The New York Jets are 7.5-point favorites over the Denver Broncos for a reason. Headlined by quarterback Bo Nix, the Broncos simply have not played well offensively this season.
Nix has yet to throw a touchdown pass, is tied for the fourth-most interceptions in the NFL (4), and has the third-worst passer rating (61.8) and yards per attempt (5.3). He also ranks seventh-worst in success rate (37.8%) and sixth-worst in EPA per dropback (-0.26).
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The Broncos’ running backs haven’t been much better. They rank 27th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.6), 25th in rush yards over expected per carry (-0.3), 30th in EPA per carry (-0.30), and 30th in success rate (31.5%). Accordingly, Denver’s 45.1 Pro Football Focus team run-blocking grade is the worst in the NFL.
Despite the brutal numbers from their running backs and run-blocking, the Broncos’ overall rushing statistics are mediocre in virtually every area (19th in yards per rush attempt, for example). The primary driver of that is Nix, whose main positive contribution to the offense has been his legs.
In total, Nix has 18 rushes for 107 yards and two touchdowns. Those 107 rushing yards rank seventh-most among quarterbacks. Ten of his 18 attempts have been on scrambles, and six have been on designed runs (the other two were a sneak and kneel-down).
A stunt on the right side of the defensive line allowed Nix to scramble out in that direction. While the linebacker was put in a tough spot defending the scramble drill, No. 0 in the middle of the field was extremely late to come over once Nix rolled to the right. He also completely declined to pursue Nix.
On this play, No. 95 got complacent in the middle of the defensive line once Nix scrambled to his right. While he may not have been able to stop Nix anyway, that’s why there was a hole in the middle for Nix to run through.
Unfortunately, the Jets have struggled against quarterback runs in recent years. Since 2022, they’ve allowed the ninth-highest EPA per attempt (0.25) and the 10th-highest explosive rate (23.6%) on scrambles and designed quarterback runs.
This season, Will Levis had three scrambles for 36 yards against the Jets, including one that appeared to be a surefire sack.
This was the play where Jermaine Johnson tore his Achilles. However, Johnson was blocked out of the play on the opposite side. What gave Levis the running lane was Jalyn Holmes’ (No. 97) stunt inside. Tony Adams (No. 22) was put in a very tough spot as the lone defender in the area on the scramble drill, although perhaps he could have turned around more quickly when he saw the ball did not come.
Braiden McGregor’s (No. 91) swat at the ball rather than attempting to sack Levis, followed by Solomon Thomas’ missed sack, allowed Levis to scramble out and keep the Titans’ last-bid scoring drive alive. A sack here would have caused a 3rd-and-long situation with time ticking down.
Both of Nix’s rushing touchdowns came on scrambles near the goal line. It’s certainly a difficult spot to defend. Still, Jets defenders must not sit too far back and allow Nix easy access to the end zone.
On this play, the Seahawks ran a stunt to the field side with man coverage behind it. This was already likely to give Nix some space to run. It took Devon Weatherspoon (No. 21) too long to recognize that Nix was past the line of scrimmage and defend it accordingly. Nix may have gotten past him anyway, but it was a poor attempt.
Once again, Nix found plenty of running space to the field side. Although this was technically a scramble, the condensed split already placed fewer defenders to that side. Once SirVocea Dennis (No. 8) bit on the play-action (despite the lack of a real fake), he would have a hard time beating Nix to the corner of the end zone. Even so, Dennis did a terrible job reading the play, giving Nix a walk-in touchdown.
In the Jets-Broncos games last season, Russell Wilson had six scrambles for 49 yards (8.2 YPC).
No. 69 of the Broncos was four yards illegally downfield on this play, which should have been called for a penalty. This allowed him to block Quincy Williams (No. 56), who otherwise would have been in a position to potentially close the hole. At that point, Wilson had a lot of green grass, but Jordan Whitehead’s (No. 3) terrible tackling angle, followed by Tony Adams’ equally terrible job, allowed Wilson to gain an extra six yards. Missing tackles on scramble drills can make a bad play far worse.
In this year’s preseason, the Jets showed the troubles they can have against zone-read plays.
Although Robert Saleh claimed Micheal Clemons (No. 72) was not at fault for crashing on this play, Clemons’ lack of awareness in space gave Jayden Daniels a walk-in touchdown. He should have stopped once he saw the tight end did not crack-block.
Old friend Jordan Whitehead made the same mistake against Nix, resulting in a first down on 3rd-and-3.
Against quarterbacks with a run threat, the Jets should likely stop running as many exchanges at the line of scrimmage, inherently playing more conservatively rather than attacking a single gap with abandon. They must be aware of zone-read plays.
On pass plays, they must maintain gap integrity and keep Nix in the pocket. In particular, Will McDonald cannot allow himself to be easily run up the arc, exposing massive gaps in the defense.
Playing zone coverage should also help the Jets defend scrambles. All four of Nix’s interceptions came against zone, and he averages 4.8 yards per attempt with just 3.7 air yards per completion against it. When defenders don’t turn their backs to the quarterback, it’s easier to identify scrambles and rally quickly for the tackle. Still, some of Nix’s scrambles above came against zone coverage, so it’s not enough on its own.
The Jets may also want to minimize stunting against Nix. While they stunt frequently (and often successfully), stunts tend to expose holes for a running quarterback.
There isn’t much in the Broncos’ offense to fear. In the Jets-Broncos matchups in 2022 and 2023, Courtland Sutton has posted four combined receptions on 11 targets for 36 yards. The Broncos’ No. 2 receiver is Josh Reynolds, who, although averaging 15.8 yards per reception right now, has never posted more than 618 receiving yards in a season.
However, if Nix runs all over the Jets, this game could become too close for comfort. The Broncos beat the Buccaneers mostly on the strength of strong defensive play, short passing, and Nix’s rushing touchdown and 22-yard scramble. Their lack of weaponry on both sides of the ball won’t matter as much if this becomes a game of attrition.
Making Nix beat them with his arm should be the Jets’ primary defensive goal.
