Two receivers NY Jets could potentially target via trade

The New York Jets have been linked with two receivers for several years

In the hunt for a No. 2 receiver, the New York Jets will likely explore all options. The free agent market could have several intriguing options, but they are equally likely to be unavailable due to the franchise tag or location preferences. The Jets’ No. 1 trade target, Davante Adams, seems much less likely to be moved now that Antonio Pierce is the Raiders’ appointed head coach.

There still may be an avenue on the trade market, though. The Jets have been linked to Denver Broncos wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy for several seasons. This year may just be the year that it could happen.

But should the Jets even pursue that avenue?

Availability

The Denver Broncos are in cap purgatory this offseason. They are $23.67 million in the red heading into 2024, with -$27.4 million in effective cap space. They are almost certain to move on from Russell Wilson this offseason, but the only way they can save any money by doing so is if they trade him after June 1, which would mean that they carry his full $35.4 million cap hit until then. If the Broncos release him with a post-June 1 designation, they will carry his full $35.4 million cap hit as dead cap with no cap savings.

Therefore, the Broncos may well be looking to shed cap. Sutton has a $17.4 million cap hit in 2024, while Jeudy’s is $13.0 million. Both of these players could return some sort of draft pick, which could lead Denver to try to move on.

Courtland Sutton

Basic info

• Age: 28.3
• Height: 6-foot-4
• Weight: 216 pounds
• College: Southern Methodist University
• Experience: 6 years (Drafted Round 2, Pick 8 by Denver in 2018)
• Teams: Broncos (2018-present)
• Current contract: four-year, $60 million contract extension in 2021; 2 years, $35.25 million remaining

Measurables

• Data from 2018 Combine (via Mockdraftable)
• Percentiles among all-time wide receiver prospects

• Height: 6’3⅜” (86th percentile)
• Weight: 218 pounds (86th)
• Wingspan: 79.25in (83rd)
• Arm length: 32.375in (62nd)
• Hand size: 9.75in (76th)
• 40-yard dash: 4.54s (37th)
• Vertical jump: 35.5in (50th)
• Broad jump: 124in (70th)
• 3-cone drill: 6.57s (96th)
• 20-yard shuttle: 4.11s (79th)
• 60-yard shuttle: 11.06s (91st)
• Bench press: 18 reps (77th)

Sutton earned a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 9.81/10.

Role

In many ways, the Broncos did not have a clear-cut No. 1 receiver in 2023. Sutton led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, but Jeudy had very similar totals of targets, receptions, and yards.

Sutton played 77.3% of his snaps as an outside receiver in 2023 with 21.7% in the slot. In his career with Denver, he has played on the outside 83.5% of the time.

In 2023, Sutton’s role was split pretty evenly around the field; 23% of his targets were deep (64th percentile), 29.9% intermediate (41st), 43.7% short (51st), and 3.4% behind the line of scrimmage (1st).

Overall, his 13.0 average depth of target ranked 20th out of 70 qualified receivers (min. 60 targets). That was somewhat shorter than Jeudy’s 13.6 ADOT (16th), suggesting that both receivers were used on deep balls pretty often. That was largely because Russell Wilson had the eighth-highest deep target rate (13.4%) among 38 qualified quarterbacks.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, here is a look at the distribution of Sutton’s route tree in 2023 based on the percentage of his routes run (all routes, not just targeted routes) that were classified as each route type.

2023 performance

Touchdown machine

Sutton tied for fourth among receivers with 10 touchdowns in 2023. He had a receiving touchdown in five consecutive games from Weeks 6-10. Still, this was the first time in his career that Sutton exceeded six touchdown catches, and he had just 14 total touchdowns in his first five years in the league.

Solid efficiency

The Broncos’ offense had below-average efficiency in 2023, ranking 19th in offensive DVOA (-1.6%), including 19th in pass DVOA (-3.8%). (DVOA is a measure of efficiency adjusted for game context and opponent.)

With that as a comparison, Sutton was incredibly efficient, ranking 13th out of 71 qualified receivers with a 15.6% DVOA. He also ranked 18th with 210 DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, a metric similar to baseball’s WAR measuring the yardage accumulated over what would be expected from a replacement player).

Sutton was a reasonably efficient receiver, ranking 36th with 1.66 yards per route run. That included 8.6 yards per target (28th) and 0.17 EPA per target (41st).

