Saying Robert Saleh is on the hot seat for the New York Jets is practically like saying water is wet. The headlines to such an effect are nothing more than clickbait. Of course, Saleh is on the hot seat in his fourth year as the Jets’ head coach with an 18-33 record. This year is all or nothing for the Jets, and they may even need to win a playoff game for Saleh to keep his job.
Still, one narrative that may go under the radar is how many other AFC East coaches may also be in jeopardy. There are other teams in the division with pressure to win, teams who have made the playoffs but faced heartbreak for multiple consecutive seasons.
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Look at Sean McDermott. Many consider McDermott one of the best head coaches in the NFL. However, he also has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Josh Allen. Winning the division for four consecutive seasons only to falter at an early stage of the playoffs doesn’t bode well for a head coach. Just as Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat in Dallas, coaches who can’t get over the hump sometimes get a limited shelf life.
And the Bills’ roster is more flawed than in past seasons. Their receiving corps is full of unknowns. Their safety room, which used to be the linchpin of their defense, has a journeyman and a rookie starting. All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano is coming off a leg fracture. Von Miller showed signs of serious decline last season, and they don’t have another top edge rusher besides Greg Rousseau.
While it’s never smart to underestimate a Josh Allen-led team, you have to wonder how the Bills’ brain trust will react if the team fails to reach at least the AFC Championship again. Perhaps they’ll see this season as a retooling year. After all, many thought it would be after they traded Stefon Diggs and let several key pieces leave in free agency. That could give McDermott a pass. But if Buffalo underachieves, who knows what will happen with their head coach?
That applies to Miami head coach Mike McDaniel, as well. As big of an offensive genius as McDaniel is, his teams have won nothing. In 2022, you could blame that on Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries, but that wasn’t the case in 2023. While losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs is normally nothing to be ashamed of, it’s how they lost, coupled with their lack of success against winning teams, that calls the Dolphins’ future into question.
Miami is also in a situation where many bloated contracts start hitting high cap numbers in the coming years. Despite locking up their still-young quarterback on a long-term deal, they’re really in a shorter-term window. Tyreek Hill’s cap hit goes from $18.4 million to $31.1 million in 2025. Bradley Chubb’s goes from $15.9 million to $29.3 million, and while none of his base salary is guaranteed, it will still cost them $27.4 million to release him. Tua’s goes from $9.5 million to $39.4 million.
That’s nearly $100 million of the cap invested into three players. Other players, like Jalen Ramsey and Terron Armstead, have non-guaranteed money that could result in a release or restructure. Still, those players are among the tops at their respective positions, and losing them will hurt the Dolphins even further.
Therefore, Miami is far more all-in in 2024 than it appears. Perhaps they can perform cap gymnastics to keep their cap manageable in 2025, but that’ll just delay the inevitable. Miami is a couple of years ahead of the Jets in terms of big contracts coming due.
If the Dolphins lose in the first round of the playoffs again, how long will McDonald’s leash be?
Of course, McDaniel and McDermott get the benefit of the doubt far more than Saleh. They’ve proven a lot more at the NFL level. But in a way, McDaniel could be in a similar position to Saleh: his side of the ball is elite, but the team as a whole has underachieved. (Incidentally, I don’t see anyone criticizing McDaniel for focusing on the offense and leaving the defense for his coordinator.)
This season is pivotal for three AFC East teams. While Saleh’s seat is likely the hottest, he’s far from the only coach with a lot to lose. It’s simply a green-colored echo chamber making Saleh seem like the only one.
