The signs seem to point to Aiyuk’s possible availability for the New York Jets
With the Super Bowl complete, all New York Jets fans’ eyes are fully turned toward the offseason. One Super Bowl competitor may be squarely in their sights.
The whispers have begun that San Francisco 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk could be available this offseason. Asked if he hopes to stay in San Francisco, Aiyuk said, “If that’s the right move, yeah.” His girlfriend posted a Tiktok video stating, “This might have been the last day we touched foot on Levi’s Stadium… because we might not be out here next season.”
That has led to a frenzy of speculation that Aiyuk could be traded. He is slated to play on the $14.1 million fifth-year option in 2024. Niners general manager John Lynch said that he would want to have Aiyuk going forward but explained that it may be a salary cap puzzle to resolve.
Suppose that Aiyuk does become available. Should the New York Jets do everything they can to acquire him?
Basic info
- Age: 25.9
- Height: 6-foot
- Weight: 200 pounds
- College: Arizona State
- Experience: 4 years (Drafted Round 1, Pick 25 by San Francisco in 2020)
- Teams: 49ers (2020-present)
- Previous contract: 1 year, $14.1 million (fifth-year option)
Measurables
- Data from 2020 Combine (via Mockdraftable)
- Percentiles among all-time wide receiver prospects
- Height: 6’0″ (32nd percentile)
- Weight: 205 pounds (59th)
- Arm length: 33.5in (89th)
- Hand size: 9.75in (76th)
- 40-yard dash: 4.5s (54th)
- Vertical jump: 40″ (92nd)
- Broad jump: 128″ (86th)
- Bench press: 11 reps (20th)
Aiyuk posted a Relative Athletic Score of 8.44/10.
Role
Even though Deebo Samuel is the more dynamic playmaker overall, Aiyuk has been the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver over the past two seasons. He played 82% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps in 2023, ahead of Samuel (74%) but behind George Kittle (89%).
In 2023, Aiyuk played 75.9% of his snaps out wide and 23.8% in the slot. He averaged 6.3 targets, 4.7 receptions, and 83.9 receiving yards per game. By comparison, Samuel averaged 5.8 targets, 4.0 receptions, and 59.5 receiving yards per game, although he also averaged 15.0 rush yards per game, giving him 74.5 scrimmage yards per game. Still, Aiyuk gained more overall yardage even though Samuel out-touched him 97 to 75.
Aiyuk had an average depth of target of 14.3, which was the ninth-highest out of 70 qualified receivers (min. 60 targets). He was clearly San Francisco’s downfield weapon.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, here is a look at the distribution of Aiyuk’s route tree in 2023 based on the percentage of his routes run (all routes, not just targeted routes) that were classified as each route type.
2023 performance
Major deep threat
Aiyuk averaged 17.9 yards per reception in 2023, the highest mark of his career by 3.3 yards. He caught 14 of 21 deep targets (66.7%) for 437 yards and five touchdowns, ranking in the top seven among receivers in deep receptions, yards, and touchdowns. His 149.3 targeted passer rating on deep targets led all receivers, and he also caught 3 of 4 contested targets in that area of the field.
Aiyuk also feasted in the deep-intermediate part of the field. On passes between 10 and 19 yards downfield, he caught 33 of 48 targets (68.8%) for 631 yards, ranking in the top seven among receivers in targets, receptions, yards, yards per reception, and yards per route run.
Strong hands and contested catches
Considering the depth of his targets, it is all the more impressive that Aiyuk finished seventh among qualified receivers with a 74.3% catch rate. This was in large part due to his 2.6% drop rate, which was the fourth-best among receivers. He coupled that with catching 61.5% of his contested catches (8-for-13), which tied for second-best.
This triumvirate of skills is incredibly impressive: Aiyuk was a destructive downfield threat who caught everything he should have and many of the difficult balls.
Excellent route-running
Aiyuk was in a class of his own when it came to on-ball production, but he was also an excellent route-runner.
No other receiver in the NFL combined Aiyuk’s knack for separation with his production. It’s worth questioning whether the separation was a product of scheme more than Aiyuk himself. Still, Samuel is considerably below him in both separation and production, leading to the conclusion that Aiyuk may just be an excellent separator.
The film supports that; watch him create separation on these plays with crisp footwork, good understanding of space, and suddenness. While there were definitely plays where Aiyuk benefited from scheme to come wide open over the middle, he created much of his own space, often turning defenders completely around.
Additionally, Aiyuk adjusts well to the ball in the air, making him particularly quarterback-friendly.