Mixed hands

On one hand, Sutton was excellent on contested catches in 2023, ranking seventh at 57.1% (12-for-21). His 65.6% catch rate ranked 28th, and his 7.5% catch rate over expected was the ninth-best among receivers. He posted 6.8 receptions over expected, ranking 11th-best.

For his career, though, Sutton has caught 46.7% of his contested catches, which is above the 2023 receiver average (44.3%) but certainly not elite.

Furthermore, Sutton’s 10.6% drop rate was the seventh-worst among qualified receivers. He also fumbled three times, tying for the second-most drops and fumbles (10) among receivers. Still, he was in good company, as the top 10 board in drops and fumbles included Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, and Garrett Wilson. His poor drop rate wasn’t unusual for his career, though, as he has a career 8.3% drop rate (the receiver average was 6.1% in 2023).

Not a YAC guy

Sutton ranked 60th out of 70 qualified receivers with 2.8 YAC per reception. For his career, he’s not much better at 3.3. At 6-foot-3 and 216 pounds with a 4.54 40-yard dash, running with the ball in his hands is not Sutton’s forte.

Injuries

Sutton has mostly remained healthy in his career, playing at least 15 games in five of his six seasons in the NFL. He played 16 games in 2023. In 2020, he missed all but one game with a torn MCL.

No. 2 receiver?

Is Sutton really a No. 2 receiver?

He has posted at least 700 receiving yards in each of his five full seasons and at least 58 catches in four of five, although he’s gone over 800 yards just twice, and that’s with Jeudy constantly at his side. Over his career, he averages 3.7 receptions for 52.6 yards per game, which would equal 63 catches for 894 yards over a 17-game season. That is No. 2 receiver territory.

If he’s going to drop a bunch of balls and isn’t historically all that great with contested catches, though, what value does he bring? Is he just going to be Allen Lazard, another big, clunky receiver without flexibility or route-running ability?

Is it his deep-ball ability? In his five full seasons in the NFL (2018-19, 2021-23), here are his stats and ranks on deep balls among 58 qualified receivers (min. 50 deep targets).

• 43 receptions (13th)
• 1,461 yards (17th)
• 12 touchdowns (T-12th)
• 104.2 targeted passer rating (16th)
• 39.1% catch rate (24th)
• 7.2% catch rate over expected (T-12th)
• 7.9 receptions over expected (9th)
• 301 receiving yards over expected (14th)
• 71 YAC over expected (24th)
• 13.3 yards per target (T-23rd)
• 43.6% tight-window rate (46th)

In other words, Sutton has been an above-average deep receiver throughout his career. He seems to be able to make difficult catches, though not necessarily with a lot of separation. That works fine for Aaron Rodgers, who excels in making pinpoint deep throws into narrow windows.

Therefore, Sutton could still do a good job of being a field-stretcher, complementing Garrett Wilson well in that way even if he’s not as good at contested catches as his 2023 season would indicate.

On the other hand, Sutton’s lumbering style could be somewhat concerning for the Jets. He doesn’t necessarily create a ton of separation deep and struggled to catch some balls that Russell Wilson put right on him.

When you think of a big-bodied target, you think of a player who can win at the catch point even without a ton of separation. Though Sutton had good deep numbers, there were a concerning number of times when he failed to hold onto a deep ball that he should have caught.

Flag check

Using Michael Nania’s assessment of what the Jets can learn from their hits and misses in free agency, let’s take a look at Sutton’s profile. Even though he would be a trade target, the same principle holds: is he likely to be more like D.J. Reed or Laken Tomlinson?

Green flags

Sutton has a stable floor for his production over an entire season. He’s posted at least 58 catches for 776 yards in his last four healthy seasons. Though his 72-catch, 1,112-yard breakout 2019 season may be an anomaly, he’s not likely to be a bust.

Furthermore, Sutton has played in less-than-ideal receiving situations. Even though he’s had Jeudy at his side, the Broncos’ quarterback situation has never been stable in his career. Over the last two seasons, Denver ranked 26th and 19th in pass DVOA. His top season came with an aging Joe Flacco and Drew Lock throwing him the football. He managed to post 64 catches for 830 yards on the disastrous Nathaniel Hackett-led Broncos offense in 2022.

