With the New York Jets’ season all but over, Jets fans’ eyes will turn toward 2025. Given the debacle of this season on and off the field, it’s hard to imagine the team would bring back Aaron Rodgers next year. As I explained previously, the Jets will have at least $90 million in dead cap next season if they clean house without any post-June 1 designations.
With that accounting, the Jets’ prospects of rebuilding for next season are not great. Sure, they can post-June 1 cut Rodgers and one other player to spread the cap pain over two years, but that would postpone the inevitable even more.
That begs the question of what the Jets should do with the players whom they do not intend to release in the offseason. If the team is rebuilding, who will be part of the rebuild, and who will be out? Anyone who won’t be part of the rebuild should be traded.
Furthermore, Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald broke down the career arcs of players at various positions, which should factor into trade considerations.
The Jets must be honest with themselves and decide whether these five core players are truly worth keeping for the long haul.
Alijah Vera-Tucker
The list of question marks starts with Alijah Vera-Tucker. Vera-Tucker will be under the fifth-year option for next season. He is still playing at an above-average level but has never strung together the kind of consistency the Jets expected from him when they traded up to draft him at No. 14 overall in 2021. He also missed another two games with a high-ankle sprain after playing a combined 12 games over the previous two seasons.
There are two questions: is Vera-Tucker worth $15.3 million to keep, or is it more worthwhile to trade him and try to find another guard? And what can the Jets get in return?
The answer to both questions may depend on how he performs the rest of the way. If he plays well, he may be worth $15.3 million. But at the same time, if he plays well, this may be the height of his value to trade him. Quality offensive line play is always hard to find in the NFL. Would a team like the Houston Texans trade for him? That would allow the Jets to maximize his value and insure against another injury.
Fitzgerald pointed out that guards tend to have a longer career arc than other positions, which could make keeping Vera-Tucker more attractive.
Quincy Williams
Quincy Williams will likely ask for an extension after the year because he is due only $6 million next season in the final year of his deal. As much as Jets fans love Williams, his level of play has not quite matched his hype this year.
As Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo has pointed out on many occasions, Williams’ lack of fundamentals and guesswork as a run defender often lead to the biggest plays the Jets’ run defense allows. Williams’ 46th percentile ranking in Pro Football Focus run defense grade (65.7) matches how he has actually performed on the field.
Williams also ranks in the 35th percentile in yards per coverage snap (1.084) and 63rd percentile in yards per target (7.66). His tackling has been better than usual (9.1% missed tackle rate, 69th percentile), but overall, his 66.8 PFF grade reflects how he’s played: mostly average.
Is it worthwhile to give a linebacker entering his age-29 season who is heavily reliant on speed an extension and a pay raise? Williams is obviously important for this Jets defense, but is he $20 million per year important? That is the top APY at linebacker (Roquan Smith).
More likely than not, the Jets will give Williams an extension. But the question needs to be asked about how long and for how much money that extension should be. He may not have much value on the open market due to his position, but a cost-benefit analysis must be made.
Signing a linebacker long-term during a rebuild is not wise. Fitzgerald wrote that a one-year extension is probably the wisest course of action if the Jets do not want to trade Williams.
Sauce Gardner
If questioning Quincy Williams’ long-term future with the team will be unpopular, listing Sauce Gardner here may label me a pariah. Nonetheless, the Jets must reckon with this question.
Gardner will first be eligible for a contract extension this offseason. Unless he massively turns around his play in the last seven games, the Jets should not give him one.
The Broncos gave Pat Surtain a four-year, $96 million extension after he had an off year in 2023. He was in the same position Sauce will be this offseason, coming off his third year. Perhaps giving Sauce the bag makes sense based on his first two years.
However, there is one fundamental difference between Surtain and Gardner: Surtain is an elite all-around player, while Gardner has only been an elite cover corner. Even in his “down” 2023 season, Surtain posted a 3.9% missed tackle rate (second-best mark at the position) and a 78.7 PFF run defense grade (10th-best). He has been a plus run defender and tackler for three consecutive seasons.
Meanwhile, while Gardner was okay in those areas as a rookie, his tackling and run defense have nosedived since. In 2023, he posted a 16.2% missed tackle rate and a 57.0 PFF run defense grade (both 23rd percentile among corners). In 2024, he’s somehow far worse at a 23.7% missed tackle rate (9th percentile) and 43.6 run defense grade (3rd percentile).
On a snap-by-snap basis, Gardner’s coverage has remained solid in 2024, as he ranks in the 66th percentile in yards per cover snap (0.863). However, considering how poor the other aspects of his game are, the Jets need him to be elite in coverage, not merely solid. Additionally, he has been prone to giving up the big play, as his 9.3 yards per target (9th percentile) and 15.7 yards per reception (5th percentile) indicate. Preventing the big play was exactly what made him so elite in the past.