Above-average YAC
Although YAC is not Aiyuk’s primary method of gaining yardage, he’s not a total slouch in that area. His 4.6 YAC per reception ranked 28th out of 70 qualifiers, still an above-average mark.
Because the 49ers asked Aiyuk to pick up big chunks through the air, less of his yardage came after the catch than Samuel’s or Christian McCaffrey’s. Still, even with his mediocre speed, Aiyuk does more than just get by in this area.
Roasted press coverage
Any NFL receiver faces a concern about their performance against press coverage. The Jets have struggled against it over the last several seasons and would want a complement for Garrett Wilson who could beat press. Not only did Aiyuk do so, he annihilated press coverage.
Aiyuk caught 14 of 22 press targets (63.6%) for 299 yards (21.4 yards per reception), 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a targeted passer rating of 146.8. He posted a 9.2% catch rate over expected and ranked second among all receivers with 1.15 EPA per press target.
Quiet postseason
Compared to his highly efficient and productive regular season, Aiyuk’s performance in the playoffs was disappointing. He caught just 9 of 19 targets (47.4%) for 149 yards and 1 touchdown. He still averaged 16.6 yards per reception, showcasing that same downfield threat, but just could not do it as consistently. What happened?
Aiyuk’s first target in the playoffs partially demonstrates why he struggled. He ran a good route, but there was zone coverage underneath him that should have prevented Brock Purdy from targeting him. Instead, Purdy expected man coverage and threw the ball, leading to what should have been an easy pick. Throughout the playoffs, Purdy was consistently off-target on passes toward Aiyuk.
Still, Aiyuk carried over a lot of the same suddenness and two-way go ability from the regular season. He was open for a potential deep touchdown in the Super Bowl, but pressure forced Purdy to overthrow him by several yards. On another play, Purdy’s hesitation and late throw allowed Trent McDuffie to break up a ball when Aiyuk originally had leverage.
Overall, it didn’t appear as if Aiyuk did anything all that different in the playoffs. Purdy was simply unable to find him when he did during the regular season.
Comparing 2023 performance to previous track record
Aiyuk has taken another step forward statistically in each of his four NFL seasons.
- 2020: 60 catches, 64.5% catch rate, 748 yards, 12.5 yards per reception, 5 TDs
- 2021: 56 catches, 67.5% catch rate, 816 yards, 14.6 yards per reception, 5 TDs
- 2022: 78 catches, 69.6% catch rate, 1,015 yards, 13.0 yards per reception, 8 TDs
- 2023: 75 catches, 74.3% catch rate, 1,342 yards, 17.9 yards per reception, 7 TDs
For a player who’s still only 25 years old, that year-over-year development into a superstar is the ideal trajectory.
Still, there were a few parts of his 2023 game that were outliers compared to the rest of his career.
Hands are average
Despite Aiyuk’s strong season in holding on to the ball in 2023, he wasn’t quite as great in his prior three seasons. He recorded drop rates of 7.7%, 4.4%, and 6.7% from 2020-22; two of those three were worse than the 6.1% receiver average from 2023 (and even further above the 5.5% average from 2022).
Furthermore, Aiyuk has gone back and forth with contested catch success. He caught just 2 of 14 (14.3%) contested targets in his rookie year, then followed that up by going 15 of 28 (53.6%) the following season. In 2022, he went 9 for 23 (39.1%). The NFL receiver average in 2023 was 42.3%, and Aiyuk’s career mark is 42.2%.
Which version of Aiyuk will come out? It’s worth noting that he caught just 1 of 5 contested targets in the 2023 playoffs.
Deep target?
Aiyuk’s major breakout season coincided with a huge boost in ADOT. As a rookie, his ADOT was just 9.9. It increased to 10.4 in 2021 and 11.1 in 2022 before ballooning to 14.6 in 2023.
In 2022, though, Aiyuk’s numbers on deep targets were quite poor. He caught just 3 of 13 (23.1%) for 93 yards and two touchdowns. In 2021, he was at 1 of 7 (14.3%) for 37 yards, and as a rookie, he went 5-for-12 (41.7%) for 165 yards and three touchdowns. In other words, from 2020-22, Aiyuk went 9-for-32 (28.1%) on deep targets, and then in 2023, he suddenly broke out to go 14-for-21. What changed?
The short answer: his quarterback. Here are the deep passing numbers of Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy from 2020-23.
- Garoppolo 2020-22: 20-for-71 (28.2%), 702 yards, 9.9 yards per attempt, 4 TD, 6 INT
- Purdy 2023: 30-for-47 (63.8%), 956 yards, 20.3 yards per attempt, 11 TD, 1 INT
That difference is almost unfathomable. Purdy threw for 200 more deep yards in one season than Garoppolo had in the three seasons prior. Therefore, Aiyuk’s breakout makes sense. The 49ers finally began to utilize him in a way that truly highlighted his strengths.