If the Jets were to acquire Sutton, his cap hit would also be reasonable for his production. Per Over the Cap, he would have a $13.6 million cap hit in 2024 and $14 million in 2025. None of that money would be guaranteed, allowing some potential shifting of his contract. Entering his age-29 season, this is a very appropriate price point for the two years, and he is unlikely to fall off dramatically during the life of the contract.

Red flags

The biggest red flag for Sutton is his hands. He simply drops too many balls for comfort, and that’s been a problem for him throughout most of his career. He’s had two anomalies — he dropped 4% of his balls in 2019 and 1.7% in 2021 — but he’s coming off a season in which he dropped 10.6% of his passes, and that’s not an unusual occurrence.

After the nightmare of Lazard, Sutton comes with a big red flag for that reason. The film I showed above also screams Lazard. Remember, the Jets receiver had 60 catches for 788 yards and six touchdowns in 2022 — eerily similar to Sutton’s 59 catches for 777 yards and 10 scores in 2023.

Furthermore, as a receiver who doesn’t really win with route-running, Sutton’s hands are an even bigger concern. He needs to win at the catch point, and he often doesn’t. Although his catch rate over expected should be somewhat reassuring, the film seems to indicate that his hands are a legitimate issue even beyond his drops.

Jerry Jeudy

Basic info

• Age: 24.7
• Height: 6-foot-1
• Weight: 193 pounds
• College: Alabama
• Experience: 4 years (Drafted Round 1, Pick 15 by Denver in 2020)
• Teams: Broncos (2020-present)
• Current contract: fifth-year option; one year, $12.99 million

Measurables

• Data from 2020 Combine (via Mockdraftable)
• Percentiles among all-time wide receiver prospects

• Height: 6’1” (48th percentile)
• Weight: 193 pounds (29th)
• Arm length: 32.125in (55th)
• Hand size: 9.5in (59th)
• 40-yard dash: 4.45s (70th)
• Vertical jump: 35in (44th)
• Broad jump: 120in (43rd)
• 20-yard shuttle: 4.53s (3rd)

Jeudy earned a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 6.78/10.

Role

The Broncos use Jeudy more consistently as a deep threat than Sutton. His 13.6 ADOT ranked 16th out of 70 qualified receivers, and his 23.8% deep rate ranked 22nd. Still, he also had a reasonable number of receptions behind the line of scrimmage, ranking 27th at 14.3% of his targets.

In 2023, Jeudy played 59.1% of his snaps from the slot, the 12th-highest rate among receivers.

Here is Jeudy’s route distribution from 2023 per NFL Next Gen Stats (all routes, not just when targeted).

Surprisingly, Jeudy ran go routes a lot less than Sutton, even though it was his most common route type. He ran many more hitches than Sutton, though, which makes sense given his slighter frame.

2023 performance

Worse than Sutton

For the player who was supposed to be the Broncos’ No. 1 receiver, Jeudy had a disappointing season. He posted just 54 receptions for 758 yards and two scores. His yards per route run was nearly identical to Sutton’s (1.65), but he had just an 86.3 targeted passer rating because of a 2:3 TD:INT ratio on balls thrown his way.

No contested catches

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Jeudy’s -3.8% catch rate over expected ranked 59th out of 71 qualified receivers, as did his -3.3 receptions over expected. His -57 yards over expected ranked 57th.

This may have been partially due to Jeudy’s futility on contested balls. He caught just 3 of 13 (23.1%), the fourth-worst ratio among receivers. Coupled with his worse-than-average 6.9% drop rate, it appears that Jeudy is not very reliable as a receiver.

Good YAC

Jeudy ranked eighth among receivers with 5.9 YAC per reception. That included 54 YAC over expected, ranked 24th at the position. 44.7% of his yardage came from YAC, the 17th-highest rate among receivers. Many of the receivers in this category played a high rate of slot snaps, which makes sense with Jeudy’s profile.

Rest of his career

Jeudy’s best statistical season came in 2022 when he caught 68 balls for 987 yards and six touchdowns. Of his three full seasons, 2023 was his worst year, as he recorded lows in yards, yards per catch, yards per route run, and contested catch rate.

Issues with hands are not new for Jeudy. He has a 10.2% career drop rate. Neither are contested-catch issues, as he’s at 33.3% for his career, far worse than the 44.3% receiver average in 2023.

Jeudy has always been a high YAC receiver, as his career average is 5.6.