The Jets cannot give Gardner a big deal this offseason. Even with his track record of his first two years, they need to see if his coverage rebounds. His concerning trends in the other areas of play also bear monitoring. His immaturity and excuse-making are alarming, as they indicate a lack of accountability and self-awareness.
Gardner’s back-to-back All-Pro seasons still indicate that he is likely worth keeping around. But what if he starts making noise about being disgruntled and starts down the holdout/hold-in road? The Jets cannot afford to let him push the envelope.
The new general manager (since it can’t and won’t be Joe Douglas) must make this clear to Gardner from the outset: the Jets will not negotiate a new contract with him in the offseason. Period. If he is disgruntled by that and will not buy in to the team, the Jets should trade him before the draft. They cannot afford to be stuck between a rock and a hard place during training camp.
There is a chance Gardner will demand a trade, anyway. Every indication is that he has checked out mentally and emotionally. If the Jets enter full rebuild mode, Gardner may decide he does not want to be a part of it. It’s tough for anyone to stick around the Jets right now.
Still, perhaps Gardner will sit it out and keep quiet. All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons did not get paid last offseason despite finishing third in the Defensive Player of the Year voting (after finishing second the previous two years). Not every player gets paid after their third season, no matter how good they are.
If he does go that route, the Jets should hang on to him. He was on a record trajectory beforehand, and nagging injuries may explain some of his struggles this season.
Fitzgerald asserted that the Jets’ stance on Gardner may depend on who their next head coach is and that coach’s team-building philosophy. A defensive-minded head coach would be more likely to sign Gardner long-term, while an offensive-minded one would seek the draft capital in return and build the team with their vision.
Either way, signing Gardner to an extension in the offseason should not be an option.
Garrett Wilson
Wilson’s situation is similar to Gardner’s. He will be eligible for an extension coming off his third season in the NFL.
Wilson seems more likely to demand a trade than Gardner. He was clearly disgruntled with the team in each of the last two seasons. Although he is not as immature or vocal on X as Gardner, his body language makes his stance clear. He voiced his frustration after the Cardinals game. The possibility that he would ask out was on the table before the season, and it could certainly happen. If he is that unhappy, the Jets should let him go.
However, if it comes down to a matter of money, things are trickier than with Gardner. National media narrative notwithstanding, Wilson is playing at a similar level to what he did last year, perhaps slightly better. His catch rate, yards per target, YAC per reception, yards per route run, contested catch rate, and drop rate are all better than in 2023.
The reality is simply that Wilson is not as good as the media hype made it seem. He is a good-but-not-great receiver. You cannot run an offense through him alone. The Jets certainly haven’t done a great job of utilizing his strengths, but nonetheless, he is not an alpha receiver.
On one hand, since the Jets know who he is, it is easier to justify paying him than Gardner. Wilson does not deserve top-of-the-market money. If he is willing to take a contract more like the ones DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle signed, perhaps it is worth getting him locked up a year earlier than a year later.
On the other hand, Smith and Waddle got their deals as the No. 2 receivers on win-now teams. Wilson does not have that alpha ahead of him right now, and the Jets will not be a win-now team. Perhaps they should just wait him out another year along with Gardner to see where he stands.
Additionally, maybe Wilson just isn’t good enough to justify paying that kind of money altogether. In that case, the Jets should trade him after the season and get whatever they can for him.
I believe there are more variables to the Wilson situation than the Gardner one. Perhaps a new general manager comes in more willing to negotiate with Wilson at a lower level. That would complicate any desire to move him, as it would be less likely to come before the draft.
Fitzgerald made a very bold claim about Wilson’s situation, contending that wide receivers’ career arcs are not that different than running backs’. He wrote, “The fall is a little more graceful and hidden from view but for the most part receivers peak in years two through four of their careers, usually are still playing at a high level in year five with a few hiccups, and then really start to decline in efficiency in year 6.” He added, though, that the outlier rate is a lot higher compared to running backs — more like 20% instead of 5%.
If this is true, signing Wilson to an extension would not be a wise proposition given the Jets’ lack of positioning to compete immediately.
Breece Hall
The Jets should trade Breece Hall if they can. But they probably couldn’t get much for him given his position and his complete lack of explosiveness this season. Therefore, it makes the most sense for them just to ride out the last year of his contract. Hall wouldn’t have a leg to stand on in demanding an extension due to his objectively poor numbers this year.
Overall, the Jets’ new general manager will need to make some difficult decisions about player personnel in the offseason. It is possible that how the team answers them will depend on whether they are in a position to draft a new quarterback. Regardless, virtually no Jets player is guaranteed a spot on next year’s team given how the season has gone off the rails.