Note that because Aiyuk does not have blazing speed, he was forced to win deep through route-running. It makes his breakout seem that much more legitimate.
Durability
Aiyuk has participated in 62 of a possible 67 career regular-season games. He missed four games as a rookie due to a hamstring injury and a high-ankle sprain. In the three years since then, he’s missed just one game — a 2023 matchup against the Giants. Aiyuk appears on the injury list from time to time with various ailments but always suits up.
Scheme fit
Aiyuk would be an ideal fit opposite Wilson. He showed his ability as a deep threat in 2023, has serious route-running ability, and isn’t too shabby after the catch. Even though his route distribution doesn’t necessarily match Aaron Rodgers’ perfectly, as he doesn’t run many flat routes or crossers, his ability as a vertical threat means Rodgers could just toss it up to him. That would allow Wilson to feast in the intermediate area of the field, which is where he shines the most.
Projected cost
This is where the road gets dicey. What would the cost be to acquire Aiyuk, both in terms of trade value and contract extension?
An easy comparison is A.J. Brown, who was traded from Tennessee to Philadelphia on the night of the 2022 NFL Draft for the No. 18 (first round) and No. 101 (third round) overall picks. Brown was entering the final year of his rookie deal and subsequently signed a four-year, $100 million extension with the Eagles.
Although the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart is considered obsolete by analytical standards, recent trades indicate that NFL teams still use it as a basis for trades involving draft picks. According to the Johnson chart, the No. 18 overall pick is worth 900 points, and the No. 101 pick is worth 96 points. The Jets’ No. 10 overall pick is worth 1,300 points. Therefore, in a nearly identical scenario, the Jets would give up the No. 10 overall pick for Aiyuk and the No. 63 overall pick (second-rounder, 276 points).
That would be essentially an even one-for-one trade based on the Brown trade, but it seems unlikely that all the Jets would give up is 1.5 rounds of draft positioning. More likely, a trade for Aiyuk would require the No. 10 overall pick straight up. The contract would probably start at Brown’s four-year, $100 million deal and adjust subject to Tee Higgins’, Michael Pittman’s, and Mike Evans’ deals this offseason.
Can the Jets afford to give up that kind of draft capital and money? I already discussed how difficult it will be for them to afford their 2023 needs. Yes, Aiyuk is only on the fifth-year option, and an extension could push the money into the future. Still, the team needs two starting tackles, likely a starting interior offensive lineman, and a host of other positions. Can they give up their cheapest asset for a very expensive one?
Verdict
This is a close call for the Jets. Aiyuk is exactly the kind of player worth spending on. He’s young, mostly durable, just entering his prime, and an excellent route-runner whose skills are unlikely to diminish anytime soon. Still, his projected cost could completely hamstring the Jets’ other plans. What should they do?
I just can’t recommend making such a trade in good conscience. Perhaps Aiyuk could have a Ja’Marr Chase effect for the Jets and allow them to survive with a shoddy offensive line. However, look what has happened to Joe Burrow in two of his four NFL seasons behind a line that gets him hit a lot. Rodgers does not have that mobility anymore. Even his ability to get rid of the ball quickly will not offset the leaky front five the Jets put out week after week in 2023.
How are the Jets going to fill their offensive line without a first-round pick? Sure, they can move Alijah Vera-Tucker to tackle and keep Laken Tomlinson, but that still leaves them with massive holes at tackle and guard. With Tomlinson still in tow, it would be that much more important to acquire a top-tier offensive lineman. Would the Jets be able to fill those needs in free agency alone?
Perhaps they could find an interior starter in the draft. Starting interior offensive linemen, even rookie ones, can often be found on Day 2. Still, do the Jets really want to have an interior offensive line of Tomlinson, second-year center Joe Tippmann, and a rookie? And what are they going to do at the other tackle spot?
I just think it’s not realistic to acquire Aiyuk, as elite as he is. Maybe Joe Douglas could make it work financially if he extended Aiyuk and pushed almost all his money into the future. Still, that would make it even less likely that the Jets could extend Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Jermaine Johnson, Vera-Tucker, and Breece Hall in the near future.
The Jets’ need for multiple offensive linemen and a top-tier receiver seriously limits their options this offseason. Unfortunately, they will most likely pass on Aiyuk even if he becomes available. They simply must hope that Aiyuk isn’t traded to Buffalo, Kansas City, or one of the other heavyweights in the AFC.
