The New York Jets’ offense should mold a new identity to get ahead of the NFL curve
They always call the NFL a “copycat league.” What does that mean?
Football is a highly complex sport that presents teams with an infinite number of potential ways to be successful. It’s one of the main reasons why this is the greatest sport in the world, in my humble opinion.
With the sea of options being so vast, there is always something uncharted waiting to be discovered. And when someone discovers that new strategy before anyone else, they will hold a momentary advantage while the rest of the league tries to figure out how to stop it.
Other teams will begin copying the groundbreaking strategy. Eventually, it will no longer be groundbreaking. It becomes the new normal. Defenses will have adapted to stop it.
From there, another new strategy will pop up, designed to counter the previous wave. And so the cycle continues.
This brings us to the New York Jets. To have success in 2023, they need to construct their offense with modern NFL trends in mind.
In 2023, the Jets’ offense did not have an identity. What was their plan? How did they want to win games? Nobody can answer those questions, because there are no answers. The Jets simply could not decide what they wanted to do once Aaron Rodgers went down.
They are hoping to rekindle their identity with the return of a healthy Rodgers. But the widely accepted belief is they’ll just try to replicate what worked for Rodgers in Green Bay.
There’s credence to that concept. Rodgers won four MVPs with the Packers, including two with Nathaniel Hackett as his offensive coordinator. He is widely considered one of the most talented quarterbacks of all time. Why not try to carry over that success to New York?
I beg to differ. In my opinion, it’s time for Rodgers and Hackett to look in the mirror and admit they have to make some changes. Playing it safe by trying to copy what worked in Green Bay will only lead to mediocrity.
When the 2024 season opener arrives, it will have been three years since Rodgers played at a high level. He was mediocre in 2022 and missed an entire season in 2023. Rodgers has changed as an athlete and as a player. The league has changed. His surroundings have changed – most importantly, there’s no Matt LaFleur to carry Hackett in New York.
Instead of holding onto the past, the Jets need to forge something new if they want to play offense at a championship-caliber level in 2024.
The easy solution to that would be to copy what’s working around the league right now. But I think they should take it a step further. Rather than mimicking the current league wave, the Jets should get ahead of the curve by trying new things that the rest of the league hasn’t caught onto yet.
Yes, I know this is a lot to ask from a 40-year-old quarterback and an offensive coordinator who showed little to no creativity last year. But you know what? The Jets’ backs are to the wall. Rodgers is the most scrutinized figure in the NFL. Hackett, Robert Saleh, and Joe Douglas have their jobs and reputations on the line. It’s gut-check time. Why play it safe? Now is a better time than ever to take chances.
At least, that’s what I would do if I was in their shoes, but most likely, the Jets won’t heed any of the advice I lay out here. We know how this regime operates.
Nonetheless, these are a few of the principles I would advise the Jets to build their offense around. Each one is designed to maximize crucial pieces of information that we gained from league trends in 2023, with the ultimate goal of creating an offense that is unlike anything being run in the league today.
Throw screens in the garbage
Everyone in the NFL seems to love screen passes nowadays. And it’s not hard to understand why. It’s an easy way to get the ball to your best playmakers. You can just feed them the ball without relying on the pass protection to hold up and the route concept to work. It’s also a nice easy throw to help get your quarterback in rhythm.
It is also viewed as an extension of the run game. Screens can help pull defenses closer to the line of scrimmage, opening up the deep passing game.
Here’s the reality, though: screen plays stink.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, screen passes in the 2023 season yielded an average of -0.16 EPA (Expected Points Added) per attempt. That made it by far the least efficient route type among the 12 that are tracked by NGS:
- Post (0.56)
- Corner (0.42)
- Wheel (0.28)
- Slant (0.23)
- Go (0.18)
- Cross (0.14)
- Hitch (0.12)
- Out (0.10)
- In (0.07)
- Angle (-0.02)
- Flat (-0.08)
- Screen (-0.16)
Not only was it the worst type of pass to throw, but it was so ineffective that teams would be better off if they just ran the ball. Per NGS, the 2023 league average for EPA per attempt on designed run plays was -0.13. It’s not a massive difference, but it’s enough to defeat the idea that screens are essentially run plays. They’re actually worse.
I think some team out there can get a step ahead of the rest of the NFL if they begin to eliminate screen passes from their offense. Theoretically, there is a lot of value to be gained for each screen pass that is converted to a run play or a different type of pass play.
I’m not saying to never run screens – calling one here and there can keep defenses honest and set up other plays out of the same look – but the results yielded by screens are so awful that they just seem like a waste of time.
To the Jets’ credit, they did not throw many screens in 2023. Per NGS tracking, the Jets ranked 28th with 41 screen attempts.
However, screens were a fixture in the Packers’ offense during Rodgers’ heyday. From 2020-21 (his two MVP seasons with Hackett and Davante Adams), the Packers ranked seventh with 122 screen attempts.