Furthermore, as a deep threat, Jeudy has caught just 21 of 70 career targets (30%) for a -6.7% catch rate over expected, -4.7 receptions over expected, and -48 receiving yards over expected.

Durability

While Jeudy frequently shows up on the injury report, he’s played at least 15 games in three of his four seasons. The exception was in 2021 when he played in 10 games, missing six due to a high ankle sprain. Overall, he’s played in 57 of 67 possible career games.

Flag check

As with Sutton, we’ll evaluate Jeudy for green and red flags that could determine his success or failure as a Jets acquisition.

Green flags

As with Sutton, Jeudy seems to have a stable floor. He’s posted at least 52 catches and 758 yards in his three full seasons. For his career, he averages 3.7 catches for 53.8 yards and 0.192 touchdowns per game, which translates to 63 catches for 915 yards and 3 touchdowns over a 17-game season.

Joe Blewett’s predraft profile of Jeudy emphasized some intriguing strengths that he can bring to the position. This is what he wrote.

• Solid long speed
• Played in a pro-style system
• Acceleration
• Fast into and out of breaks
• Sharp/crisp routes
• Attacks leverage
• Works into blind spots
• Keeps feet under frame very well
• No wasted steps in routes
• Commits to breaks
• Underrated YAC ability
• Kills off man defenders
• Forces CBS to open hips/take false steps
• Stop/start ability
• Makes tough catches
• Variety of press and secondary releases
• Willing blocker
• Patient
• Reads zone coverages and knows where to sit
• Press release
• Works to defeat arms
• Have seen him point out blitzes
• Knows when/how to alter speed in routes
• Reduces body vs. press

That’s a lot of positivity when it comes to route-running and understanding defenses in space. Pro Football Focus backs that up with Jeudy’s open metrics.

As with Sutton, Jeudy has also played his career in a tumultuous quarterbacking environment. His best season in 2022 came with an offense ranked 26th in pass DVOA. Perhaps he can succeed once more under Hackett.

Red flags

As with Sutton, the biggest question is once again Jeudy’s hands. Here were the weaknesses Blewett noted in his profile.

• Needs to maintain speed when locating football
• Thin build
• Focus drops show up
• Some recoil at snap
• Would like to see him eat up more space vs. press coverage
• Isn’t a 50/50 ball type WR
• Physicality vs. NFL DB’s
• Physical Strength vs. press in NFL?

The notes about physicality and press coverage have held up in the NFL, as Jeudy’s utilization in the slot likely showcases some struggles with press coverage and physicality. Furthermore, Jeudy’s inability to win at 50-50 balls has been magnified at the NFL level; he is one of the league’s worst contested-catch receivers.

Overall, Jeudy’s limitation to the slot is a big concern. The Jets seek more versatility from their receivers, but Jeudy will not provide it.

Furthermore, coming off the worst season of his career and on a one-year deal, is it worth trading for Jeudy now? Just as there is a red flag when a player has a one-year improvement, there is concern with acquiring a player coming off a down year.

Verdict

Of the two receivers, Sutton makes far more sense to acquire than Jeudy. He is much more physical, plays outside, and shows more ability to go up and make the difficult catches. He’s also a surprisingly good deep threat considering his lack of long speed. His lumbering style is somewhat of a concern, but his stable floor makes him a decent bet.

Meanwhile, Jeudy simply does not seem to fit what the Jets need from a receiver. His reputation as a deep threat does not match his production on the field. He can’t catch the tough ones and misses on many easy ones, too. He plays in the slot on more than half of his reps, further diminishing his value. He’s constantly on the injury report, and even though he usually plays, that’s something to worry about with him.

That being said, I don’t think either of these players is an ideal fit for the Jets. Mike Evans remains the top target, but paying more for Davante Adams would be more worthwhile than bringing in Sutton for something like a third-round pick. Jeudy hasn’t shown that much more value than Tyler Boyd and Curtis Samuel, but it will cost more to acquire him.

Both of these players can bring a floor of roughly 55 catches for 750 yards, but their ceiling is uncertain. That’s not true No. 2 receiver production. They both have consistent questions about their hands that are too reminiscent of Lazard. Although they’ve been more productive than Lazard for a longer period, the risk that they come in as drop machines is too great.

I would not count on Sutton or Jeudy as possible No. 2 receiver acquisitions.