Even with more draft flexibility, the New York Jets should not fall for the hype
The New York Jets currently need playmakers on their roster. They have a choice of two dynamic draft prospects with elite YAC ability. Both players made their living in college by running screens and flat routes.
One is a projected top-15 pick.
The other is a second or third-round prospect.
And that’s why the Jets should stay far away from Georgia tight end Brock Bowers with the No. 10 overall pick — or wherever their first-rounder winds up.
Bowers is basically a larger version of Western Kentucky wide receiver Malachi Corley.
Their per-game statistics are eerily similar, too.
- Bowers: 5.6 receptions, 71.7 yards, 0.60 TD, 12.8 yards per reception, 8.7 YAC per reception, 6.5 average depth of target, 22.2% contested-catch rate, 5.1% drop rate
- Corley:Â 6.6 receptions, 82.1 yards, 0.92 TD, 12.5 yards per reception, 8.6 YAC per reception, 5.5 ADOT, 23.5% contested-catch rate, 7.1% drop rate
If Bowers is a big slot receiver, why take him in the first round when you can trade down and select Corley in the second or third round?
Brock Bowers Film
What stands out on Bowers’ film is his lack of varied route-running. Most of his big plays came on flat routes. Sure, it’s exciting to see a big man run people over and make defenders miss, but is that sole skill worth a top-10 pick?
Watch Tyler Conklin running routes compared to Bowers. Bowers did not run the 40-yard dash, but he is presumed to be a 4.5 guy. Conklin ran a 4.8. Still, which guy would you rather one-on-one against a linebacker?
Conklin cannot do anything close to what Bowers does YAC-wise, but can Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall or even Xavier Gipson?
While Bowers can do something most other tight ends can’t, his skills aren’t as unusual when you look at the total body of skill position players in the NFL. He doesn’t have enough other skills to make selecting him at No. 10 worthwhile. Expanding upon this point, the Jets need specific skills in their receiving corps to complement Garrett Wilson — contested-catch ability, deep threat, and the ability to beat man coverage; Bowers offers none of those.
If Conklin is a better tight end than Bowers, then Bowers is certainly not worth a top-10 pick.
If a WR's route tree consisted of screens and flat routes, no matter how dominant they were, there would be serious questions about their projection at the NFL level. So why is Brock Bowers different?
— Rivka Boord (@rivka_boord) March 19, 2024
Perhaps the Jets can afford Bowers as a luxury pick if they sign Mike Williams. However, even then, I would argue that a tackle or wide receiver makes more sense in the first round. The Jets have two tackles in their 30s on one-year deals, one of whom is all but guaranteed to miss some time; tackle is still the most obvious position of need.
If the Jets do not sign Williams, they certainly should not fall for the Bowers trap. He cannot be their No. 2 weapon behind Wilson. This is not to say he can’t become a useful player in the right offense, but that offense won’t be the Jets’. If YAC is their desired skill (which, I would argue, it should not be), they can still go ahead and select Corley later in the draft for a better value.
Bowers is the proverbial bright and shiny object that dazzles fans and might dazzle some GMs if they’re not thinking clearly. What the Jets need is more nuts and bolts like OLs to cover for the high injury risks that they have brought in.
Not sure comparing a guy who plays in the SEC with a guy from W. Kentucky is valid. Still I agree, I’d rather trade back and take Mims or Brian Thomas Jr.
it maybe so that Bowers doesn’t have that much right off the line of scrimmage, if he is put in motion in a variety of ways, he is explosive! it is up to a smart OC to create a game plan to exploit his talents and make sure he is targeted 10 times a game.
Agreed. This is my biggest fear now that we signed Williams.
Still need to draft the best OT or WR on the board at 10, trade down, or I wouldn’t hate the trade up for MHJ.