With that in mind, it seems very likely the Jets will try to be a screen-heavy team in 2024. This is especially likely if Adams comes to town.
If you and I can see that coming, you know who else can? Opposing defenses.
That is just one more reason why the Jets should ditch the screen pass. Not only do league-wide trends suggest it is a bad play, but opponents are going to expect the Jets to run them.
This is a great opportunity for the Jets to be trend-breakers and get ahead of the league. Ditch the screen passes and convert them into plays that tend to provide more value.
The best alternative to the screen pass is to just hand the ball off to your wide receiver instead of throwing it to him. Jet sweeps and end arounds are incredibly successful in today’s league.
In 2023, wide receivers averaged 0.10 EPA per rush attempt and 6.0 yards per rush attempt. Most notably, they had a 52.6% success rate, meaning they generated positive EPA on over half of their rush attempts. Comparatively, screens had a 39.1% success rate.
Wide receiver run plays put the player in a similar position to be successful as they would be on a screen while removing all of the risks that come with screens. You don’t have to worry about interceptions (there were 10 of them on screens this year), ineligible downfield penalties, offensive pass interference penalties, or sacks that occur due to the play being broken. The removal of these risk factors is one of the biggest reasons why it is a more reliable play than the screen.
The Jets saw this firsthand last season. They had a 37.5% success rate on screens compared to a 58.3% success rate on rushing attempts by their wide receivers (7 for 12).
If the Jets want an alternative to their conventional run game, or if they want to feed the ball to Garrett Wilson or another playmaker, just motion him across the formation and hand him the ball. It’s proven to be an immensely better option than throwing him a screen.
I would love to see the Jets come out in 2024 with an offense that barely ever calls screens but calls an unusually high number of wide receiver runs. Defenses would be bewildered by the concept, especially considering Rodgers and Hackett’s previous screen-loving tendencies.
Throw something new at your opponents and see what happens. You can always go back if it doesn’t work. Having Aaron Rodgers is great, but having Aaron Rodgers and a trail-blazing offensive identity? That’s a formula for success.
Take more shots on post routes instead of go routes
In the list above, you may have noticed that post routes were the most efficient route of the 2023 season based on tracking from NGS. Post routes generated 0.56 EPA per attempt, at least double every other route type besides corner routes (0.42).
It’s particularly notable that post routes were far more effective than go routes. Go routes generated 0.18 EPA per attempt (5th of the 12 route types tracked by NGS) and 10.2 yards per attempt (3rd), which are great numbers, but they pale in comparison to the 0.56 EPA per attempt (1st) and 13.0 yards per attempt (1st) of post routes. Posts are the superior deep shot in terms of efficiency per attempt.
However, teams still leaned toward go routes as their primary weapon for attacking vertically. Based on the way it was tracked by NGS, there were 1,649 go routes attempted (3.0 per game for the average team) and 817 post routes (1.5).
The disparity is even larger if you isolate passes that traveled at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. There were 955 go routes thrown in the deep range (1.8 per game for the average team) and 305 post routes (0.6). Yet, the efficiency of post routes was even better on these deep passes, averaging an incredible 0.62 EPA per attempt. Deep go routes produced 0.23 EPA per attempt.
There is a ton of value to be gained if the Jets can get ahead of the curve and be the first team to bridge the gap between go routes and post routes. While most teams are still trying to attack deep up the sidelines, the Jets should buck the trend by attacking deep down the middle.
This is a perfect way to counter the direction NFL defenses are trending. With offenses attempting so many more deep shots up the sideline instead of over the middle, defenses have been gradually increasing their reliance on two-high coverages (two safeties lined up deep). Each year since 2017 (the first year data is available per NGS), the league-average usage rate of two-high coverage has increased:
- 2023: Two-high coverage on 42.1% of pass plays
- 2022: 40.9%
- 2021: 38.9%
- 2020: 35.9%
- 2019: 35.3%
- 2018: 33.7%
Two-high coverages are effective for denying deep throws outside of the numbers, but they vacate the middle of the field, leaving the defense vulnerable against post routes.
Based on the way things are trending, it will not be long until the average NFL team is using two-high coverage on almost half of its plays. Now is the time for someone to jump on this trend and start leaning on the post route as their bread-and-butter deep shot instead of the go route.
For the Jets to be that team, Rodgers and Hackett will have to welcome a change compared to their past tendencies. Rodgers loved the go route during his time with Hackett in Green Bay.
The table below shows the percentage of Rodgers’ pass attempts from 2019-21 that were of each route type, and how it compared to the NFL average over that span. As you can see, the go route was his second-favorite throw compared to average, while he only used the post route at a league-average rate.
This should be one of the Jets’ biggest adjustments. Converting some of those go routes into post routes could potentially make a significant difference. Not only has the post route proven to be more efficient than the go route in general, but with the way the league is trending, NFL defenses are becoming more vulnerable to the post and less vulnerable to the go.
