, and it’s those two players who are responsible for the largest portion of the offensive line’s terrible production, not the guys from off the couch.
Becton and Tomlinson have combined to allow 40% of the offensive line’s sacks (18 of 45) and 37% of its pressures (83 of 225). Typically, those would be normal ratios for two players in a five-man unit, but not when you’re comparing two premium-investment veterans against a unit that is almost entirely comprised of rookies, backups, and practice squad players.
If Becton and Tomlinson had performed at even just a league-average level for their positions, the Jets’ offensive line would not have been the worst in the NFL. This is the worst offensive line in recent NFL history because the only two healthy starters played like backups.
In my recent article about re-signing Becton, I vehemently argued against the Jets either franchise-tagging him or signing him to a starter-level deal. I did say that I would consider signing him as a backup.
At this point, though, is he even worth having as a backup? Becton has some of the worst numbers of any starting offensive lineman in the league, and his durability track record speaks for itself. I would stay far away as the Jets, unless his market price dips to a shockingly low number.
As for Tomlinson, he has entered the conversation among the worst signings in Jets history. The Jets paid him as a top-10 guard and he leads his entire position in sacks and pressures allowed. The value of a contract can hardly get worse than that.
Cutting Tomlinson in the offseason should be a no-brainer. He is due to have an $18.8 million cap hit next season in the third year of a backloaded contract. The Jets will have to eat $10.7 million in dead money to cut Tomlinson, but they would save $8.1 million. If you’re the Jets, would you rather pay Tomlinson $10.7 million to go sink another team’s offense or $18.8 million to continue sinking yours? Eat the dead money and move on. No restructures or pay cuts.
These players’ downfalls reflect extremely poorly on Joe Douglas. Tomlinson was one of Douglas’ largest financial investments as the Jets’ general manager, including the largest in the offensive line. Becton was his first draft pick with the team and remains his highest pick for the offensive line.
Douglas selected Becton over Tristan Wirfs, who went to Tampa Bay two picks later and became an All-Pro. It’s also worth noting that there were four other guards in the 2022 free agent market who joined new teams on $25+ million contracts, so the Jets had alternative options to Tomlinson, too.
Douglas whiffed badly on two of his biggest investments in the offensive line.
2. No diamonds in the rough
Douglas’ offensive line crimes range from the very top of the investment spectrum to the very bottom.
Not only has Douglas struck out on his biggest swings, but he also hasn’t discovered any steals in places where you aren’t expected to find useful players. Whether it be the late rounds of the draft, the undrafted free agent pool, or the bargain bin of free agency, the Jets’ offensive line does not feature any bang-for-your-buck pickups.
This is a huge problem when it comes to offensive line construction. While you can easily solidify many position groups on the field simply by investing in one or two premium players, it is much tougher to do that for the offensive line. It’s a five-man unit. Look around the NFL. How many great offensive lines feature five blue-chip talents? There aren’t many.
Looking at PFF’s ranking of top offensive lines entering Week 15, you’ll see that most of the top units have multiple starters who were not a blockbuster addition for their team.
The top-ranked Eagles have a sixth-round pick (Jason Kelce) and a seventh-round pick (Jordan Mailata). Those guys are household names now, but at one point, they were just a couple of unknown youngsters whose names flashed across the bottom of the screen for a few seconds on Day 3 of the draft. Philadelphia’s consistent offensive line dominance stems from its ability to turn late-round picks into high-level starters.
The second-ranked Ravens have two veteran starters who were mid-level signings: right guard Kevin Zeitler is making $7.5 million per year while right tackle Morgan Moses is making $5 million per year. Those two players combine to make less than Tomlinson’s $13.3 million per year. The Ravens are also starting John Simpson at left guard, a former fourth-round pick of the Raiders who they initially signed to their practice squad last December. Simpson has not allowed a sack in 14 starts this year.
The third-ranked Cowboys have a fourth-round pick starting at center (Tyler Biadasz) and an undrafted free agent at right tackle (Terrence Steele).
We can go on and on. While it’s easy to crush Douglas all day long for not building a wall of household names up front, it’s an equally harmful problem that he has not been unearthing any diamonds in the rough.
The Jets’ chronic injury problems allowed a plethora of offensive linemen to get opportunities this year. And yet, despite having an unusually high number of chances for a surprising steal to emerge, nobody rose to the occasion and outperformed expectations. This includes players from multiple categories.
Douglas’ two recent fourth-round picks, Carter Warren and Max Mitchell, both look completely lost (although Warren is a rookie and deserves time to develop). Mid-level free agent signings like Billy Turner and Wes Schweitzer have done nothing to stand out.
Yes, Douglas (or whoever is the general manager going forward) and the Jets should invest heavily into the offensive line this offseason considering how low it has stooped. They absolutely need to add as many blue-chip talents into this unit as they can. First-round picks, lucrative free agents, blockbuster trades – by all means, go out and aggressively pursue those things. I’m not saying the Jets shouldn’t make these types of investments in the unit.
With that being said, it’s unlikely the Jets will be able to construct a unit comprised of five blue chips anytime soon, especially considering how much money they must save to extend their successful draft picks at other positions in the near future. It’s a really difficult thing to do, and it’s also a questionable allocation of assets to put so much into one unit. Many teams around the league have proven you can find good offensive linemen in unlikely places, which means over-investing in the offensive line is not necessary to make it a great unit.
Realistically speaking, to build an elite offensive line, you have to find two starter-level players from places where you’re not expected to. This is how the majority of great offensive lines are constructed. Whether it’s a late-round pick, an undrafted free agent, a mid-priced veteran free agent, or even a scrap-heap pickup, the Jets need to start discovering some steals in the offensive line.
Who is to blame for the Jets’ lack of steals up front? That question is difficult for us to answer as outsiders. Ultimately, it’s some combination of the front office (Douglas and the scouting staff) and the coaching staff. Perhaps the front office has not done a good job of locating talented players who are capable of developing into quality starters, regardless of how well they are coached. Or, maybe the staff isn’t doing a good job of maximizing the talent that is given to them.
Without being in the building, it’s impossible to accurately divvy up the blame, but it’s fair to say that both parties deserve criticism. Douglas and his staff need to do a better job of identifying potential starter-quality talent in spots where other teams cannot see it. Robert Saleh and his staff need to do a better job of finding ways to get the most out of overlooked players.
Bottom line
Injuries crushed the Jets’ offensive line this year. No question.
But all the injuries really did was lower the unit’s ceiling – eliminating its chances of being a good or above-average group. The chance to be average, or at least competent, remained in place all year long. The Jets fell lightyears short of that benchmark because of their failures in finding and developing talent.
If the Jets’ premium investments played up to expectations and the front office/coaching staff was able to find just one unlikely steal, this offensive line would have been moderately respectable even with the same number of injuries. It still would not have been good, but it could have easily landed somewhere in the 20s on the leaguewide leaderboard, which sure beats their current record-setting ineptitude.
Injuries are not what ruined the offensive line’s season. The underlying flaws in the Jets’ front office and coaching staff are what ruined the offensive line’s season. Those flaws simply became more visible because of the injuries.
If the Jets were a well-oiled machine, they would have weathered this storm and fielded an offensive line that at least gave the team a fighting chance. As we all know, though, the Jets are not a well-oiled machine. They have made countless mistakes in the construction and development of this offensive line – mistakes that still would have crushed the unit if it were perfectly healthy.
Toss injuries into the mix, and an already-flawed offensive line became one of the greatest disasters in recent NFL history.
