Early in the New York Jets’ 2024 season, it’s safe to say that Garrett Wilson’s production has been a disappointment. The third-year receiver has caught just 15 of 26 targets (57.7%) for 150 yards and one touchdown.
Aaron Rodgers explained this in simple terms: defenses are doubling Wilson regularly, making it difficult to throw him the football. A 6-foot, 192-pound (soaking wet) receiver will struggle to beat double coverage. Still, that has opened up holes for other players, allowing Rodgers to spread the ball around.
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To an extent, this is true. Defenses have been slanting coverage Wilson’s way. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky demonstrated this.
Rodgers said after the game “all 3 games teams are focused on taking away Garrett Wilson”
This is how. Rodgers has the answer.
Wilsons impact far greater than stats for @nyjets offense#nfllive @Espngreeny @richeisen @espnbob pic.twitter.com/9m7er1Dlk3
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) September 20, 2024
However, Rodgers and Wilson have left plenty of meat on the bone when Wilson is not double-covered. For example, on these incompletions, one or the other did not do their job.
On these two plays, Wilson inexplicably did not get his second foot down. The first is far more egregious than the second, but receivers must have the awareness to drag the second toe. This is not close to an Isaiah Likely situation.
Then there’s just the outright drop. It looks like Wilson was not expecting this ball to come at him so quickly.
Here you have bad throws from Rodgers on what should have been completions.
On this play, they’re both to blame. Wilson ran a bad route with multiple steps of dead time at the top. Rodgers double-clutched because of that dead time, then threw the ball too far inside, resulting in a tipped ball.
Finally, you have the miscommunication or lack of sync.
More importantly, there were plays where Wilson had one-on-one coverage and Rodgers inexplicably did not pull the trigger. At times he was even looking in Wilson’s direction and poised to throw, then pulled it down.
Wilson was clearly open on the corner route. Rodgers was looking right at it. Asked about it after the game, he claimed the timing was off. It certainly does not look like it.
The second the safety stayed low and covered Brenden Bates’ (No. 84) route, Rodgers knew he had one-on-one coverage with Wilson against Gonzalez on a go route. There was ample space for Rodgers to throw it up in the deep middle of the field and allow Wilson to run under it for a likely touchdown. Rodgers loaded up as if to throw it — and then just didn’t.
That brings us to the upcoming Broncos game.
The Jets should not hesitate to attack Patrick Surtain II with Garrett Wilson
Denver signed cornerback Patrick Surtain II to a four-year, $96 million deal in the offseason, making him the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL. As is befitting of his price tag, Sutton usually goes one-on-one with the opponent’s top receiver. He even follows them into the slot, which is less common in today’s NFL.
Christian Gonzalez stuck with Wilson for much of the Patriots game, but he also had help over the top more often than not. That is not the case with Surtain. Against Mike Evans and D.K. Metcalf, two of the better receivers in the NFL, Surtain mostly singled up. In fact, through three games, Denver has played split-safety (two-high) coverage just 29.2% of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.
That means Wilson will likely get his one-on-one opportunities. Even if one of the most highly-reputed cornerbacks in the NFL is opposite him, that should not prevent Rodgers from taking shots his way.
There are two reasons for this. First, Surtain has not quite been able to replicate his dominant 2022 season ever since. In 2023, out of 83 qualified cornerbacks (min. 350 coverage snaps), Surtain ranked 51st in yards per target (7.88) and 41st in yards per cover snap (1.048). In total, he allowed the 16th-most yards among corners (701), albeit on a high volume of targets (89).
To start 2024, Surtain has a far better yards per cover snap mark (0.577) but has allowed virtually the same yards per target (7.87). Still, he has a 97.4 targeted passer rating and has been called for five penalties, including two defensive holding and two defensive pass interference calls.
Surtain’s 45.2 Pro Football Focus coverage grade hints at something that shows up on film: his numbers should be worse than they are. His penalties are a part of that.
Surtain is undoubtedly an aggressive press corner who excels at disrupting routes with his hands. When he can’t get his hands on the receiver, though, there are plays to be made. In particular, Metcalf gave him some difficulties. Here are some plays where Metcalf beat Surtain on the route, whether or not he received the ball.
Surtain wears No. 2, and Metcalf wears No. 14.
Furthermore, when Wilson went up against Surtain in 2023, the results were similar to Surtain’s this year: good numbers but not necessarily good tape. According to PFF, Wilson caught just two of six targets for 22 yards against Surtain, including one drop and one interception.
Here’s what actually happened in that game.
Wilson’s slight stutter froze Surtain’s feet, giving him a clear step. With a decent throw, this is at least a 35-yard gain.
Wilson wiped away Surtain’s punch and then stemmed his route heavily inside before turning to the corner. A better throw on time and this is a touchdown. There was plenty of space in the back left corner of the end zone.
Surtain’s heavy outside leverage made it easy for Wilson to gain a step inside. Surtain was clearly chasing on this play. While Zach Wilson did not read the play in that direction, there’s a good chance Rodgers would have.
On this interception, I would argue that Wilson should have done a better job trying to break up the pass. But he had no chance to catch the ball thanks to a terrible throw from Zach Wilson. This throw should have been toward the sideline; Wilson had plenty of space to make a back-shoulder catch. From how Wilson started to wall off Surtain with his arm, he clearly expected the ball there. Whether or not it would have been a completion, it certainly should not have been an interception.
Suppose Zach Wilson had just made a better throw on the stutter-and-go, resulting in an easy completion. Wilson would have had another catch for roughly 35 yards. That means his stat line would have been three receptions on six targets for 57 yards against Surtain. Looks different on paper, doesn’t it?
And that doesn’t include the touchdown Wilson should have had. How about four catches on six targets for 64 yards and a touchdown?
Targeting Wilson does not mean force-feeding him the ball. The Jets’ other weapons have begun to show up, making this far less necessary than in 2023. But Rodgers likes to throw to his top receiver; he should do so when the opportunity arises.
And it will.
