Tim Boyle. Zach Wilson. Mike White. Joe Flacco.
Those are the names of the four starting quarterbacks from 2022-23 who lost games in which the New York Jets’ defense allowed under 150 passing yards.
Make room for Aaron Rodgers.
On Sunday, the Jets’ defense allowed the Denver Broncos’ offense to accumulate only 60 passing yards. In total, Denver’s offense finished with 186 yards, 10 points, and 12 first downs. The Jets’ defense generated a net value of 15.24 “expected points,” per Pro Football Reference, making it the Jets’ fifth-best defensive performance in the Robert Saleh era according to that metric. They were 4-0 in the previous four games in which the defense generated at least 15 expected points.
Yet… they lost. With. Aaron. Rodgers.
This was never supposed to happen again.
In Rodgers’ 15-year span as the Packers’ starter (2008-22), Green Bay went 31-1 in games where they allowed 10 points or less. The only loss came in a game that Rodgers left early with a concussion, making him essentially undefeated in these games.
The Jets, meanwhile, entered 2024 having lost an NFL-high six games when allowing 10 points or less since 2008, two more than any other team. Sunday’s game marked the seventh such loss, three more than any other team since 2008.
If you want to raise the bar to 16 points or less allowed, the Jets still had an NFL-high 19 losses and a 31st-ranked win percentage of .732 from 2008-23. Meanwhile, in games where Rodgers started and did not exit due to injury, Green Bay went 65-2 (.970).
Getting Rodgers was supposed to erase those dreary losses in which the defense got stop after stop, and it still wasn’t enough to come out victorious. Last year, the Jets had a 15-10 home loss to New England, a 13-8 home loss to Atlanta, and a 16-12 road loss to Las Vegas. The primary motivation of getting Rodgers at this stage of his career was not necessarily to craft an elite offensive juggernaut, but simply to raise the floor high enough to ensure these elite defensive performances would not go to waste. “If they had Rodgers, they win all 3 of those games!” is the phrase people threw around all offseason.
And they still can’t do it!
The roster built by New York going into this season was not impeccable by any means. To pretend they should be enjoying a flawless season of exuberant offensive play would be delusional. All of the hype surrounding this team was fully based on projection, not past performance. The Jets have not won more than seven games in a season since 2015.
But this particular type of loss was supposed to be completely off the table. By no means, should a Jets roster with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, a healthy Mike Williams, a healthy Tyron Smith, a healthy Garrett Wilson, a healthy Breece Hall, a surprisingly thriving Allen Lazard, and a surprisingly stellar Braelon Allen ever lose at home as 7.5-point favorites against a rookie quarterback who threw for 60 yards.
“It was rainy!”, “I’m getting doubled!”, and “We’re still building chemistry!” will be among the excuses. Yet, the Washington freakin’ Commanders and their rookie quarterback are out there ranked third in the NFL with 30 points per game.
New York’s season is not over because of this debacle. The team is 2-2, including 2-1 in the conference. They are one game back of the division lead with a home game against the team in front of them in two weeks. This is still one of the most talented rosters in the NFL on paper. Because of that talent, they are capable of forging a major turnaround and going on a long winning streak heading into the playoffs.
And therein lies the catch: “on paper.”
This team sure looks great in Madden. In real life, though, the facets of this team that are primarily responsible for making it look so good “on paper” are not playing anywhere close to their perceived talent level.
Garrett Wilson is averaging fewer receiving yards per game this season than Jamison Crowder did as a Jet.
Breece Hall is averaging fewer yards per carry than Frank Gore did in his one season as a Jet.
How much of that is either players’ fault is up for debate, but the Jets simply are not getting the results they expected from two of the players who most people would have ranked among the roster’s top-five best players entering the season. And until they do, it is hard to pretend this team is actually all that “talented” when guys like Jordan Mason, J.K. Dobbins, Malik Nabers, and Jauan Jennings have been out there running laps around them for four games now. At what point does production usurp perceived “talent”?
Wilson was viewed as a surefire No. 1 receiver going into this season. He was given the privilege of starting the season against four consecutive great cornerbacks, presenting him with an opportunity to affirmatively prove his standing among the league’s elite wide receivers.
Instead, he has been placed in a straightjacket in four consecutive games. Make all the excuses you want about how he’s being covered, but that can only apply for one or two games. Over a four-game stretch, superstars should figure out how to generate more than 191 yards and one touchdown. Wilson just isn’t making the catches or creating the separation that we became used to seeing in the past.
As for Hall, while his start to the season has been disappointing, it would be foolish to place all of the blame on him and ignore the underperformance of another widely-hyped facet of the team, the offensive line. For all of the name recognition on this unit – veteran stars, high draft picks – the run blocking looks no better than it did over the Jets’ past two seasons with a revolving door of scrubs. Hall is constantly getting hit behind the line of scrimmage. He deserves some slack, although it is fair to say that he has shown he is capable of making something out of nothing more often than he has so far.
Excuses for these parties were understandable for one, two, and even three games, but we are now almost a quarter of the way through the year. It’s time to put the past behind us and face the facts: until proven otherwise, this Jets team is exactly what they’ve shown us this year, regardless of what previous years may have shown about this team’s perceived talent level. And right now, they are a 2-2 team with an ugly blowout road loss against a contender, a narrow road win against a bad team whose quarterback made unforced errors, a pristine home blowout over a bad team, and a ghastly home loss against a bad rookie quarterback.
That… is not anything to write home about.
The Jets’ defense continues to thrive. After Sunday’s games, the Jets are allowing the fewest passing yards per game, the second-fewest total yards per game, and the sixth-fewest points per game. If I told you the Jets would have these rankings after four games, you’d probably expect them to have at least 3 and possibly 4 wins, with the full body of work looking like that of a true Super Bowl contender.
That’s not the case, because, for whatever reason, the New York Football Jets cannot stop treating their fans to eye-melting offensive play no matter who they put on the field. For the third straight year, the MetLife faithful are forced to sit in a rainy, cold, dreary sea of gray just to watch the offense look like a baby trying to take their first steps as it failed time and time again to get the one big play they needed to maximize a phenomenal defensive outing. They’d try so hard to do the simplest of tasks, and inevitably, you knew they would just fall flat on their rear ends over and over.
Pointing fingers is a fun exercise after losses like this, but the fact of the matter is that everyone can share the blame when a performance of this epic scale is put together. No one, two, or even three men can brunt the blame for zero touchdowns across 13 offensive possessions in a home game.
Coaching. Players. Management. Everyone bears part of the blame, and everyone needs to be better. Period. What more needs to be said?