It’s easy to picture Garrett Wilson thriving on post routes.
IDC that he doesn't get the ball throw to him. This post is nasty from Wilson….CB is absolutely lost pic.twitter.com/3BqDN93Gmc
— Joe Blewett (@Joerb31) February 17, 2022
Here are four plays against the Falcons where Wilson separated vertically between the numbers (either with a post or some variation of it, particularly with a corner-post in the second clip). The Jets did not target him on any of these plays, due either to bad protection or a miss by the quarterback, but these clips display the potential of the post route.
4 plays where Garrett Wilson is open for a deep shot and doesn't get the football pic.twitter.com/peXpWyaQKe
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) December 6, 2023
The Jets can get a leg up on the competition if they work to optimize the route-type efficiency trends we are seeing around the league.
Make Duo concepts a fixture of the run game
Like the majority of NFL teams today, the Jets are known as an outside-zone team in the run game. Primarily, they want their linemen to run laterally to set up big plays along the sideline.
Outside-zone offenses have been quickly growing in popularity for years now, and defenses have adapted. Linebackers and defensive tackles are smaller and speedier than ever. Defenses are constructed to run laterally with offensive linemen and chase running backs down to the sidelines.
That’s why the inside power-running game is about to make a comeback – and the Jets should lead the charge.
NFL film analyst Nate Tice of The Athletic and Yahoo Sports put out some numbers in late November that really caught my attention.
From what he had seen around the league on tape, Tice theorized that the “Duo” run-blocking concept had become the most efficient run play in the NFL. He dug up the numbers (through Week 12) and they backed up his hypothesis.
I broke down the "main" run concepts in the NFL with their league-wide results in terms of success rate and EPA per rush:
Zone:
3994 attempts, 37.3% success rate, -.08 EPA/rushGap:
1283, 36.6%, -.08Duo:
702, 45.1%, -.04Pin-Pull
168, 36.2%, -.13Trap:
158, 41%, -.17— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 28, 2023
In terms of both success rate (45.1%) and EPA per rush (-0.04), Duo runs were by far the most effective run play when compared against Zone, Gap, Pin-Pull, and Trap plays. The 45.1% success rate is particularly notable. That’s incredible consistency for a run play; it was 7.8% higher than Zone and 8.5% higher than Gap.
The Duo concept asks offensive linemen to execute double teams on defensive linemen at the first level before climbing to the linebackers at the second level. It’s a relatively simple concept, especially in comparison to zone-blocking, which helps to negate some of the potential communication issues that plague many offensive lines around the league.
In addition, the downhill nature of the concept makes it an effective tool for punishing light boxes, which are becoming more common in the world of nickel-heavy NFL defenses.
Tice notes that another one of the main reasons the concept was successful this year was the creativity that teams used in setting it up, specifically crediting the Rams’ pre-snap motion.
NFL teams are also getting more creative with how they are getting to Duo, too. With the Rams offense leading the way.
The Rams will motion their TE or WR to change up their blocking angles and give the defense little time to react before the snap. pic.twitter.com/ftFSGscpS6
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 28, 2023
Not only should the Jets shift toward Duo simply because of the concept’s immense success around the league, but it makes a lot of sense for their particular situation, too.
The relative simplicity of Duo could significantly help a Jets offensive line that has struggled with communication over the past few years and will likely include three new starters this year. When watching film of the Jets’ run game in recent years, I’ve noticed major issues with their communication on zone plays; they often leave players unblocked due to linemen constantly not knowing when to pick a defender up and when to leave them to a teammate.
Plus, the respect demanded by Aaron Rodgers should create plenty of light boxes for the Jets to run against. This is an advantage the Jets have not had in recent years with guys like Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold under center. Running Duo with a bad quarterback is difficult due to the traffic in the box. With Rodgers, though, the Jets can rely on Duo to pummel teams who decide to back off in respect of Rodgers.
Per Tice’s data, teams ran Duo only 702 times through Week 12, making up only 8.4% of all designed run plays in the league over that span. That’s about twice per game for each team.
Teams haven’t caught on yet to how good this play is. Not that it’s a new play in football, but NFL teams aren’t using it as much as they should based on its success.
Considering the league-wide success of this play and the multiple reasons that it particularly makes sense for New York, the Jets should go against league tendencies and make Duo a fixture in their run game.
Innovation is what will put the Jets over the top
There are many ways the Jets can craft a unique offensive identity that optimizes trends around the league. The three ideas we mentioned today are just the tip of the iceberg.
Regardless of which adjustments the Jets choose to get it done, the bottom line is that I truly believe their best path forward is to explore new offensive philosophies instead of playing it safe and putting out an uninspired copy of the old Green Bay offense. That path might make the Jets competent, but if they want to win a Super Bowl, they need to get ahead of the curve and build something the rest of the league isn’t ready for.
